Iran weighs Hormuz restrictions as Russia-NATO risks and Yemen tensions rise

Off Leash update 7 August 2026

IRAN •Iran's National Security Commission is reportedly considering a bill - first proposed in March and since adapted - that would bar vessels linked to the U.S. or Israel from transiting the Strait of Hormuz until the U.S. and Israel pay Iran compensation for wartime damage. •Since there are no plans to pay Iran restitution, essentially every U.S. and Israeli transit would be considered a violation of the proposed rule, punishable by a fine of 20% of the value of the cargo aboard. For good measure, non-banned vessels would also have to pay Iran "navigation service fees" - in rials - for safe passage. •Iran may have been emboldened to demand more by a new leaked report that the U.S. has consumed 80% of its THAAD missiles - in addition to half to two-thirds of its Patriot interceptors, as previously reported. Pres. Trump repeated his insistence that the U.S. has "massive amounts" of munitions but conceded that supplies of some key components have become "tighter."

RUSSIA •New U.S. intelligence reports conclude that Russia could try to test NATO's commitment to mutual defense by mounting a small-scale attack - cyber, sabotage, or a limited ground incursion - on a member of the alliance within the next few years. •That was previously inconceivable: for years, analysts were confident that Pres. Putin wouldn't dare attack a NATO member while he's still at war with Ukraine because he wouldn't want to risk drawing NATO into the war. His calculus may have now changed. •To that end, Lithuania's Defense Minister warned of intelligence suggesting that Russia may use Ukrainian drones in a "false flag" strike on one of the Baltic states to provoke a response and sow chaos.

CEUTA •Ceuta's Mayor-President, Juan Jesús Vivas, criticized the Spanish national government's response to the influx of migrants that swarmed his exclave over the weekend as too little, too late. (On the other hand, the EU commended Madrid's response.) •Vivas claims thousands of migrants are still in Ceuta, but he noted that figure is uncomfortably uncertain: "The fact that we don't have numbers on how many are still in Ceuta shows how few resources we have to deal with this situation."

YEMEN •There are rising whispers that Saudi Arabia may be planning a major seaborne military offensive against Yemen's Houthi rebels to break the Houthis' blockade on Saudi oil shipments and put an end to Houthi attacks on Saudi targets. The possible Saudi operation could include a ground offensive in central Yemen, too. •The Houthis aren't only targeting Saudi; they also attacked Yemeni military camps in Marib and Hadramout yesterday, killing 30 Yemeni soldiers. •The NYT writes that the Houthi attacks on government forces aren't necessarily connected to the Saudi conflict. Rather, Houthi leaders may spy an opportunity to consolidate their control over northern Yemen by wresting Marib province from a government that's struggling to administer it. Their interest in oil-rich Hadramout is likely motivated by a desire to cut off one of the government's most reliable remaining sources of funding.

COLOMBIA •The Financial Times reported that members (and former members) of Colombian cartels, paramilitaries, and other armed groups are volunteering to fight for Ukraine in an effort to train in the latest drone warfare tactics so they can later deploy them against Colombia's government forces, who lack such training. •Neither Ukraine nor Colombia is pleased about the trend. Ukraine says it's expelling any volunteers with known criminal pasts to avoid training a possible future adversary.

VENEZUELA •A new AtlasIntel / Bloomberg survey gave Venezuela's opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, her highest-yet level of popular support, with a 72% positive image rating. •Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, by contrast, polled at a 71% negative rating, with 65% of respondents explicitly disapproving of how she leads the executive branch and 58% rating her administration as "bad or very bad." •The poll also asked respondents how they would vote in a hypothetical presidential election: 57% said they'd support Machado, which is more than triple the 18% (mostly hard-line regime supporters) who said they'd vote for Rodriguez. That's precisely why Rodriguez is in no hurry to put the contest to a real vote. •Even a hypothetical election is bigger news than the dialogue that opened yesterday between Venezuela's government and a B-team of opposition figures that intentionally excluded Machado. Delegates exchanged some nice words about seeking a "political, peaceful, democratic and constitutional solution" - whatever that means.