Gaza diplomacy, Hezbollah succession and North Korean troop claims

Off Leash update 29 October

Steve Bannon, political prisoner has been released from Federal Prison. Incarcerated four months for contempt of congress.

Gaza •Israel indicated openness to considering Egypt's proposal for a short ceasefire and small hostage release. Hamas hasn't responded yet, but my guess is that it would prefer to hold out for a lasting ceasefire instead of a short one. •Israel has lost 55 soldiers in Gaza this month, making this the deadliest month of the war for the Israeli military. •Israel's parliament approved a bill that would - if enforced - close down the UNRWA (the UN agency responsible for aid distribution and implementation in Gaza and the West Bank). •Israel contends that the UNRWA is too sympathetic to - and even supportive of - Hamas and its terrorism, and there seems to be a kernel of truth to that: of the 19 UNRWA officials that Israel accused of participating directly in the Oct. 7 attacks, UNRWA investigators cleared 10 but fired nine who they determined had possibly joined the attacks. •Israel's allies - including the U.S., UK, France, and Germany - oppose a ban on the UNRWA because it would shut off the only trickle of much-needed aid still flowing into Gaza [the International Organization for Migration (IOM) could step up to fill the gap, but its director said there's "no way" the IOM could replace UNRWA]. The allies are trying to talk Israel out of enforcing its new ban. Hezbollah •Hezbollah named Hassan Nasrallah's longtime deputy, Naim Qassem, as its new leader. •Qassem has seemed reluctant to assume the mantle of leadership - and the target it puts on his back. After Nasrallah's death, he quickly fled to Iran to avoid the Israeli airstrikes that were were picking off Hezbollah's succession chain in Lebanon. •Early reports suggest Qassem will stay in Iran and lead Hezbollah from there, which will make it harder for him to lead an organization already in disarray. Ukraine •The Pentagon warned that North Korean soldiers have arrived in the western Ukrainian region of Kursk and could soon join the front lines. •The U.S. now estimates 10,000 North Korean soldiers are receiving military training in Russia and will soon deploy to Ukraine. That's a significant increase on the original U.S. estimate of 3,000, but it matches South Korea's initial guess. •A Pentagon spokesman said that the U.S. could lift its restrictions on Ukraine's use of donated long-range weapons to strike Russia if North Korea joins the war on Russia's side. North Korean soldiers apparently have already joined the war, so we could soon see Ukraine carrying out longer-range strikes inside Russia. •Russia's defense ministry said it "is thinking about how to respond" if the ban is lifted and Ukraine starts firing at Moscow.