Off Leash Intel · loading
21 direct mentions across 21 briefings, with 24 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The mutual-defense commitment appears especially advantageous for Saudi Arabia, which is assessed as having the weakest military and facing the most immediate security threats among the pact’s three members.
Assessment development · updated through
The mutual-defense commitment appears especially advantageous for Saudi Arabia, which is assessed as having the weakest military and facing the most immediate security threats among the pact’s three members.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Saudi Arabia dossier
22 mapped developments across 9 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Israel and surrounding region
The United States organized defensive coordination involving Israel, the United Kingdom, France and Jordan. Saudi Arabia acknowledged providing intelligence, while Riyadh may have viewed participation as a way to build trust with Israel and counter Iran.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 10 August 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •A total solar eclipse will darken the skies of Russia, Greenland, Iceland, Portugal, and Spain on Wednesday. This NASA page (https://t.co/lHBqGIu6m6) shows the eclipse path and when a full or partial eclipse will be visible by location. •Zambia will vote in presidential and assembly elections on Thursday. President Hakainde Hichilema looks likely to win re-election, but Brian Mundubile's energetic opposition campaign has gained steam in recent weeks. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,280/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $34,242/ton •Bitcoin: $64,976 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $14,076/ton - U.S. futures hit a record high last week as supply disruptions drove worried buyers to hoard stocks to meet persistent demand from new technologies. •Ethereum: $1,916 •Gold: $4,339/toz •Lead: $1,887/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.76/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $78.53/barrel •Zinc: $3,707/ton GAZA •Israel formally rejected the 15-point disarmament plan that the Trump administration put forth - and Hamas agreed to - late last month. •Israel's rejection represented a rare break from Pres. Trump for Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is up for re-election in October. Netanyahu has likely calculated that his far-right support base would abandon him if he were to take Hamas's word that it will disarm and agree to withdraw Israeli forces from Gaza first. IRAN •Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Iran is "very close" to a deal with Oman to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but other Iranian officials then complicated the matter by tying a full reopening to a list of demands the U.S. must meet first. •Tehran's demands are the same concessions it's been seeking from the U.S. throughout negotiations: it wants the U.S. to lift its blockade on Iran, withdraw its military from the region, pay war reparations, release frozen Iranian funds, and pledge to never again attack Iran or its allies / proxies. •The White House didn't immediately respond to Iran's latest list of requirements, but Pres. Trump is unlikely to concede on all of those points just to reopen the Strait. He will want to keep some leverage to achieve other objectives in future negotiations - such as securing Iran's agreement to give up its highly enriched uranium. He may, though, make temporary or partial concessions like those offered in the June MOU. •Trump told reporters yesterday that he's not in a rush to reach a deal with Iran. Rather, he said, his negotiators are "low-keying it" and "only semi-negotiating" with Iran, which he believes will need to make a deal to stop runaway inflation and end a dire cash shortage. YEMEN •Yemen's struggling, internationally-recognized government retaliated against the Houthi rebels who reopened their long-simmering civil war with fresh attacks on government positions last week. •The Houthis control much of northern Yemen, and likely spied an opportunity to wrest more of the resource-rich south from government control while simultaneously enforcing a Red Sea blockade and mounting attacks on Saudi Arabia, which backs the government. DEFENSE •Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye signed a trilateral mutual defense pact after spending almost a year negotiating it. •Under the pact, members commit to joining forces to retaliate together against any attack against one of them. That clause seems like a big win for Saudi, which has the weakest military and faces the most imminent security threats of the three. •Turkish officials said the alliance would be open to welcoming more members in the future. Analysts suggest Egypt would be a good fit.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 August 2026 IRAN •Iran's National Security Commission is reportedly considering a bill - first proposed in March and since adapted - that would bar vessels linked to the U.S. or Israel from transiting the Strait of Hormuz until the U.S. and Israel pay Iran compensation for wartime damage. •Since there are no plans to pay Iran restitution, essentially every U.S. and Israeli transit would be considered a violation of the proposed rule, punishable by a fine of 20% of the value of the cargo aboard. For good measure, non-banned vessels would also have to pay Iran "navigation service fees" - in rials - for safe passage. •Iran may have been emboldened to demand more by a new leaked report that the U.S. has consumed 80% of its THAAD missiles - in addition to half to two-thirds of its Patriot interceptors, as previously reported. Pres. Trump repeated his insistence that the U.S. has "massive amounts" of munitions but conceded that supplies of some key components have become "tighter." RUSSIA •New U.S. intelligence reports conclude that Russia could try to test NATO's commitment to mutual defense by mounting a small-scale attack - cyber, sabotage, or a limited ground incursion - on a member of the alliance within the next few years. •That was previously inconceivable: for years, analysts were confident that Pres. Putin wouldn't dare attack a NATO member while he's still at war with Ukraine because he wouldn't want to risk drawing NATO into the war. His calculus may have now changed. •To that end, Lithuania's Defense Minister warned of intelligence suggesting that Russia may use Ukrainian drones in a "false flag" strike on one of the Baltic states to provoke a response and sow chaos. CEUTA •Ceuta's Mayor-President, Juan Jesús Vivas, criticized the Spanish national government's response to the influx of migrants that swarmed his exclave over the weekend as too little, too late. (On the other hand, the EU commended Madrid's response.) •Vivas claims thousands of migrants are still in Ceuta, but he noted that figure is uncomfortably uncertain: "The fact that we don't have numbers on how many are still in Ceuta shows how few resources we have to deal with this situation." YEMEN •There are rising whispers that Saudi Arabia may be planning a major seaborne military offensive against Yemen's Houthi rebels to break the Houthis' blockade on Saudi oil shipments and put an end to Houthi attacks on Saudi targets. The possible Saudi operation could include a ground offensive in central Yemen, too. •The Houthis aren't only targeting Saudi; they also attacked Yemeni military camps in Marib and Hadramout yesterday, killing 30 Yemeni soldiers. •The NYT writes that the Houthi attacks on government forces aren't necessarily connected to the Saudi conflict. Rather, Houthi leaders may spy an opportunity to consolidate their control over northern Yemen by wresting Marib province from a government that's struggling to administer it. Their interest in oil-rich Hadramout is likely motivated by a desire to cut off one of the government's most reliable remaining sources of funding. COLOMBIA •The Financial Times reported that members (and former members) of Colombian cartels, paramilitaries, and other armed groups are volunteering to fight for Ukraine in an effort to train in the latest drone warfare tactics so they can later deploy them against Colombia's government forces, who lack such training. •Neither Ukraine nor Colombia is pleased about the trend. Ukraine says it's expelling any volunteers with known criminal pasts to avoid training a possible future adversary. VENEZUELA •A new AtlasIntel / Bloomberg survey gave Venezuela's opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, her highest-yet level of popular support, with a 72% positive image rating. •Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, by contrast, polled at a 71% negative rating, with 65% of respondents explicitly disapproving of how she leads the executive branch and 58% rating her administration as "bad or very bad." •The poll also asked respondents how they would vote in a hypothetical presidential election: 57% said they'd support Machado, which is more than triple the 18% (mostly hard-line regime supporters) who said they'd vote for Rodriguez. That's precisely why Rodriguez is in no hurry to put the contest to a real vote. •Even a hypothetical election is bigger news than the dialogue that opened yesterday between Venezuela's government and a B-team of opposition figures that intentionally excluded Machado. Delegates exchanged some nice words about seeking a "political, peaceful, democratic and constitutional solution" - whatever that means.