Security pressure spans NATO airspace, the Sahel and Middle East diplomacy

Off Leash update 15 September COMING UP THIS WEEK •Arab foreign ministers are holding an emergency summit today to discuss a united response to Israel's strike on Hamas leaders in Doha last week. Some analysts worry that the unilateral strike is leading U.S. allies in the region - including Qatar - to question what they gain from strong ties with a U.S. that either can't or won't intervene on their behalf to prevent strikes like this. •Pres. Trump will make an unprecedented second presidential visit to the UK this week, starting tomorrow. •Wednesday is the extended deadline for Bytedance to sell TikTok to a non-Chinese owner - but that deadline has already been delayed three times, and - given the lack of publicly-announced progress towards an acquisition deal - looks likely to be extended again. •The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates Wednesday. Pres. Trump predicted that the Fed will oblige his request for a "big cut" in rates. •The 19th annual Oktoberfest starts Saturday in Munich. •On Sunday, Guinea will vote in a referendum on its junta's new draft constitution. More on that below.

COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,690/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $115,036 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $10,068/ton •Ethereum: $4,531 •Gold: $3,637/toz •Lead: $2,018/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.95/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $62.89/barrel •Zinc: $2,957/ton

RUSSIA •Romania said Russian drones invaded its airspace, marking the second time in under a week that a NATO member has reported a Russian drone incursion. •Analysts call the use of such gradual offenses to probe an adversary's response "salami slicing:" each slice advances Russia's geopolitical goals slightly, without causing enough of a stir to provoke meaningful countermeasures.

NEPAL •Nepal's "Gen Z" protesters got their wish and saw their pick to lead the country's interim government, former chief justice Sushila Karki, sworn in as interim prime minister. •Karki said she'd been reluctant to accept the mantle of becoming Nepal's first female leader, and pledged to step down in six months after organizing fresh elections.

GUINEA •Guinea's junta will put its new draft constitution to a referendum on Sunday. •The referendum was supposed to be a gauge of popular sentiment on ending the junta's military rule, but it instead looks like a way to legitimize its power grab: the draft proposal seems to open the door to keeping junta leader Mamady Doumbouya in power. •It won't be a fair vote, either: the junta banned the country's three main political parties - including deposed Pres. Conde's Rally of the Guinean People - from participating, saying the "parties have not fulfilled the obligations required of them." Their main offense seems to be demonstrating against the junta's illegal power grab.

PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a declaration condemning both Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and Israel's subsequent war in Gaza, and supporting "tangible, timebound, and irreversible steps" towards a two-state solution to the long-running conflict. •The U.S. and Israel boycotted the resolution and criticized it as a "publicity stunt."

SAHEL •Niger and Chad reported two apparently isolated recent jihadist attacks on their soldiers. •In the first, Islamic State (IS)-linked militants ambushed Nigerien soldiers after laying traps for them in Tillabéri, killing at least 14 and up to 27. Those coordinated incidents apparently took place last Wednesday - which was the same day Human Rights Watch issued a report warning of an escalation in IS attacks in the volatile region. •Then, Chad said "Boko Haram elements" killed 40 of its soldiers in an attack on their base in the Lac region bordering Nigeria early today. The attackers absconded with heavy weapons, which they'll likely use in future attacks.