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12 direct mentions across 12 briefings, with 12 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Qatar reported positive progress in indirect U.S.-Iran talks, although substantive disagreements—including nuclear restrictions—remained. Talks were paused during funeral ceremonies for Ali Khamenei.
Unverified development · updated through
Qatar reported positive progress in indirect U.S.-Iran talks, although substantive disagreements—including nuclear restrictions—remained. Talks were paused during funeral ceremonies for Ali Khamenei.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Qatar dossier
8 mapped developments across 5 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Northern Indian Ocean
The three countries will conduct exercises in the northern Indian Ocean, with Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates among the expected observers.
Approximate map position: regional centroid. This marker does not claim an exact event location.
Chronology
Off Leash update 2 July 2026 UKRAINE •The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S.-based thinktank, published a new analysis estimating casualties from Russia's nearly four-and-a-half years of war in Ukraine. •CSIS estimates that Ukraine has suffered 525,000 to 625,000 losses, including 125,000 to 150,000 deaths, while Russia has lost 1.4 million troops, including 450,000 killed in action (which CSIS notes is "more than four times greater than all U.S. fatalities in all wars combined since World War II, and more than nine times greater than all Soviet and Russian fatalities in all wars combined since World War II"). •CSIS also points out that the relative casualty rates have shifted dramatically in Ukraine's favor lately. While Russia lost two to three soldiers for every Ukrainian casualty for much of the war, this year it has suffered eight casualties for every one it inflicted on Ukraine. CSIS attributes the shift to Ukraine's intensified use of advanced drones, including some with AI-enabled targeting. IRAN •Qatar reported "positive progress" in indirect talks it mediated between the U.S. and Iran, but it sounds like all they really agreed on was to keep talking about the issues they still disagree on, like nuclear restrictions on Iran. •Talks are now on hold until after Iran concludes funeral ceremonies for former supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a U.S. airstrike on February 28. •Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf - Iran's parliament speaker and lead negotiator - called for a large turnout for Khamenei's funeral spectacle "so the world knows that the noble and honorable nation of Iran will not stay silent in the face of oppression and arrogance." He also called on the U.S. and Israel to "to avoid any miscalculations" during the processions. LIBYA •U.S. State Department officials hosted visitors from two of Libya's rival governments last week: Lt. Gen. Saddam Haftar of the eastern Libyan National Army (LNA) met with SecState Rubio, and the Deputy Defense Minister of the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) met Deputy SecState Landau (along with Pres. Trump's Special Advisor, Massad Boulos, and AFRICOM Deputy Commander Lt. Gen. Brennan). •The Atlantic Council pointed out the optics of giving the leader of an armed faction an audience with the Secretary of State but snubbing the long over stayed UN anointed representative of an "interim government." •Moreover, The Atlantic Council suggests that entertaining the LNA's claims to power "formaliz[es] the families and patronage networks that already dominate" Libyan politics and "turns managed instability into a formal settlement." TRADE •Yesterday was the deadline to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trilateral trade agreement, and - as anticipated - the U.S. opted not to lock in another 16-year term. Instead, the three neighbors will review the deal annually, giving them an opportunity to renegotiate key parts of the pact. •Pres. Trump has turned particularly critical of the deal, which he signed during his first term and once called "the fairest, most balanced, and beneficial trade agreement we have ever signed into law." He has since taken a tougher stance on trade and now hopes to squeeze more concessions from Canada and Mexico to close the U.S. trade deficit with its neighbors.
