Off Leash Intel · loading
4 direct mentions across 4 briefings, with 5 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The ByteDance divestment deadline is likely to be extended again.
Assessment development · updated through
The ByteDance divestment deadline is likely to be extended again.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
ByteDance dossier
4 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
United States
TikTok sued the U.S. government over legislation requiring Chinese parent ByteDance to divest the platform or face a ban.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 15 September COMING UP THIS WEEK •Arab foreign ministers are holding an emergency summit today to discuss a united response to Israel's strike on Hamas leaders in Doha last week. Some analysts worry that the unilateral strike is leading U.S. allies in the region - including Qatar - to question what they gain from strong ties with a U.S. that either can't or won't intervene on their behalf to prevent strikes like this. •Pres. Trump will make an unprecedented second presidential visit to the UK this week, starting tomorrow. •Wednesday is the extended deadline for Bytedance to sell TikTok to a non-Chinese owner - but that deadline has already been delayed three times, and - given the lack of publicly-announced progress towards an acquisition deal - looks likely to be extended again. •The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates Wednesday. Pres. Trump predicted that the Fed will oblige his request for a "big cut" in rates. •The 19th annual Oktoberfest starts Saturday in Munich. •On Sunday, Guinea will vote in a referendum on its junta's new draft constitution. More on that below. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,690/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $115,036 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $10,068/ton •Ethereum: $4,531 •Gold: $3,637/toz •Lead: $2,018/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.95/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $62.89/barrel •Zinc: $2,957/ton RUSSIA •Romania said Russian drones invaded its airspace, marking the second time in under a week that a NATO member has reported a Russian drone incursion. •Analysts call the use of such gradual offenses to probe an adversary's response "salami slicing:" each slice advances Russia's geopolitical goals slightly, without causing enough of a stir to provoke meaningful countermeasures. NEPAL •Nepal's "Gen Z" protesters got their wish and saw their pick to lead the country's interim government, former chief justice Sushila Karki, sworn in as interim prime minister. •Karki said she'd been reluctant to accept the mantle of becoming Nepal's first female leader, and pledged to step down in six months after organizing fresh elections. GUINEA •Guinea's junta will put its new draft constitution to a referendum on Sunday. •The referendum was supposed to be a gauge of popular sentiment on ending the junta's military rule, but it instead looks like a way to legitimize its power grab: the draft proposal seems to open the door to keeping junta leader Mamady Doumbouya in power. •It won't be a fair vote, either: the junta banned the country's three main political parties - including deposed Pres. Conde's Rally of the Guinean People - from participating, saying the "parties have not fulfilled the obligations required of them." Their main offense seems to be demonstrating against the junta's illegal power grab. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a declaration condemning both Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and Israel's subsequent war in Gaza, and supporting "tangible, timebound, and irreversible steps" towards a two-state solution to the long-running conflict. •The U.S. and Israel boycotted the resolution and criticized it as a "publicity stunt." SAHEL •Niger and Chad reported two apparently isolated recent jihadist attacks on their soldiers. •In the first, Islamic State (IS)-linked militants ambushed Nigerien soldiers after laying traps for them in Tillabéri, killing at least 14 and up to 27. Those coordinated incidents apparently took place last Wednesday - which was the same day Human Rights Watch issued a report warning of an escalation in IS attacks in the volatile region. •Then, Chad said "Boko Haram elements" killed 40 of its soldiers in an attack on their base in the Lac region bordering Nigeria early today. The attackers absconded with heavy weapons, which they'll likely use in future attacks.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 June COMING UP THIS WEEK •Canada's new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is hosting the 51st G7 summit today and tomorrow. •The biennial Paris Airshow opens today and runs through Thursday. Four Israeli firms - Elbit Systems, Rafael, IAI and Uvision - refused France's order to remove offensive weapons from their stands, and show organizers kicked them out. •Game 5 of the NBA Finals takes place tonight, followed by Game 6 on Thursday and Game 7 (if needed) on Sunday. The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder are tied at two games each; the first to four wins. •Thursday is a U.S. holiday for Juneteenth. •Thursday is also the latest deadline for TikTok's Chinese parent company, Bytedance, to sell the short-video app's U.S. operations to a new owner or face a shutdown, but Pres. Trump may grant Bytedance yet another extension. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,503/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,645/ton •Gold: $3,386/toz - up on geopolitical uncertainty over Iran-Israel fighting •Lead: $1,991/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.74/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $71.26/barrel - spiked over the weekend due to Iran-Israel fighting, but now down from weekend highs on reports that Iran wants a truce •Zinc: $2,623/ton IRAN •Iran and Israel continued to exchange missile strikes over the weekend and into today. Iran has reported 224 deaths from Israeli strikes, and Israel says Iran's strikes have killed 24 since Friday. •The International Atomic Energy Agency - the UN's nuclear agency - confirmed from satellite imagery that Israel's first barrage Friday destroyed Iran's above-ground nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz. Iran hides additional undisclosed enrichment operations underground where satellite photos can't see. •Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel's strikes are being "fully co-ordinated" with the U.S., but that seems to be the extent of U.S. involvement for now. Pres. Trump said the U.S. "could get involved" further in the future, but he seemed optimistic that that won't be necessary because the situation "is going to get resolved." •Russia's Pres. Putin has offered to mediate between Israel and Iran, and there are rumors that Iran is ready to end the fighting. IRAQ •Long War Journal pointed out that Iran-backed militias in Iraq have issued vague threats towards the U.S. and Israel, but haven't actually joined Iran's strikes on Israel and are directing their rhetorical ire at the U.S. instead. •One of the militias, Kataib Hezbollah, issued a statement yesterday indicating it would leave it to Iran to "bravely and steadfastly confront the Zionist aggression" [meaning Israel] while it focuses instead on "monitoring the movements of the American enemy’s military in the region." •Another Iran-backed U.S.-designated terrorist group in Iraq, Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, also focused its anger on the U.S. instead of Israel and called for U.S. forces to "be completely expelled from all Iraqi lands and airspace." •There have been at least two reports of attempted drone attacks on U.S. facilities in Iraq - one on Ain al Assad airbase in western Iraq, and another near the U.S. mission in Erbil. Neither attempt was claimed yet. U.S. TRAVEL BAN •The U.S. State Department said it identified 36 more "countries of concern" that are being considered for full or partial visa bans - in addition to the 12 full and seven partial visa bans announced earlier this month. •The 36 additional countries have 60 days to act to avoid a ban by lowering high overstay rates, resolving security issues, or addressing other U.S. grievances with their citizens' travel patterns.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 May Gaza •Israeli ground troops entered Rafah yesterday and took control of the border crossing with Egypt. •The U.S. had cautioned Israel against invading Rafah, and the White House said it withheld the shipment of 1,800 x 2,000-lb bombs and 1,700 x 500-lb bombs to Israel last week because of concerns they could be dropped on Rafah - a move the BBC called the U.S.'s "biggest warning yet for Israel." •Perhaps in response to U.S. pressure, Israel appears to have toned down its Rafah plans from the full invasion it had envisaged to "a very precise" counterterrorism operation, and that tempered approach may have helped Hamas back down from its hard threat to walk away from ceasefire talks if Israel entered Rafah: negotiators from both sides remain engaged. •Some reports suggest that the proposal Hamas accepted - which PM Netanyahu seemed dissatisfied with - agreed to release 33 hostages...but that after Hamas's "minor word changes" dead hostages would count among the 33 to be released. Ukraine •Ukraine's security services said they had foiled a Russian plot to assassinate Pres. Zelensky and other military and political figures in Kyiv, and arrested two Ukrainian colonels suspected of treasonous collaboration with Russian intelligence agents on the plan. •Kyiv's official statement alleged that the Ukrainian colonels were part of a Russian-run network assigned to identify other potential traitors with links to Zelensky's security team who could capture the president and then kill him. •Russia has considered similar operations before: Zelensky recently told Italian media that he was aware of at least 10 previous Russian attempts on his life. •Separately, Russia launched a "massive" missile and drone attack on energy infrastructure targets throughout Ukraine early this morning, which was a rather violent way to commemorate today's national holiday celebrating the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in WWII. Ukraine said it intercepted 39 of 55 Russian missiles and 20 of 21 drones. Russia •Pres. Putin was inaugurated for a fifth six-year term as Russia's head of state. •Hopefully he didn't celebrate his inauguration in the same way he honored a 2013 visit by former (and late) Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi: Berlusconi's former aide recently recounted a bizarre anecdote from that trip in which Putin shot dead a deer and cut out its heart for his hunting buddy Berlusconi, who promptly puked