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 July 2026 EGYPT •An apparent Iranian drone attack damaged an American-owned tanker (and perhaps another Greek tanker, too) in the Mediterranean Egyptian port of Damietta - roughly 1,165 miles (1,875 km) from Iran. •Two anonymous Iranian officials told the NYT that the goal of the long-range attack was to show that Iran is capable of causing far-reaching disruptions to global shipping that affect energy supplies beyond the Strait of Hormuz. SAUDI ARABIA •Media reports suggested that Saudi Arabia's participation in U.S. airstrikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq are a sign that Saudi is reluctantly joining the U.S.'s war with Iran. •Saudi diplomats are rushing to counter that narrative and instead portray the Iraqi strikes as an isolated act of self-defense in response to drone and missile attacks the militias launched on Saudi oil facilities last week. They were perhaps also intended as a warning to Yemen's Houthi rebels that Riyadh isn't afraid to strike back when hit. •Crown Prince MBS dispatched Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman - MBS's brother and close confidante - to Washington to reiterate that message to Pres. Trump and Vice Pres. Vance and advocate for de-escalation. (Prince Khalid also sought to lobby to close a stalled deal to buy up to 48 F-35 fighter jets from the U.S.) RUSSIA •Russia's FSB charged exiled Telegram founder Pavel Durov with "facilitating terrorist activity" over Ukraine's use of the platform to "co-ordinate acts of sabotage and terrorism, mass killings and cyber-fraud operations," and issued an international arrest warrant for Durov. •The Kremlin's other qualm with Telegram is that 65 million Russians still use the platform daily (per Durov) to get real news instead of state-approved propaganda - despite the state's best efforts to ban Telegram and promote its state-backed alternative, MAX, instead. •Durov, who lives in Dubai, reacted to the charge by posting an old photo of him raising a middle finger on X. He's unlikely to be arrested in Dubai, but the outstanding warrant means he will need to be more careful when he travels. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan's Pres. Kiir sacked his central bank governor, Johnny Ohisa, and replaced him with economist Addis Ababa Othow. •Kiir offered no reason for removing Ohisa, but he probably hopes the public will blame Ohisa for the economic woes that have worsened on Kiir's watch - which include waning oil revenues, an acute cash shortage, rampant inflation, and currency devaluation. •In a sign that Kiir is running out of allies, his new appointee, Addis Ababa Othow, is not new to the role at all. He served as central bank governor last year - from June until November, when he was sacked and replaced by his successor-cum-predecessor, Ohisa. •Ohisa himself served three stints in the role - none lasting more than 14 months.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 July 2026 IRAN •U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) accused Iran of launching "an attempted surprise attack" on a U.S. military base in Jordan that punctured a brief pause in strikes that both sides had observed this week. •The U.S. and Saudi Arabia retaliated with strikes on the Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, who Saudi and CENTCOM accuse of launching strikes on Saudi infrastructure this week. [Saudi's strikes exacerbated tensions with Iraq over Baghdad's failure to rein in Iranian proxy militias like the PMF, and Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi cancelled a planned visit to Riyadh over the spat.] •Iran also doused hopes for stability in the Strait of Hormuz when it rejected Oman's proposal for jointly managing the chokepoint by assigning Iran and Oman each oversight over a lane of traffic passing through their territorial waters. Iran countered with a lopsided proposal that would leave it firmly in control of both lanes of traffic, and said the Strait would remain closed until Oman agreed to its proposal. •Iran's Navy enforced the Strait's closure once more when it "targeted and stopped" three oil tankers it accused of taking an "unsafe and illegal route" through the Strait (read: via Omani waters) . •Despite the resumption of fighting, Pres. Trump expressed optimism that ongoing "very deep talks with Iran" could soon lead to a peace agreement - but he also threatened "very strong military action" if talks collapse again. •Separately, Iran hanged two men convicted of killing police officers during widespread anti-regime protests in January. The public executions drew a rare backlash: videos showed demonstrators calling the executioners "shameless" and booing. Rights groups say the men - like other protesters Iran has sentenced to death in recent months - weren't given due process. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis claimed they targeted another Saudi tanker - the NCC Ghazal - in the Red Sea. •The Ghazal was at least the fourth Saudi ship the Houthis have targeted since announcing their blockade last week. They seem to be letting Chinese tankers carrying Saudi oil through, though. Reuters reported that Beijing interceded with Houthi leaders to secure a guarantee of safe passage for its tankers, and Chinese officials reportedly maintain a line of communication with Houthi commanders to clear each vessel's passage. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky met Pres. Trump at the White House yesterday. Zelensky likely sought Trump's support for reviving stalled efforts to engage Russia in peace talks - perhaps starting with a partial ceasefire in long-range airstrikes. GAZA •Israel's cabinet finally gave approval for the International Stabilization Force (ISF) to enter Gaza on Sunday. •The ISF will initially deploy up to 200 troops - lent from Kosovo, Albania, Morocco, and potentially Kazakhstan - with a mandate to start restoring basic services and aid distribution in areas that neither Israel nor Hamas control (though Israel says the ISF will operate "in full coordination" with its military). •The ISF's deployment is the principal security foundation for implementing the 20-point Gaza peace plan announced in October 2025, but Israel withheld approval for the ISF to get started because it wanted Hamas to agree to disarm first. The Israeli cabinet seemed to relax that demand earlier this month, after Morocco became the first Arab country to commit troops to the ISF.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 July 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump said there have been "very friendly negotiations going on" with Iran during the lull in fighting that he announced on Sunday to allow for talks, but Iran - as usual - denied that any direct talks were taking place. There are probably some backchannel or indirect dealings taking place. • Iran has also used the reprieve to hold talks with Oman. Several rounds of bilateral negotiations produced a new Omani proposal for controlling traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. •Under Oman's proposal, Oman, Iran, and other members of a regional consortium would collect a "voluntary service fee" for providing "security" to vessels transiting any of three proposed shipping lanes: two through Iranian and Omani territorial waters that are already seeing slow traffic, plus an international lane in the middle that would reopen after Iran removes the mines it planted there. •Some analysts say the Omani proposal resembles how the Strait of Malacca is jointly managed by Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia. There, ships voluntarily pay for services they use. But there are some key differences between Malacca and Hormuz that will make Hormuz harder to manage with that model. •For one, Malacca is a much busier chokepoint and ships are more likely to need - and be willing to pay for - navigational guidance and emergency services. By contrast, the biggest risk in Hormuz is the belligerence of one of its proposed guardians, who is now angling to extort fees for refraining from attacking vessels under its protection. [The NYT had an excellent analysis comparing the two chokepoints earlier this month; you can read it here (https://t.co/MQYv50XoYT).] •Iran has not yet agreed to the Omani proposal and will likely bristle at the idea of assuming responsibility for de-mining the middle lane, but its negotiators are reportedly engaging flexibly in talks. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis are eyeing Iran's success in using its control of the Strait of Hormuz to extract concessions, and - in the words of Yemen's Foreign Minister - "want to copy the Iranian model" in the Red Sea. •They're likely further emboldened by the lack of consequences Iran has faced for its aggression in Hormuz, and by Pres. Trump's warning that he would hold Iran - not its Houthi proxies - responsible for future Houthi strikes on ships in the Red Sea. •Meanwhile on land, Houthi forces are mobilizing in areas they control ahead of what could be a return to full-scale war. Houthi and government forces are already engaging in relatively minor skirmishes along a long-frozen front line in Dhale in the south west. •Analysts suggest the Houthis might struggle more in a new round of fighting, now that the government side is better organized and enjoys stronger backing from Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and UK. That could cause them to think twice about re-engaging in war. TURKEY •Ozgur Ozel - the deposed leader of Turkey's longstanding opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) - launched a new party appropriately called the New Party (YP). •Ozel's frustrations with the CHP resonated with many other CHP parliamentarians, and over 90 of them defected from the CHP to join Ozel in the YP. With their defections, the YP surpassed the CHP to become the largest opposition party in parliament within only a week of its conception. •The YP must now quickly organize a national congress and provincial party offices in at least half of Turkey's 81 provinces if it wants to contest the next presidential election, which could take place next year. •Pres. Erdogan won't be pleased to have a new challenger, and will likely seek ways to stymie the YP's momentum. The CHP can attest to that: its presidential candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu, is imprisoned on spurious charges. HAITI •Haiti's electoral council announced plans to hold presidential and legislative elections on December 13, with a presidential runoff scheduled for Feb. 21, 2027 if no candidate secures a majority - which seems likely, given that 300 political parties plan to field a candidate in the first round. •Many Haiti watchers are skeptical that the first round will take place before year's end. Gangs still influence much of Haiti including part of the capital. The UN recently warned that thugs are trying to "capture the systems of government." •Separately, roughly 330,000 Haitians in the U.S. lost their Temporary Protected Status yesterday, and the Trump administration plans to start deporting them back to Haiti on weekly flights to Cap Hatien in the north, where gangs don't have a strong presence. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's interim government said it would start talks with the opposition on Saturday. •But those talks already seem doomed to fail. The opposition's exiled leader, Maria Corina Machado, said she wouldn't participate because her coalition was left out of the planning phase, insinuating that the dialogue mechanism the government planned would be slanted in its favor. Analysts outside of Venezuela agree: one said the talks are "largely a staged process." •The process faces criticism from the other side, too. Hardliners within the government see it as an imposition the U.S. forced upon pliant interim president Delcy Rodriguez after capturing her predecessor and installing her in his place. •Pugnacious Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello reassured hardliners that government negotiators wouldn't give the opposition an inch: "dialogue doesn’t mean capitulation."
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 July 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today, North Korea celebrates Victory Day - a commemoration of the Korean War armistice that was neither a victory nor a real end to the war (which is technically still ongoing). •Peru's president-elect, conservative Keiko Fujimori, takes office tomorrow, following her slim victory over leftist Roberto Sánchez in the June 7 runoff. Like other modern conservative leaders in Latin America, Fujimori has pledged to effect market-friendly reforms and crack down on crime. •The Commonwealth Games close on Sunday in Glasgow. •Delegates to OPEC+ - a cartel of oil-producing nations - meet Sunday to set output targets for September. Analysts expect them to agree to another modest production increase of about 180,000 barrels per day - about the same added in each of the past three months. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,160/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $34,315/ton •Bitcoin: $65,200 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,645/ton •Ethereum: $1,964 •Gold: $4,091/toz •Lead: $1,887/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.74/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $84.09/barrel •Zinc: $3,592/ton IRAN •The Pentagon signaled a pause in strikes on Iran, ending two weeks of nightly strikes. •The top U.S. military commander in the Middle East - CENTCOM Commander Adm. Bradley Cooper - reportedly advocated the pause, reasoning that the current campaign had succeeded in taking out 80% of CENTCOM's high-priority targets and had reached the limit of its effectiveness against the remaining 20%, which are harder to hit. •Other U.S. military advisors - including Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine - backed the pause for a more concerning reason. They worry that Iran's retaliatory fire has depleted the U.S.'s regional inventory of Patriot interceptors and other air defenses, leaving U.S. military sites and other targets in Gulf countries vulnerable to incoming strikes - like the ballistic missile that slipped through to kill three U.S. soldiers in Jordan last week. •Iran reciprocated and announced that it, too, would pause strikes. UKRAINE •Ukraine irked Iran on Saturday when it struck "vessels used in military cargo shipments involving Iran" in the Caspian Sea. •Iran accused Ukraine of acting "at Israel's behest," but the Caspian strikes also served Kyiv's interests: the vessels they targeted were reportedly transporting Iranian-made drones to Russia to be used against Ukraine. [Iran's Foreign Ministry unconvincingly denied that charge, saying Iran "has never intervened in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine."] YEMEN •Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi rebels exchanged more fire over the weekend. •Saudi targeted Houthi military sites in Hodeida in return for Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea, and the Houthis retaliated with missile strikes that damaged a Saudi oil refinery near Jizan. •The Houthis also tried to target a second Saudi oil refinery near Yanbu, but Greek operators used a U.S.-made Patriot air defense system to intercept at least two Houthi missiles. INDIA •India's Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) won its feud with scandal-plagued education minister Dharmendra Pradhan, and Pradhan tendered his resignation. •Pradhan was one of Prime Minister Modi's most loyal deputies, so his resignation is a blow to Modi, who styles himself as a strongman whose ministerial choices are unaccountable to public approval. Pradhan is only the second Modi-appointed minister to resign - despite Modi's best efforts to insulate him from the fallout from scandals that happened on his watch. •CJP "members" and supporters were jubilant to see their street protests effect change, and many are now motivated to turn their sights on other targets in Modi's government that are overdue for reform. For starters, they want deeper changes to India's broken exam system and are demanding that the government drop the criminal cases it opened against some of them during protests. MALI •The Trump administration is reportedly considering carrying out military strikes against Al Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) militants in Mali. •U.S. intervention against JNIM would serve a secondary purpose beyond doing Mali's feckless military a favor by hobbling an adversary that regularly outfoxes them. If successful, it would show that the U.S. can succeed where the junta's hired Russian guns have failed, and thereby cast the Russians as ineffective security partners - not only in Mali, but in other African countries that work with Russia's Africa Corps. •One U.S. official alluded to this ulterior motive in an unattributed interview with the Washington Post: "We hope that other African nations take note of Russia’s terrible performance in combating terrorism." SUDAN •Sudan's military boasted that it had recaptured the Al Sadarat highway from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) over the weekend. •Al Sadarat is a key link between the government-controlled capital of Khartoum and the North Kordofan regional capital of el Obeid, which is under an RSF siege and looks likely to be the prize in the next major battle between the RSF and the military. Control of Al Sadarat will allow the military reopen a much faster supply route that it can use to equip its troops in the fight for el Obeid.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 July 2026 SAUDI ARABIA •The U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal announced Wednesday may fall apart before its Congressional critics even have a chance to oppose it. Less than 24 hours after it was signed, Pres. Trump added a new condition requiring Saudi to join the Abraham Accords - and thus normalize relations with Israel - in exchange for U.S. permission and help building a civilian nuclear program. •Diplomatic recognition of Israel has been a non-starter for Saudi's Crown Prince MBS since Israel began its war in Gaza, although MBS was cautiously open to the idea pre-2022. If Trump doesn't walk back his new condition, MBS will certainly back out of this week's deal, which was over 20 years in the making. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis seem to be selectively enforcing the blockade they announced on Saudi Arabian exports earlier this week. •They struck two Saudi tankers yesterday, but allowed two Chinese-owned tankers carrying Saudi oil to pass through Bab al Mandeb - though those were loaded at Saudi's Yanbu port before the Houthis announced their blockade. Several more Chinese tankers are now loading Saudi oil at Yanbu, and analysts are watching to see how the Houthis treat them. •On the one hand, China is the Houthis' second-greatest benefactor (after Iran) and supplies the Houthis with key military kit like drone components, so the Houthis will hesitate to bite the hand that feeds them. That's what happened in 2023-5, when the Houthis attacked U.S.- and Israel-linked vessels in solidarity with Hamas, but spared Chinese ships. But on the other hand, the Houthis are - as one analyst pointed out - "quite mercurial and there is no complete clarity on what the blockade means." IRAN •Pres. Trump antagonized Iran by vowing to use frozen Iranian funds - which Tehran has desperately sought to unfreeze to pay for post-war reconstruction - to pay for damage Iran's strikes in the Strait of Hormuz cause to ships and cargo. •Trump called it "the fair and equitable thing to do," while Iran's Foreign Minister said it sent an "incendiary precedent" and issued a rival threat: "Those who celebrate or profit from such funds should remember: once governments normalise confiscation, no one’s assets are safe. Ensuing chaos will not be pretty or peaceful." •Separately, Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi delivered a new U.S. ceasefire proposal to Iran's leaders, who rejected it immediately. It was probably not a serious proposal, anyway: it's hard to imagine Pres. Trump would extend a real olive branch after bombing Iran nightly for nearly a fortnight and weighing whether to launch the "largest ever" U.S. military strike on Iran. •It was reportedly another temporary ceasefire that ignored the most prescient question of who keeps control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 July 2026 UKRAINE •Ukraine struck two more warehouses belonging to Russia's largest retailer, Wildberries, in Krasnodar and Stavropol, destroying an estimated $1 billion in goods. •Pres. Zelensky has justified the strikes with (probably correct) claims that Wildberries sells goods like commercial drones that Russian soldiers are weaponizing against Ukraine, but by targeting a storefront that sells to almost half of Russia's population and sustains at least half a million small businesses that sell on the platform, Zelensky is also achieving his goal of "bringing the war back home" to Russia. •Many small-scale sellers reported losing their entire inventory, leaving them without a way to repay the high-interest rate loans they used to buy the destroyed stock. •Wildberries - likely at the Kremlin's instruction - said it would compensate some of its "most vulnerable" sellers for their losses. It will also need to invest in rebuilding its warehouses with better defenses against future attacks, now that Ukraine has seen how effective its strikes have been. SAUDI ARABIA •As anticipated, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed a deal yesterday allowing Saudi to build a civilian nuclear program using American technology and know-how. •Congress must review it before it goes into effect, and it has some critics in Congress who worry about nuclear proliferation. •The NYT astutely observed that the Saudi deal was missing two of the key safeguards against nuclear proliferation that bound a similar deal the U.S. struck with the UAE in 2009: an explicit commitment not to make nuclear fuel, and permission for IAEA inspectors to carry out inspections on short notice and with a wide remit. •The Saudis reportedly refused both provisions. Analysts say the possibility that Saudi could make its own nuclear fuel raises the risk that it could divert its nuclear resources towards a weapons program. [Crown Prince MBS has already said he would build nuclear weapons if Iran does.] •Some also suggested that Iran might see the lax deal the U.S. allowed Saudi to get away with and raise its expectations for what a possible U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could permit. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthi rebels struck two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea yesterday, making good on their threats to enforce a "maritime embargo" on Saudi Arabia. •They also claimed to have forced "10 ships to retreat and return," and shipping data confirmed that at least six vessels reversed course in the Red Sea since the Houthis announced their blockade on Monday. •U.S. SecState Rubio warned the Houthis against getting involved in their benefactor's war, but they're unlikely to heed his warning. VENEZUELA •The Financial Times estimated that the U.S. has received $13 billion in revenue from its sales of Venezuelan oil this year, but called out that only $3 billion of the proceeds has been remitted to Caracas in a transparent way. The Trump administration's critics are calling on the White House to explain where the other $10 billion is. AI •OpenAI divulged that two of its frontier models went rogue during testing and successfully hacked a digital library belonging to another company - Hugging Face - without being prompted to do so. •The incident served to validate concerns that the latest AI models are advancing beyond a level that humans can comprehend well enough to control, and could expose new cybersecurity vulnerabilities faster than humans can patch them.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 July 2026 UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky heeded protesters' calls and fired his top general, Oleksandr Syrskyi. •Syrskyi had clashed with ex-defense minister Mykhailo Federov over Federov's innovative (and, Syrskyi would say, disruptive) approach to war, and Syrskyi appeared to prevail when Federov was sacked last week. •The decision to fire Federov proved deeply unpopular with Ukrainians who credit his drone program with turning the tide of the war in Ukraine's favor. Tens of thousands turned out for rare street protests calling for Federov's reinstatement and Syrskyi's removal, with slogans like "Fedorov is innovation, old grandpas are degeneration." •They got their wish regarding Syrskyi's removal, but betting markets are placing only a 45% (but rising) chance on Federov being reinstated this week. Federov clashed with other members of the old guard besides Syrskyi, and reinstating him would build resentment among Syrskyi's supporters. •That may be a price Pres. Zelensky is willing to pay to continue the momentum that Federov's drones won for Ukraine. Zelensky appointed a Federov ally as Syrskyi's replacement and promised to reinstate Federov in a "prominent position." Federov has said he wouldn't settle for any position ranking lower than his previous post. SAUDI ARABIA •The U.S. plans to announce a deal to allow Saudi Arabia to build a civilian nuclear program imminently. •That won't sit well with Israel, which is perpetually concerned about its Arab neighbors using a civilian nuclear program as a stepping stone to developing nuclear weapons. •Moreover, many in Israel see today's U.S.-Saudi deal as a snub to Israel, which - before the Oct. 7 attacks - reportedly hoped to trade its approval of a Saudi civilian nuclear program for Saudi diplomatic recognition. This deal forces Israel to concede its side of that trade for nothing in return. INDIA •India's youth-led protests for education reform risk spilling over into a broader movement criticizing Prime Minister Modi's government for its treatment of demonstrators. •Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi joined in the criticism of Modi's government, and was arrested after staging a sit-in outside Modi's house and calling for Modi's removal over police brutality against protesters. •Meanwhile, Modi's education minister - who was the main target of frustrated demonstrators - has barely addressed calls for exam reforms, saying only that he was "committed" to improvements. The protesters want him out. DRC •DRC's Pres. Tshisekedi acquiesced to the opposition's demands for an inclusive national dialogue under the oversight of the religious leaders who joined him in the room for his announcement. •Seemingly appeased, opposition parties duly cancelled the protest they'd scheduled for today. To me, it seems strange that Tshisekedi's critics would be satisfied with the mere promise of talks while their chief grievance - Tshisekedi's "constitutional coup" to remain in power beyond his term - is still moving forward. SOCIAL MEDIA •France became the first European country to pass a social media age ban, with a new law restricting youths under 15 from accessing social media - or using cell phones in school - after classes resume in the fall. Somewhat ironically, Pres. Macron announced the new social media ban on social media. •Australia was the first country to impose a social media ban for youth, and its ban hasn't been a resounding success. Early studies show that 85% of Australian teens under 16 were still using restricted social media platforms six months after they were ostensibly banned from them (the ban at least inspired some creativity: many teens reported using clever tricks like fake moustaches to skirt the ban). •France's ban seems equally unlikely to work.