Open source reportU.S.-Iran negotiations, a pause in Israeli strikes in Lebanon, leadership change in Britain and a narrow Colombian election result.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 May 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump said he delayed a "very major attack" against Iran that was planned for Tuesday to allow ongoing "serious negotiations" to play out, after the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE asked him for more time to try to secure a deal that addresses Iran's nuclear program. •It's not clear how serious the ongoing negotiations truly are. Most media reports suggest that Iran's latest counterproposal was essentially identical to the previous one, which Trump rejected as "garbage" after reading the first page. Iranian state media, though, said the current proposal had "narrowed the gaps." •SecState Rubio expressed very cautious optimism about "slight progress" towards a ceasefire deal with Iran, but reports that Iran and Oman are in talks about creating a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz suggest otherwise. Rubio drew a red line with a warning that a tolling system "would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible." ISRAEL •A new Washington Post report found that the U.S. launched more interceptors (300) defending Israel against incoming attacks than Israel launched in its own defense (190). •The U.S. focused its efforts on intercepting high-altitude ballistic missiles coming from Iran, consuming over 200 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors - or around half its pre-war THAAD arsenal - plus around 100 Standard Missile-3 and Standard Missile-6 interceptors. •Meanwhile, Israel focused on intercepting lower-altitude incoming fire from Iranian proxies - the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon - using nearly 100 Arrow 3 missiles and around 90 David Sling interceptors. •Kelly Greico - an analyst at the Stimson Center - pointed out that interceptors used for Israel's defense reduce the arsenal available for defending against other adversaries: "That bill risks coming due in theaters that have nothing to do with Iran." EBOLA •The World Health Organization (WHO) has now documented 750 suspected cases of Ebola with 177 suspected Ebola deaths in the latest outbreak, which the WHO only confirmed last weekend and has since upgraded to a "very high" risk of spread within DRC. •Public health experts believe the new Ebola outbreak confirmed in DRC and Uganda over the weekend has been raging for weeks, and will be much harder to contain because of the delay in reporting and confirming it. •This outbreak originated in DRC's insurgency-ridden Ituri province, which has been run by a military government under a "state of siege" since 2021. Public services - including health - often take a backseat to security matters, which could explain why health officials didn't sound the alarm when they first started to see patients with possible Ebola symptoms. •Testing shortfalls also delayed Ituri's outbreak response. The region's Ebola test kits only test for the most common Ebola species, Zaire, and returned negative results. It was only when regional health officials sent tissue samples to Kinshasa - apparently weeks after the first symptoms appeared - that the Bundibugyo species of Ebola was identified. CHINA •Pres. Trump told reporters he planned to speak with Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te before deciding to sell arms to Taiwan. It would be the first time since 1979 that a sitting U.S. president or president-elect has spoken with the leader of Taiwan - though there have been official communications at less senior levels since then. •Beijing blamed Taiwan for the "petty action" of enticing Trump to break from precedent and engage at the highest level, but there's a good chance that Trump floated the idea with Xi Jinping when they met last week: Trump first mentioned he might reach out to Lai immediately upon returning from his summit with Xi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 September COMING UP THIS WEEK •Arab foreign ministers are holding an emergency summit today to discuss a united response to Israel's strike on Hamas leaders in Doha last week. Some analysts worry that the unilateral strike is leading U.S. allies in the region - including Qatar - to question what they gain from strong ties with a U.S. that either can't or won't intervene on their behalf to prevent strikes like this. •Pres. Trump will make an unprecedented second presidential visit to the UK this week, starting tomorrow. •Wednesday is the extended deadline for Bytedance to sell TikTok to a non-Chinese owner - but that deadline has already been delayed three times, and - given the lack of publicly-announced progress towards an acquisition deal - looks likely to be extended again. •The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates Wednesday. Pres. Trump predicted that the Fed will oblige his request for a "big cut" in rates. •The 19th annual Oktoberfest starts Saturday in Munich. •On Sunday, Guinea will vote in a referendum on its junta's new draft constitution. More on that below. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,690/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $115,036 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $10,068/ton •Ethereum: $4,531 •Gold: $3,637/toz •Lead: $2,018/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.95/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $62.89/barrel •Zinc: $2,957/ton RUSSIA •Romania said Russian drones invaded its airspace, marking the second time in under a week that a NATO member has reported a Russian drone incursion. •Analysts call the use of such gradual offenses to probe an adversary's response "salami slicing:" each slice advances Russia's geopolitical goals slightly, without causing enough of a stir to provoke meaningful countermeasures. NEPAL •Nepal's "Gen Z" protesters got their wish and saw their pick to lead the country's interim government, former chief justice Sushila Karki, sworn in as interim prime minister. •Karki said she'd been reluctant to accept the mantle of becoming Nepal's first female leader, and pledged to step down in six months after organizing fresh elections. GUINEA •Guinea's junta will put its new draft constitution to a referendum on Sunday. •The referendum was supposed to be a gauge of popular sentiment on ending the junta's military rule, but it instead looks like a way to legitimize its power grab: the draft proposal seems to open the door to keeping junta leader Mamady Doumbouya in power. •It won't be a fair vote, either: the junta banned the country's three main political parties - including deposed Pres. Conde's Rally of the Guinean People - from participating, saying the "parties have not fulfilled the obligations required of them." Their main offense seems to be demonstrating against the junta's illegal power grab. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a declaration condemning both Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and Israel's subsequent war in Gaza, and supporting "tangible, timebound, and irreversible steps" towards a two-state solution to the long-running conflict. •The U.S. and Israel boycotted the resolution and criticized it as a "publicity stunt." SAHEL •Niger and Chad reported two apparently isolated recent jihadist attacks on their soldiers. •In the first, Islamic State (IS)-linked militants ambushed Nigerien soldiers after laying traps for them in Tillabéri, killing at least 14 and up to 27. Those coordinated incidents apparently took place last Wednesday - which was the same day Human Rights Watch issued a report warning of an escalation in IS attacks in the volatile region. •Then, Chad said "Boko Haram elements" killed 40 of its soldiers in an attack on their base in the Lac region bordering Nigeria early today. The attackers absconded with heavy weapons, which they'll likely use in future attacks.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Sept HAMAS •An Israeli airstrike targeted Hamas's leadership-in-exile in Qatar while they were reportedly meeting to discuss a new, U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal. •Hamas said the strike missed its most senior targets but killed five lower-level members, including the son of the militia's senior negotiator, and a Qatari security officer. •The strike - thought to be Israel's first on Qatar - probably did more damage to U.S.-Israeli relations and Qatar's willingness to mediate ceasefire talks than it did to Hamas. •Pres. Trump said he was "very unhappy about every aspect of" the strike and specifically lamented Israel's unilateral action against Qatar, which Trump called "a Sovereign Nation and close Ally of the United States, that is working very hard and bravely taking risks with us to broker Peace." •Qatar's prime minister offered reassurances that his country would still continue its (thus far thankless and fruitless) role of mediating between Israel and Hamas, but seethed at Israel for violating Qatari sovereignty. He criticized Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu by name and called for "a response from the entire region to such barbaric actions." •Meanwhile, Hamas belatedly claimed responsibility for Monday's shooting that killed six in Jerusalem. •Netanyahu's office said the Jerusalem shooting was one of the factors that led Israel to target Hamas's leadership in Qatar, but it seems more likely that Israel's strike had been planned for months and was only waiting for an opportunity to target a gathered group of Hamas leaders. NEPAL •Nepal's "Gen Z" protesters were clearly not satisfied with the government's half-hearted (and mildly patronizing) concession to lift a nascent social media ban but ignore agitators' more significant calls for reform. •Nor did the demonstrators accept yesterday's resignations of the prime minister, KP Sharma Oli, and home minister as solutions. •Following the resignations, angry demonstrators set fire to the Supreme Court, the parliament building, the prime minister's residence (and residences of three former prime ministers), and the ruling Communist Party of Nepal's headquarters. •The military sent troops to restore order in Kathmandu - apparently unsuccessfully so far. The protests seem to be morphing