behind a tree. •Anyway, Russian law now requires Putin to form a new government at the start of his new term, and - while he's allowed to roll over the exact same government in place now and has shown no sign of considering a major pivot - analysts say this could be a good time to make some minor changes. •In particular, some think Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's job may be at risk after his deputy was sacked last month. China •The UK's defence secretary said his Ministry of Defence (MoD) believes a hack of its payroll system "was the suspected work of a malign actor," and media leaks strongly hinted that the MoD blamed China. China reacted to the implication, calling it a "fabricated and malicious slander." •Separately (though perhaps not entirely unrelated to news of Chinese hacking), TikTok sued the U.S. government over a proposed law that would force TikTok's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest the app or face a ban. Afghanistan •A sticky bomb targeted a Taliban convoy in restive Badakhshan province today - just a day after the army chief said he'd addressed local farmers' concerns about the poppy ban and quelled their unprecedented protests over it (by threatening to bring the military in). It appears the farmers are still upset. Strategic Minerals •Chinese cobalt reached its lowest price since April 2016 - $29,065 per ton (min. 99.8% Co min, ex-works) - because of oversupply caused by a rapid expansion in Chinese processing capacity. China processes 70-80% of the world's cobalt.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 April Iran and Israel •Israeli officials told the NYT they contemplated a broader strike on Iran in return for Iran's (mostly harmlessly intercepted) attempted strikes inside Israel, but settled for a limited strike on Isfahan because of diplomatic pressure from allies to avoid further escalation. •Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei seemed happy to let Israel have the last word with the Isfahan strike: at a meeting of senior officials, Khamenei brushed off the damage it did: "Debates by the other party about how many missiles were fired, how many of them hit the target and how many didn’t, these are of secondary importance." •Meanwhile, Iran's proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, launched drone attacks into northern Israel yesterday as Jewish families began the Passover holiday. All drones were intercepted. •Hezbollah's attempted Passover attack was probably a reprisal for an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon that killed Hussein Ali Azkul - who Israel called "a significant terrorist operative" - on Monday. Ukraine •Pres. Biden promised Pres. Zelensky that the U.S. weapons funded in the Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan support bill the Senate approved late last night will arrive "quickly." Ukraine will be eager to get them: its military is already suffering setbacks due to delays in U.S. funding. China •The Senate's foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan also included a provision obligating ByteDance - the Chinese company that owns TikTok - to sell the app to a non-Chinese owner or shut it down in the U.S. •ByteDance's shareholders - which include the Chinese government - seem averse to divesting the app, so it will likely face a ban. Russia •Russian investigators detained former deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov on suspicion of taking bribes "on a particularly large scale" in connection with construction projects he managed in Mariupol, Ukraine. •Russia doesn't usually censure senior officials for corruption [perhaps because bribery is so endemic among senior ranks that no hands are clean enough to throw the first stone] and Ivanov is a close ally of powerful defense minister Sergey Shoigu, who should have been able to shield him from scrutiny. •The fact that Shoigu didn't step in led some to speculate that Ivanov's real offense was something much more grave than graft - like treason (though the Kremlin denied it). Venezuela •Venezuela's oil minister, Pedro Tellechea, told Reuters that his ministry is exploring cryptocurrencies as a way to receive payments for oil sales once U.S. sanctions sink back in. •One cryptocurrency that Venezuela won't be accepting is the Petro (PTR): Pres. Maduro's Patria Platform gave up on that idea earlier this year after a corruption scandal. North Korea •North Korea launched more short-range ballistic missiles into the sea on Monday, and analysts are guessing it could try to launch a satellite into orbit tomorrow on the anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army. Other News •After two years of heated debate, the UK's parliament finally passed a bill that allows asylum-seekers to be deported to Rwanda. Human rights activists are united with some fiscal conservatives against the program, which would cost an estimated £1.8 million ($2.2 million) per deportee for the first 300 people expelled. Flights would start in July, but will probably be delayed or blocked by legal challenges. •Voters in Ecuador approved a referendum that gives Pres. Noboa even more authority to fight drug gangs. Noboa has already taken a hard stance against the gangs - he deployed the military against them in January - and voters apparently support it: nine of its 11 proposals look likely to pass once all votes are counted.
Open source report