Open source reportSaudi Arabia could bypass the claimed blockade by using western ports and shipping north through the Suez Canal, and that Houthi messaging is aimed primarily at a domestic audience.
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 July 2026 IRAN •On Pres. Trump's orders, the U.S. military opened a new round of hostilities with Iran focused on breaking Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. airstrikes targeted dozens of sites linked to Iran's coastal defenses and attack boats, and U.S. warships resumed a military blockade of Iran's ports. •Trump also revived his use of ultimatums to threaten Iran back to the negotiating table, warning that he would order the destruction of Iran's power plants and bridges if its leaders don't "get to the table and negotiate." •On the other hand, Trump walked back his announced plan to levy fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, saying that Gulf countries - who would've borne the brunt of a fee - have instead committed to investing in the U.S. •Oil suppliers seem to think the conflict will drag on. They're doubling down on efforts to develop alternative routes to market that bypass the Strait. Dubai-based port operator DP World, for one, announced plans to build a new port and container terminal on UAE's east coast, outside of the Strait. •These alternate routes could come into use fairly quickly. Goldman Sachs estimates that current and planned pipelines and export infrastructure will be able to carry over 45% of pre-war Gulf oil export volumes by the end of 2027, and over 60% by the end of 2028. UK •A new UK inquiry found Iran indirectly responsible for a spate of arson and vandalism attacks blamed on one of its proxies, the Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right (ICMR), and declared Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) to be a national security threat. •Parliament will vote on whether to ban the ICMR and IRGC later this week. If MPs approve bans, it would raise the stakes for members of the ICMR doing Iran's bidding, since committing sabotage on behalf of a banned group is punishable by up to life imprisonment - as opposed to far more lenient sentences for those convicted of the same crimes without a link to a banned group. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis readily heeded Saudi Arabia's call to arms and declared the "de-escalation phase" of their war over after four years of fragile peace. •Analysts worry about the renewed conflict in southern Arabia spilling over into a broader regional conflict, with the Houthis on Iran's side targeting Gulf countries from the south while Iran lashes out at them from the east. [That was probably Saudi Crown Prince MBS's concern as well when he asked Pres. Trump to condone the strikes that reignited war with the Houthis.] CHINA •New data showed that China's economy grew just 4.3% between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026. It was China's slowest GDP growth rate since 2022 and fell short of the government's target of 4.5-5.0%. The war in Iran and weak domestic demand and investment held growth back, while a rise in tech exports dampened the drag on growth.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 May 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump said he delayed a "very major attack" against Iran that was planned for Tuesday to allow ongoing "serious negotiations" to play out, after the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE asked him for more time to try to secure a deal that addresses Iran's nuclear program. •It's not clear how serious the ongoing negotiations truly are. Most media reports suggest that Iran's latest counterproposal was essentially identical to the previous one, which Trump rejected as "garbage" after reading the first page. Iranian state media, though, said the current proposal had "narrowed the gaps." •SecState Rubio expressed very cautious optimism about "slight progress" towards a ceasefire deal with Iran, but reports that Iran and Oman are in talks about creating a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz suggest otherwise. Rubio drew a red line with a warning that a tolling system "would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible." ISRAEL •A new Washington Post report found that the U.S. launched more interceptors (300) defending Israel against incoming attacks than Israel launched in its own defense (190). •The U.S. focused its efforts on intercepting high-altitude ballistic missiles coming from Iran, consuming over 200 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors - or around half its pre-war THAAD arsenal - plus around 100 Standard Missile-3 and Standard Missile-6 interceptors. •Meanwhile, Israel focused on intercepting lower-altitude incoming fire from Iranian proxies - the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon - using nearly 100 Arrow 3 missiles and around 90 David Sling interceptors. •Kelly Greico - an analyst at the Stimson Center - pointed out that interceptors used for Israel's defense reduce the arsenal available for defending against other adversaries: "That bill risks coming due in theaters that have nothing to do with Iran." EBOLA •The World Health Organization (WHO) has now documented 750 suspected cases of Ebola with 177 suspected Ebola deaths in the latest outbreak, which the WHO only confirmed last weekend and has since upgraded to a "very high" risk of spread within DRC. •Public health experts believe the new Ebola outbreak confirmed in DRC and Uganda over the weekend has been raging for weeks, and will be much harder to contain because of the delay in reporting and confirming it. •This outbreak originated in DRC's insurgency-ridden Ituri province, which has been run by a military government under a "state of siege" since 2021. Public services - including health - often take a backseat to security matters, which could explain why health officials didn't sound the alarm when they first started to see patients with possible Ebola symptoms. •Testing shortfalls also delayed Ituri's outbreak response. The region's Ebola test kits only test for the most common Ebola species, Zaire, and returned negative results. It was only when regional health officials sent tissue samples to Kinshasa - apparently weeks after the first symptoms appeared - that the Bundibugyo species of Ebola was identified. CHINA •Pres. Trump told reporters he planned to speak with Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te before deciding to sell arms to Taiwan. It would be the first time since 1979 that a sitting U.S. president or president-elect has spoken with the leader of Taiwan - though there have been official communications at less senior levels since then. •Beijing blamed Taiwan for the "petty action" of enticing Trump to break from precedent and engage at the highest level, but there's a good chance that Trump floated the idea with Xi Jinping when they met last week: Trump first mentioned he might reach out to Lai immediately upon returning from his summit with Xi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 May IRAN •U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly been painting a very different picture of Iran's surviving military capabilities in classified briefings than the outlook we're hearing from Pres. Trump and Secretary of War Hegseth. •The agencies assess that Iran has regained operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, and could use the sites to target both military and commercial traffic through the chokepoint. •The agencies also estimated that Iran has restored access to around 90% of its underground launch and storage facilities, and retains about 70% of its prewar mobile launchers and its prewar missile stockpile (which includes both cruise and ballistic missiles). •Pres. Trump insists his starker assessments - e.g., that Iran has been "crushed" and has "nothing left in a military sense" - are accurate, and accused reporters who suggest otherwise of "virtual treason." •Separately, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia carried out several quiet retaliatory strikes on Iran early in the war. It was the first known time that Saudi has directly struck Iran, and Riyadh apparently made it clear to Tehran that it wanted it to be the last, for now: soon after the strikes, Saudi diplomats engaged their Iranian counterparts in de-escalation talks. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Some optimists had hoped the three-day ceasefire Pres. Trump helped broker between Ukraine and Russia could be extended, but Russia's resumption of strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure has ended those hopes. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu's fragile ruling coalition finally looks set to collapse after Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox coalition partners took umbrage at his plans to postpone legislation to shield their Haredi community from military service. (Netanyahu's rationale was that the measure lacked sufficient support in the current parliament and would have been rejected.) •The ultra-Orthodox Degel HaTorah faction responded angrily to the delay, saying it has "no trust in Netanyahu anymore" and calling a vote to dissolve parliament next week. •If that vote passes, new elections must be held within three months - far sooner than the current Oct. 27 deadline. •That's a problem for Netanyahu, who is trailing right-wing former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in polls. But Netanyahu has survived tougher challenges before. •Separately, a two-year Israeli investigation concluded that Hamas and its allies perpetrated widespread sexual violence during and after the Oct. 7 attacks. It is the most comprehensive report of its kind yet, and will give prosecutors an ample base of evidence to use as they try Hamas militants for their crimes. NIGERIA •Nigeria's military was accused of another massacre of civilians in its errant pursuit of jihadist militants in the north. •The latest incident occurred on Sunday in Zamfara state: airstrikes on a market in Tumfa targeted a terrorist hideout, and - according to Amnesty International - killed over 100 civilians instead. •The military repeated the same response it always has to reports like this: it said it was only targeting militants and has seen no evidence of civilian casualties yet, but promised to investigate.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 DEC GAZA •Former senior Shin Bet official Shalom Ben Hanan told the NYT that Hamas is "still standing" despite its two-year war with Israel. •Ben Hanan cited official estimates that Hamas still has around 20,000 active fighters after quickly replacing its casualties. •Hamas also appears to be reasserting its role in policing Gaza - though its senior officials insist they'll be willing and ready to cede power to an appointed transitional government once one is formed. DRC •Just days after signing a document in the White House Oval Office reaffirming a U.S.-brokered peace deal with the DRC, Rwanda's Pres. Kagame's proxy M23 invaded further into DRC territory in direct defiance of President Trump's peace efforts. •Local reports suggest the M23 is bringing in reinforcements from Rwanda, and leveraged the added troop strength to capture the village of Luvungi near the Burundian border. •Analysts also spotted signs that the rebels used freshly-supplied Rwandan surface-to-air missiles, armed drones, and jammers. •Burundi - which is receiving thousands of fleeing civilians – echoed these reports and blamed Rwanda for the chaos. Its Foreign Minister accused Kigali of "playing a double game. It claims to be negotiating and signing agreements, but in the meantime, it is intensifying attacks on the civilian population with kamikaze drones that kill instinctively.” YEMEN •The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) separatist coalition announced that it had captured not only Hadramout, but all eight of Yemen's southern governates - including the port of Aden. •The STC's claim is credible but unconfirmed, and Saudi Arabia may still mount some resistance in defense of the government it was backing in Aden. •STC control of the south would mark a major change in the course of Yemen's long-running civil war. It would also increase the likelihood of Yemen ultimately re-fracturing into the two countries that comprised it before unification.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 Oct RUSSIA •Pres. Putin reacted angrily to new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, which Pres. Trump imposed in frustration with Putin's refusal to engage in Ukraine ceasefire talks. Putin called the new measures an "unfriendly act" and chided the foreign buyers complying with them that "no self-respecting country" would cave to such pressure. •Yet Russia's major customers, including India and China, are indeed curtailing their purchases of seaborne Russian oil because of the new sanctions - at least in the short term. Oil prices rose 5% on expectations of greater competition to buy non-sanctioned oil. VENEZUELA •Two supersonic U.S. B-1 bombers flew close enough to Venezuela yesterday to cause concern for Nicolas Maduro, who is probably uneasily watching the skies for signs that Pres. Trump has begun to launch the land strikes he's been threatening. •The U.S. Lancers remained in international airspace, and Pres. Trump later rejected initial Pentagon suggestions that the sorties were part of an "attack demonstration" to intimidate Maduro. But - given recent escalatory rhetoric from both sides - this looks like more of a preview than a false alarm. SUDAN •According to media reports, representatives of "The Quad" - Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the U.S. - are meeting in Washington today to mediate between the warring sides of Sudan's civil war. •Alas, neither the army nor the Rapid Support Forces seem ready to talk peace. Both deny that they're even engaging in indirect talks, and both continue to stock up on weapons - despite an (apparently ineffective) arms embargo. NIGER •Suspected jihadist gunmen kidnapped an American missionary, Kevin Rideout, from his home just 100 meters (300 feet) from the presidential palace in Niamey. •Rideout's abduction will be a painful reminder to the junta - which operates from the presidential palace - of how badly it has failed to contain jihadists and restore security since taking power in July 2023. •Both Islamic State's Sahel Province (ISSP) and the Al Qaeda-linked Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) are active in Niger and across its porous borders, and both have abducted Westerners for ransom in recent years. But it was probably ISSP - rather than JNIM - that abducted Rideout, whose cell phone was last traced to an ISSP-ridden area north of Niamey. WEST BANK •Vice Pres. Vance and Pres. Trump both categorically rejected the Israeli Knesset's preliminary vote on a proposal to annex much of the West Bank. •Vance - speaking from Israel - called it an "insult" and a "very stupid political stunt," and Trump vowed that "Israel would lose all of its support from the United States" if the measure wins full approval. •Most of Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party would agree with Vance that the proposal was an opposition stunt designed to provoke outcry, and the bill is unlikely to clear the remaining three votes it would need to pass. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 June 2025 IRAN •U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff proposed new terms for a nuclear deal with Iran. Under this proposal, Iran could continue to enrich uranium to levels used for nuclear power plants (around 3%) - but not to weapons grade levels - while the U.S., Iran, and other countries flesh out a more detailed long-term agreement. •The NYT said Witkoff's proposal "would amount to a bridge between the current situation, in which Iran is rapidly producing near-bomb-grade uranium, and the U.S.’s goal: no uranium enrichment at all on Iranian soil." [Instead, Iran could partner with Oman or Saudi Arabia in a closely-monitored consortium carrying out enrichment.] •Iran said it would respond in the coming days. UKRAINE •The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a new study estimating Ukraine War casualties at almost 1.4 million killed and wounded: nearly a million Russians and about 400,000 Ukrainians. •CSIS also noted that Russia's forward progress has stagnated at just ~165 feet (50 meters) per day in some places along the front. That's slower than the grueling UK / French advance in WWI's Battle of the Somme. •Separately, Pres. Zelensky reshuffled his military leadership, relieving army chief Mykhailo Drapatyi of some of his organizational responsibilities, like training new recruits "so that he can concentrate on the front 100%." •Drapatyi faced criticism for a devastating Russian strike on a military training ground that killed 12 on June 1 and had offered to resign over it, but then he partly redeemed himself by leading the effort to stabilize the front lines in Pokrovsk, Donetsk in the ensuing days. SYRIA •Militants fired rockets from Syria into the Golan Heights for the first time in a year yesterday. •Israel quickly blamed Syria's new government under interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa - who Israeli Defense Minister Katz said would be held "directly responsible for every threat and [rocket] fire toward the State of Israel" - and retaliated with artillery fire on the source of the rockets, as well as a series of airstrikes targeting what it said were government weapons. •Eager to avoid fresh conflict, Syria's Foreign Ministry vehemently denied involvement: "Syria has never been and will never be a threat to anyone in the region." TRADE •U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum rose from 25% to 50% today. Pres. Trump said the doubled rate is designed to protect domestic producers from competition from cheaper foreign rivals: "At 25%, [foreign producers] can sort of get over that fence. At 50%, they can no longer get over the fence." •The White House also sent U.S. trading partners letters yesterday "to give them a friendly reminder that the deadline is coming up" (as press secretary Karoline Leavitt put it) to strike a deal avoiding new tariffs. OTHER NEWS •As anticipated, the European Central Bank confirmed Bulgaria's accession to the euro today. Prime Minister Rossen Jeliazkov celebrated the event as "a remarkable day," but some traditionalists protested against a change that they fear will raise prices and erode national identity.
Open source reportOff Leash update 14 April 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •The 2025 World Expo opened yesterday in Osaka, Japan. •Pres. Trump hosts El Salvador's Pres. Bukele at the White House today and Italy's Prime Minister Meloni on Thursday. •U.S. markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday, and Easter is this Sunday. •Saturday is the 250th anniversary of the start of the American Revolution. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,397/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $28,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,700/ton •Copper: $9,155/ton •Gold: $3,223/toz •Lead: $1,914/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.47/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $62.03/barrel •Zinc: $2,652/ton IRAN •The U.S. and Iran held their first bilateral talks since 2018 on Saturday in Oman. Both sides seemed pleased with how it went, so they'll continue with a second round of talks starting Saturday in Rome. •Some (including me) had worried that the U.S. might make uncompromising demands - such as a complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear programs - in this first session, leading Iran to walk away from talks. •That didn't happen. Instead, the U.S. goal for this first session seems to have been to shift from the indirect format Iran wanted to a direct exchange. The U.S. achieved that goal: U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly met directly for 45 minutes at the end of a day of indirect talks. •Israeli officials remain concerned that the U.S. is being too soft on Iran. SAUDI ARABIA •The Trump administration also revived talks with Iran's regional arch-rival, Saudi Arabia, over the weekend. The U.S. and Saudi are considering a deal that would give Saudi access to U.S. nuclear technology - and could let Saudi enrich its own uranium in the future. •U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the details of an agreement are still hazy but "but it certainly looks like there is a pathway" forward. CHINA •China made another move in its escalating trade spat with the U.S.: Beijing suspended exports of certain rare earths to the U.S. in retaliation for higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. •The NYT assessed that the White House hopes to stop the escalation with direct talks: "The U.S. administration has been waiting for the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, to call Trump, but Beijing appears wary of putting Xi in an unpredictable situation with the U.S. president." •Xi, meanwhile, is on a charm offensive through Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia) this week. His trip was planned long before Pres. Trump surprised those countries with high reciprocal tariffs (which were later paused), but it has taken on new significance after Trump's tariff announcements. Analysts believe Xi will now use his Asian meetings to counter-position China as a stable trade partner - in juxtaposition to the unreliable one keeping global markets on edge. •Separately, the UK took control of its last operating steel production factory from its Chinese owners, who lost interest in the loss-making blast furnaces but still control British Steel's more profitable milling segment. •The episode tainted the UK's trust in Chinese investment: UK business secretary Jonathan Reynolds accused the British Steel's Chinese owners of not negotiating "in good faith," and said future Chinese investment offers would need to clear a "high trust bar" after this. [More cynical voices accuse British Steel's Chinese owners of deliberately ruining its business at the behest and benefit of the Chinese government.] UKRAINE •Russia fired missiles at the Ukrainian city of Sumy during Palm Sunday celebrations yesterday, killing at least 34. •Early reports suggest the Russian missiles fell on Sumy in two waves: an initial one followed by a second that landed as emergency responders arrived to aid victims of the first wave. 1/2
Open source reportRussia will host the 16th BRICS summit from 22–24 October. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE is new members; possible accession by as many as 15 countries will be discussed; Saudi Arabia is described as invited but not yet an official member.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 25 July Israel •Israeli PM Netanyahu went ahead with a planned visit to the U.S., despite (or perhaps because of) news that Pres. Biden has bowed out of the November election. •Some analysts guessed Bibi would capitalize on Biden's weakened authority to make his pleas for continued U.S. support directly to Congress - which is bitterly divided on the issue. •Netanyahu probably also sought to cozy up to Biden's presumptive replacement on the Democratic ticket, VP Harris, but Harris snubbed his Congressional address to hit the campaign trail and speak at a sorority event instead. However, she'll still meet with him (and Pres. Biden) privately at the White House later this week. •Netanyahu delayed the departure of an Israeli delegation for ceasefire talks in Qatar until after his trip to Washington. North Korea •North Korea launched another fleet of trash balloons over the border, and some landed in the compound housing Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol's offices for the first time. •South Korean authorities didn't find anything hazardous or contaminating in the balloons' "payload" - just obnoxious trash sent in response to the propaganda leaflets ("political trash," in Pyongyang's view) that defectors from the North have been floating over the border. Russia •French police arrested a Russian chef suspected of links to the Russian security services on unspecified charges related to a "large-scale" plan to destabilize the Olympic Games that start this week. •It's not clear specifically what this Russian chef was cooking up, but French authorities clarified that the charges