into a broader, angrier expression of economic discontent and outrage over government corruption. FRANCE •Pres. Macron appointed his former defense minister and close ally, Sébastien Lecornu, to become his fifth prime minister. •Like his unsuccessful predecessor, François Bayrou, Lecornu is a centrist. He'll face the same resistance from both political extremes - the far left and the far right - that stalled Bayrou's budget proposal and ultimately ended his premiership. IRAN •Iran signed an agreement laying out "practical modalities" for International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts to resume inspections of Iran's nuclear sites, which were cut off in June when Israel - and then the U.S. - bombed the sites. •Iran is keen to cooperate with the IAEA to avoid a reinstatement of UN sanctions, which is a distinct possibility after France, Germany, and the UK notified the UN last week that Iran was in breach of its commitments to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal. •That notification started a 30-day clock for consultations in which both sides hope to avoid the drastic default option of a "snapback mechanism" that reimposes UN sanctions on Iran. •Iran's foreign minister noted that its agreement to resume IAEA inspections is contingent on reaching a deal to avoid reinstated sanctions, and - if sanctions are reimposed - "Iran will consider its cooperation with the agency to have come to an end." 1/2
Open source reportProspective Gaza ceasefire terms, Russia’s engagement with Afghanistan and Venezuela, Iran’s postwar diplomacy, BRICS attendance, U.S. trade meetings and market prices.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 June IRAN •Early yesterday, Iran and Israel agreed to a U.S.-proposed ceasefire that seems to be holding - despite some final fire from both sides in the first hours of the truce. •Both sides claimed victory, and - in the sense of avoiding expanded or prolonged conflict - they were indeed both winners. •Their truce was also a win for nuclear diplomacy: shortly after it took effect, Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian told his Emirati counterpart that Iran is ready to return to nuclear negotiations with the U.S. [However, Pezeshkian reiterated Iran's insistence on continuing some nuclear enrichment programs, which means the biggest impasse that stalled prior rounds of talks remains firmly in place.] •Prior to - and independent of - the Iran-Israel ceasefire, Iran symbolically retaliated against U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites by firing a few missiles at the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East, Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base. •Iran's retaliatory strikes were carefully calculated to avoid casualties or serious damage to Al Udeid, and Iran gave Qatar advance warning and apologized afterwards - all signs that Tehran seeks de-escalation. UKRAINE •Russia fired ballistic missiles at Dnipro yesterday, killing 17 and causing what Dnipro's mayor called "an unprecedented amount of destruction that the city has not seen in the entire time of [Russia’s] full-scale war." •In the wake of the Dnipro strikes, Pres. Zelensky repeated his concern that Russian ballistic missiles rely on parts imported from other countries - "unfortunately, sometimes even from Europe or NATO countries" - and called on weapons-makers to stop selling to Russia. DEFENSE SPENDING •NATO leaders agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of each country's GDP - including 3.5% of GDP on "hard" defense like weapons and an additional 1.5% on defense infrastructure - by 2025. That will please Pres. Trump, who has long been critical of NATO and has often called on its members to contribute their fair share towards the alliance's collective security.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 April 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Qatar is set to mediate DRC-M23 peace talks starting tomorrow - if neither side walks away before then. •U.S. inflation data for March will be published on Thursday. Economists expect slow price growth for March, but anticipate a sharp rise in inflation this month once new tariffs are passed through to consumers. •Golf's Masters Tournament runs Thursday through Sunday at Augusta National. •U.S.-Iran talks will resume Saturday (see below for more). •Next weekend will see presidential elections in Gabon on Saturday and Ecuador (a run-off) on Sunday. •Beijing will host the world's first half marathon featuring humanoid robot runners - in addition to real humans - on Sunday. •Sunday is also the date of the annual University Boat Race between Oxford and Cambridge. To paraphrase a commentator for the 1949 race, I don't know who will win but it's either Oxford or Cambridge. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,371/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $28,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,700/ton •Copper: $8,732/ton •Gold: $3,006/toz - slightly off record highs of ~$3,120/toz •Lead: $1,870/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.64/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.94/barrel •Zinc: $2,614/ton IRAN •In an unexpected development, Pres. Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran will engage in direct* nuclear talks starting Saturday in Oman. •*Iran confirmed that it will participate in talks with the U.S. starting Saturday, but said the first round will be conducted indirectly via mediators, with direct talks to follow if this round goes well. [Ayatollah Khamenei has ruled out direct talks with the U.S. while Trump's "maximum pressure" policy is in place. ] •Trump threatened that Iran would be "in great danger" if the talks fail. They could well fail if U.S. negotiators make heavy-handed demands that a weakened and insecure Iran would feel compelled to reject - such as ordering Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear programs. •Separately, The Washington Post reported that Iranian tried to hire a Georgian drug trafficker to assassinate Rabbi Shneor Segal, the Chief Rabbi of Baku's Ashkenazi community, in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani security services thwarted the hit in January. TRADE •Pres. Trump told reporters that his new reciprocal tariffs are simultaneously permanent and open to negotiation - "because there are things that we need beyond tariffs." •So far, only China (reciprocal tariff rate: 34%) and Canada (25%) have retaliated to U.S. reciprocal tariffs with new levies of their own. •The European Union (20%) is reportedly considering retaliating with a 25% tariff on a limited set of goods initially, but the bloc has also offered to completely remove tariffs on some products if the U.S. does the same. Ultimately, European officials suggest they hope to find a compromise to revert to lower tariffs, but they've threatened to expand the range of goods subject to tariffs if compromise proves elusive. •Most countries targeted with new reciprocal tariffs have resisted retaliating and instead plan to either offer concessions or try to negotiate. •Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu rushed back to the White House for talks on both stalled hostage negotiations and tariff relief. Netanyahu pledged to eliminate Israel's trade surplus with the U.S. by buying more U.S. goods and asked Trump to lift the tariff he imposed on Israel (17%) in return. Trump demurred, citing the $4 billion in annual aid the U.S. gives Israel - "that's a lot." •The Prime Minister of Japan (24%), Ishiba Shigeru, said he would also visit the White House soon to plea for tariff relief. •Vietnam (46%) reportedly offered to remove all tariffs on U.S. goods if the U.S. returns the favor. 1/
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi.
Open source reportCeasefire diplomacy and militant activity involving Gaza, Ukrainian strikes in Russia’s Kursk region, a China-Philippines maritime confrontation, and security claims concerning Afghanistan.
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 June India •India released results from its six-week election saga yesterday, and they revealed a shock decline in support for PM Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that exit polls had failed to predict. •The BJP still won more seats than any other party, but - for the first time since it came to power in 2014 - failed to secure the 272 seats it needed for an outright majority...far fewer than the 303 votes it won in 2019 or the "400 plus" supporters had predicted for 2024 in taunting campaign chants. •The BJP already governed within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition, but because the BJP alone had enough seats for a majority after the last election, it could force its platform through without outside suport - even from coalition parties. Now it may need to make more concessions to maintain the coalition's majority. •PM Modi declared that the results had "shown immense faith" in the BJP, but his critics say the BJP's loss in seats confirmed voters' frustrations with Modi's Hindu nationalism and failure to level India's vastly unequal playing field. •Investors sold Indian stocks, fearing that Modi's mandate for implementing pro-business reforms was weakened by softened electoral support. Mexico •While the BJP's stumble in Indian elections caused India's stockmarkets to fall ~6%, Mexican stock prices fell for a related-but-opposite reason: a landslide victory by left-wing President-elect Sheinbaum offers her a mandate to extend - or even expand - her populist predecessor's anti-business policies. •Sheinbaum has been opaque about her economic policy plans. Some pro-business voices still hope she'll break with Pres. AMLO's leftist programs. Gaza •Neither Israel nor Hamas has formally responded to the ceasefire proposal the U.S. tabled on Friday. •Hamas is reportedly uncomfortable that the proposal doesn't explicitly end the war, but the U.S. is urging it (indirectly, via Qatari mediators) to accept anyway - and to trust that an amenable post-war plan will then fall into place. •Meanwhile, Israeli PM Netanyahu is uncomfortable agreeing to a proposal that ends the war without destroying Hamas, since some of his right-wing coalition partners have threatened to sink his government if he agrees to the current