Off Leash Intel · loading
3 direct mentions across 3 briefings, with 3 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The Federal Reserve would announce an interest-rate decision on Wednesday and that President Trump predicted a “big cut.”
Unverified development · updated through
The Federal Reserve would announce an interest-rate decision on Wednesday and that President Trump predicted a “big cut.”
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
U.S. Federal Reserve dossier
3 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
United States
The Federal Reserve reduced its main benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to a target range of 4.75–5.00%.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 15 September COMING UP THIS WEEK •Arab foreign ministers are holding an emergency summit today to discuss a united response to Israel's strike on Hamas leaders in Doha last week. Some analysts worry that the unilateral strike is leading U.S. allies in the region - including Qatar - to question what they gain from strong ties with a U.S. that either can't or won't intervene on their behalf to prevent strikes like this. •Pres. Trump will make an unprecedented second presidential visit to the UK this week, starting tomorrow. •Wednesday is the extended deadline for Bytedance to sell TikTok to a non-Chinese owner - but that deadline has already been delayed three times, and - given the lack of publicly-announced progress towards an acquisition deal - looks likely to be extended again. •The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates Wednesday. Pres. Trump predicted that the Fed will oblige his request for a "big cut" in rates. •The 19th annual Oktoberfest starts Saturday in Munich. •On Sunday, Guinea will vote in a referendum on its junta's new draft constitution. More on that below. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,690/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $115,036 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $10,068/ton •Ethereum: $4,531 •Gold: $3,637/toz •Lead: $2,018/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.95/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $62.89/barrel •Zinc: $2,957/ton RUSSIA •Romania said Russian drones invaded its airspace, marking the second time in under a week that a NATO member has reported a Russian drone incursion. •Analysts call the use of such gradual offenses to probe an adversary's response "salami slicing:" each slice advances Russia's geopolitical goals slightly, without causing enough of a stir to provoke meaningful countermeasures. NEPAL •Nepal's "Gen Z" protesters got their wish and saw their pick to lead the country's interim government, former chief justice Sushila Karki, sworn in as interim prime minister. •Karki said she'd been reluctant to accept the mantle of becoming Nepal's first female leader, and pledged to step down in six months after organizing fresh elections. GUINEA •Guinea's junta will put its new draft constitution to a referendum on Sunday. •The referendum was supposed to be a gauge of popular sentiment on ending the junta's military rule, but it instead looks like a way to legitimize its power grab: the draft proposal seems to open the door to keeping junta leader Mamady Doumbouya in power. •It won't be a fair vote, either: the junta banned the country's three main political parties - including deposed Pres. Conde's Rally of the Guinean People - from participating, saying the "parties have not fulfilled the obligations required of them." Their main offense seems to be demonstrating against the junta's illegal power grab. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a declaration condemning both Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and Israel's subsequent war in Gaza, and supporting "tangible, timebound, and irreversible steps" towards a two-state solution to the long-running conflict. •The U.S. and Israel boycotted the resolution and criticized it as a "publicity stunt." SAHEL •Niger and Chad reported two apparently isolated recent jihadist attacks on their soldiers. •In the first, Islamic State (IS)-linked militants ambushed Nigerien soldiers after laying traps for them in Tillabéri, killing at least 14 and up to 27. Those coordinated incidents apparently took place last Wednesday - which was the same day Human Rights Watch issued a report warning of an escalation in IS attacks in the volatile region. •Then, Chad said "Boko Haram elements" killed 40 of its soldiers in an attack on their base in the Lac region bordering Nigeria early today. The attackers absconded with heavy weapons, which they'll likely use in future attacks.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 DEC Coming Up This Week •The U.S. Federal Reserve Board meets for the last time in 2024 on Wednesday. The market expects the Fed to cut target interest rates this week but signal a slower pace of rate cuts for 2025. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,605/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,053/ton •Gold: $2,655/toz •Lead: $2,010/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.22/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $71.06/barrel •Zinc: $3,096/ton Syria •SecState Blinken confirmed that U.S. officials have been in direct contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - the rebel group leading the coalition that ousted Pres. Assad. It was the first formal confirmation that Washington is engaging the likely leaders of Syria's new government - who remain designated terrorists. •Satellite images seemed to show Russian troops packing up some equipment to leave Syria. Media reports suggest Russia is only scaling back but intends to maintain a smaller presence in Syria - concentrated at Hmeimim airbase in Latakia and Tartous naval base - going forward. •Meanwhile, Israel seems to be preparing for a prolonged presence along the border with Syria: Defense Minister Katz ordered troops to prepare to spend the winter deployed to Mount Hermon "due to what is happening in Syria." Israel hopes its troop presence can prevent hostile forces from filling the vacuum Assad's fleeing army left behind. •For similar reasons, Israel also announced plans to double its population in the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967 and has occupied