weren't related to terrorism. Some media outlets suggested he may have been part of anticipated Russian attempts to create false scares with AI-generated bomb warnings at the Olympics. Afghanistan •Chinese engineers and Taliban officials commemorated a groundbreaking on the long-delayed Aynak Copper Project southwest of Kabul. The Taliban Deputy PM for Economic Affairs said he hoped the project would make up for 16+ years of delays due to war and incompetence with "speedy work" - something the Taliban is not known for. •Short on good news stories, the Taliban also re-inaugurated the 25-km road leading to Aynak that was already officially opened about a year ago. Sudan •The U.S. and Saudi Arabia invited Sudan's warring parties to peace talks in Switzerland next month, and RSF leader Hemedti issued a statement accepting the invitation. His foe, Gen. Al-Burhan, hasn't responded to the invitation yet. Strategic Minerals •Tesla reported a 45% decline in net income for the second quarter - an even worse outcome than pessimistic analysts had predicted. Tesla has been losing its dominance of the electric vehicle (EV) market to cheaper rivals; additionally, demand for EVs has dropped as subsidy programs ended. •Separately, the UK's royals made a record profit last year, thanks largely to the Crown Estate's investment in offshore wind farms. The UK gets 17% of its electricity from offshore wind.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 13 June Ukraine •G7 leaders are reportedly close to agreeing on a compromise that would lend Ukraine around $50 billion now to rebuild destroyed infrastructure - and repay the loan over time using interest from frozen Russian funds. Ukraine will need much more than $50 billion to rebuild. •As part of its fundraising efforts, Ukraine announced a new plan to auction off around 20 state-owned companies - including the landmark Hotel Ukraine in Kyiv, as well as some mining and chemical companies. The proceeds would plug some of the gaping hole in Ukraine's budget. Russia •Russia responded to new U.S. sanctions by announcing an immediate ban on trading in dollars or euros on its main bourse, the Moscow Exchange (MOEX). •The ban won't really matter because most MOEX traders have already switched from dollars or euros to Chinese yuan. As one Russian commodities trader told Reuters: "We don't care [about the ban], we have yuan. Getting dollars and euros in Russia is practically impossible." •Meanwhile, four Russian navy vessels arrived in Havana harbour, in what the BBC called "a show of force amid tensions with the West over the war in Ukraine." Cuban officials were quick to clarify that none of the boats have any weapons aboard. The U.S. is monitoring them anyway. China •After an EU investigation concluded that government subsidies give Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers an unfair competitive advantage over European manufacturers, the EU proposed a plan to level the playing field by imposing new tariffs of up to 38% on cheap Chinese EV imports. •China decried the EU's decision and urged the bloc to reverse its "wrong direction" on tariffs, but the reality is that Chinese EVs are so much cheaper than EU competitors that even a 38% tariff won't make up the difference: in 1H 2023, the average retail price of a Chinese EV was $33,000 vs. $70,700 in Europe. •[U.S. 1H 2023 EV prices were roughly in line with the EU's at $72,000, and the U.S. has since slapped a stiffer, 100% tariff on imported Chinese EVs.] Yemen •Yemen's Houthis used a "drone boat" - along with aerial drones and ballistic missiles - to attack a Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier, the Tutor. The Tutor's captain later reported that "the vessel is taking on water, and not under command of the crew" after a second impact. DRC •DRC's new government - including its first-ever female prime minister - was sworn in yesterday after months of delays due to disagreements over appointments. South Africa •South Africa's top court rejected an appeal by ex-Pres. Zuma's new MK party that sought to stop Zuma's former African National Congress (ANC) party - and his political rival, Pres. Ramaphosa - from forming a government. •According to preliminary indications, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) have already agreed to join the ANC's national unity government, bringing it over the majority it needed. •That government is expected to re-elect Pres. Ramaphosa tomorrow. Other News •The NYT reported that Saudi Arabia is on the verge of approving a plan to invest up to $2 billion in a hostile takeover of the disorganized array of global professional men's boxing promoters and sanctioning bodies. •The consultant-advised plan would see today's confused tangle of boxing organizations brought together under a single entity representing around 200 top male boxers in a model similar to that of the UFC, which has steadily stolen fightsport fans away from boxing.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 April Israel •More details are emerging about Iran's drone and missile attack against Israel over the weekend. •Iran aimed to launch over 170 armed drones, roughly 120 ballistic missiles, and around 30 cruise missiles at Israel. •An estimated half of the ballistic missiles failed on the launch pad or on their own in flight before Israel, the U.S., the UK, France, or Jordan had a chance to intercept them. According to U.S. and Israeli officials, only five of the ballistic missiles entered Israeli territory, and none of the drones or cruise missiles did. •The WSJ published a great account of how the U.S. meticulously organized the multinational coalition that successfully defended the attack in its first live battle test. •Saudi Arabia subtly acknowledged - via an official government post citing an unnamed "source" within the royal family - that it contributed intelligence to the international effort to intercept Iran's barrage, and justified its involvement in the interest of regional stability. [Saudi also blames Iran for inciting Hamas's Oct. 7 attack that set back Saudi-Israel rapprochement, so it likely welcomed the chance to build trust with Israel by spoiling its archrival's plans.] •Israel vowed a response to Iran "at the time that we choose," and Western countries are urging restraint - as they did on Iran when Iran was weighing its options. •Separately, Hamas shared a ceasefire counterproposal with Israel via mediators. In this version, Hamas offered to release about 20 hostages - and only after Israel pauses military operations in Gaza for six weeks, lets northern Gazans return home, and frees Palestinian prisoners - including those serving life sentences for more serious crimes. The counterproposal isn't getting much press; it's not clear if Israel will give it serious consideration. Ukraine •Some Ukrainians were apparently feeling abandoned watching the U.S., UK, and France directly intervene in Israel's defense while only supporting their war against Russia at arm's length. •In contrast to the roughly 320 projectiles Iran launched at Israel, Russia launched aroud 130 Shahed drones, 80 missiles, and 700 guided bombs at Ukraine in the last week alone - per Pres. Zelensky, who coolly observed: "the world has everything necessary to stop any missiles, Shahed drones, and other forms of terror." Sudan •Donors at yesterday's Paris conference committed €2 billion ($2.1 billion) in aid for Sudan's wartime humanitarian crisis. That's almost twice the fundraising goal, but the UN says Sudan and its neighbors who are hosting Sudanese refugees need more than twice the amount raised. •The UN didn't offer detail on the proposed allocation for the €2 billion raised, but said it would help "respond to the most urgent needs." Sahel •Russia isn't the only power swooping in to replace Western influence in junta-led Niger: China's state-owned CNPC signed a $400 million memorandum of understanding with the junta to sell crude oil from Agadem oilfield via an export pipeline to Cotonou, Benin that a CNPC subsidiary is building. •The junta's Minister of Economy and Finance launded the lucrative arrangement: "China is a great friend to Niger; we can never say it enough."
Open source report