terms. •Nonetheless, the U.S. is still hoping both sides will agree. CIA Director Burns and White House Middle East envoy McGurk traveled to Qatar to advance talks. •Separately, Slovenia's parliament voted to recognize Palestinian statehood without a referendum on the question [a 60% majority of Slovenians support recognizing Palestine and only 20% oppose it, so a referendum probably would've passed anyway]. Iran •Syrian state media previously reported that Israeli airstrikes hit targets in and around the Syrian city of Aleppo on Monday. Now there are semi-official reports that the Israeli strikes killed a senior Iranian IRGC commander, Saeed Abyar, and 12 militants. •The IRGC’s commander-in-chief, Hossein Salami, swore that Israel "will pay" and "should await a response." This response will probably be more muted than Iran's direct strikes on Israel in early April. Afghanistan •Abu Dhabi's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan, warmly welcomed Taliban official Sirajuddin Haqqani, who the U.S. wants to try on terrorism charges and is the subject of a $10 million U.S. arrest bounty. Despite their friendly meeting, the UAE still doesn't recognize the Taliban government - no nations have yet. Migration •Seeking to look tough on illegal immigration ahead of November elections, Pres. Biden signed an executive order that would trigger a ban on asylum applications by illegal migrants once seven-day average migrant encounters exceed 2,500. That's a low hurdle set near the current rate, so the (temporary) ban will likely be invoked very soon.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 18 April Israel and Iran •According to NYT interviews after the fact, Israel didn't expect its April 1 strike on an Iranian embassy complex in Damascus to lead to the escalation that unfolded from it, and didn't even warn the U.S. about it until moments before it happened. •That now seems like a severe miscalculation: Israel failed to recognize that Iran's decision-making - like Israel's own - is influenced by hardliners who will reliably demand retribution at least as severe as the offense it avenges. •Israel's allies are urging it in the other direction: UK Foreign Secretary (and ex-PM) David Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annelena Baerbock both visited Israel to encourage a diplomatic response to Iran's weekend strikes instead of a military one. •PM Netanyahu seemed unmoved by the overtures: both Cameron and Baerbock assessed that Israel still intends to retaliate militarily, and after the meetings Netanyahu reasserted that Israel would prioritize its own interests and "do everything necessary to defend itself." •That said, the Israeli response may be limited. Israel's Arab neighbors say Israel has signalled it will restrict its retaliation to striking additional Iran-linked facilities in Syria, and pledged its response to Iran wouldn't endanger its allies' security. •Some Iran-linked bases in Syria have already evacuated personnel in anticipation of another strike there; others are operating only during the day (Israel usually strikes at night). Gaza •Qatar said it is undergoing a "complete re-evaluation of its role" mediating between Israel and Hamas after facing "exploitation and abuse" from unnamed "politicians who are trying to conduct election campaigns by slighting the State of Qatar." •PM Netanyahu is probably one of the anonymous detractors Qatar was complaining about: he has frequently criticized Qatar's mediation, refused to consider its negotiation recommendations, and threatened to ban its state news organization, Al Jazeera. Venezuela •Quiet talks between the U.S. and Venezuela over extending Venezuela's temporary sanctions relief broke down, and the U.S. allowed a six-month oil sales license to expire at midnight this morning. •The license had been granted in exchange for a commitment from Pres. Maduro to hold free and fair elections this year, but he broke that commitment by continuing to crack down on the opposition and scuppering their chances against him in July's election. Myanmar •Myanmar's junta moved deposed opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from prison to an undisclosed location in the capital. •They cited concerns about her safety in a heat wave roasting the prison, but the rest of Naypyidaw is just as hot and they're probably not hosting her in an air-conditioned suite. •It's more likely that the junta is getting worried about the alliance of rebel groups threatening their regime and wants to make sure they hold onto their highest-value prisoner. China •Pres. Biden plans to announce a tripling in tariffs for Chinese steel imports, which are currently set at 7.5%. •Chinese steel represents only 0.6% of U.S. demand, so higher tariffs shouldn't raise U.S. consumer prices much - the increase is more of a political gambit to win voters in steel towns like the one in Pennsylvania where Biden will make his announcement. •Separately, a congressional committee accused China of complicity in the U.S. opioid crisis for offering tax rebates to manufacturers that produce fentanyl ingredients - as long as their products are sold abroad.
Open source report