since. Prime Minister Netanyahu explained that expanding the Israeli presence on the strategic plateau will help "thwart the potential threats from Syria and to prevent the takeover of terrorist elements near our border." Russia •Two Russian oil tankers ran into trouble in the Black Sea yesterday: bad weather caused one to sink and another to run aground. Environmentalists are concerned about the 4,300 tons of fuel oil that sank with the Volgoneft-212, and Russian investigators opened inquiries into possible safety violations on both ships. Israel •Ireland filed an intervention at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in support of South Africa's genocide case against Israel (which is not a member of the ICJ and doesn't recognize ICJ's jurisdiction). •Ireland's filing enraged Israel's foreign minister, who complained that "Ireland has crossed every red line in its relationship with Israel" and said Israel would close its embassy in Dublin. Ireland will retain its embassy in Tel Aviv, and bilateral diplomatic relations will continue through that channel. Sahel •Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger agreed to a longer cooling-off period before they formally withdraw from the Economic Community of African States (ECOWAS) regional bloc. •All three countries' juntas hastily announced their intention to leave ECOWAS in Jan. 2024 and were due to formally exit the group Jan. 29, 2025. However, they'll now have another six months to entertain the bloc's last-ditch pleas to change their "irreversible" decisions to leave. Other News •Cyclone Chido ravaged the Indian Ocean islands of Mayotte Friday, leaving hundreds - or possibly thousands - feared dead. Mayotte is an overseas territory of France with a per capita GDP of just $11,850, making it the poorest place in the European Union. France has sent rescuers and will probably need to fund reconstruction. •South Korea's National Assembly impeached Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol over his quasi-coup attempt. The Constitutional Court will now decide whether to reinstate the unpopular Yoon or remove him from office. •Germany's Chancellor Scholz lost a no-confidence vote in Germany's parliament today, setting the stage for early elections in Feb. 2025.
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 Sept Middle East •A day after Israel's trojan horse attack remotely detonated thousands of Hezbollah members' pagers across Lebanon, a follow-on attack remotely detonated hundreds of Hezbollah walkie-talkies. The second round of blasts killed at least 20 and injured over 450 (fewer devices exploded but they were larger devices - and thus larger explosions). •The NYT published a great article describing how Israel pulled off the operation: https://t.co/G8tTPgOKLT. •Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant issued a video statement that didn't specifically mention the Lebanon blasts (which Israel hasn't officially acknowledged - and won't acknowledge), but said the military's focus is "moving north" - i.e., towards Hezbollah. •Israel did, however, acknowledge overnight airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including a weapons depot near Khaim. •Separately, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) overwhelmingly passed a non-binding resolution calling on Israel to end its occupation of Palestinian territories within 12 months. There are no penalties if Israel ignores the order, but the opprobrium adds to Israel's isolation at UNGA. •The Economist said the UNGA vote also "undermines America's weakening clout" at the UN: the U.S. could only rally 12 other countries to join it and Israel in voting against the resolution. Ukraine and Russia •Geolocated footage showed that Russian troops captured the Donetsk town of Ukrainsk. •While Russia continues to make slow progress in Donetsk, Ukraine is trying to stall the Russian advance at its source by striking military bases and weapons depots before they can deploy to the front lines: a new Ukrainian drone attack in Toropets ignited an arms warehouse with a blast so big that Russian state media said the town of Toropets had to be evacuated. •Vox assessed that Ukraine's targeted strikes inside Russia "are likely meant to send a signal to allies that despite the war grinding on, Ukraine isn’t beaten, and that its allies aren’t backing a lost cause." Venezuela •Venezuela's president-elect - who's now in exile in Spain - said Pres. Maduro's Vice President, Delcy Rodriguez, forced him to sign a letter recognizing Maduro's fraudulent victory after "very tense hours of coercion, blackmail and pressure" before he fled the country. •VP Rodriguez's brother Jorge - who teamed up with his sister to force Gonzalez to sign the letter when they visited him at the Spanish Embassy - presented the letter during a televised press conference yesterday. •Jorge Rodriguez then tried to blackmail Gonzalez into recanting his claim that he was blackmailed into signing the letter by threatening to release an audio recording that Rodriguez says will disprove Gonzalez. •Meanwhile, Maduro's Attorney General, Tarek Saab, instructed prosecutors to issue arrest warrants for Argentina's President Javier Milei, the head of Milei's office (who happens to also be his sister), and Argentina's Security Minister. •Venezuela argues that Argentina illegally seized a Venezuelan Emtrasur Cargo Boeing 747-300FM plane in Aug. 2022 - at the request of the U.S. •Argentine-Venezuelan relations are sour - the plane seizure was just a symptom of their enmity - so Milei is highly unlikely to visit Venezuela and expose himself for arrest. •India's far north, majority-Muslim region of Jammu-Kashmir voted in regional elections for the first time in a decade yesterday. Despite a fresh wave of disruptive militant attacks, local leaders are hopeful that the vote will help the region regain some of the political autonomy it lost when the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party stripped it of its statehood in 2019. •The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its main benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 4.75-5.00%. That's a bigger cut than the quarter point the market was expecting, which suggests Fed governors are confident that inflation is under control.
Open source report