Off Leash Intel · loading
6 direct mentions across 6 briefings, with 7 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Taiwan, France, Germany and the United Kingdom criticized Chinese activity around Taiwan. It clarifies that the joint statement addressed Chinese activity generally rather than specifically mentioning the Fujian transit.
Unverified development · updated through
Taiwan, France, Germany and the United Kingdom criticized Chinese activity around Taiwan. It clarifies that the joint statement addressed Chinese activity generally rather than specifically mentioning the Fujian transit.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Germany dossier
7 mapped developments across 5 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
The Hague
Nicaragua alleges that German military and financial assistance to Israel contributed to genocide in Gaza.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 25 June 2026 VENEZUELA •Two strong "doublet" earthquakes struck Venezuela yesterday, killing at least 32 and injuring more than 700. •USGS models suggest casualties will rise far higher and could well exceed 10,000 or more. The quake struck on a public holiday when many Venezuelans were at home, and many Venezuelan homes are shoddily built and prone to collapse. Even Caracas's main airport - which was not shoddily built - sustained such extensive damage that it was forced to close. •Interim President Delcy Rodriguez declared a state of emergency and called on medical workers to care for survivors. LEBANON •Israel said its forces have trapped dozens of Hezbollah militants inside an encircled tunnel complex under the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon. The militants are staying put inside: they're likely hoping that U.S. pressure will force Israel to stand down before they run out of food and water underground. •The NYT pointed out similarities to a standoff between Israeli forces and Hamas militants in Gaza last year, in which hundreds of Hamas fighters were trapped in tunnels under Israeli-controlled terrain as a ceasefire came into effect. Israel denied the militants' request for safe passage and demanded their unconditional surrender instead. Many surrendered or were killed. •Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon held a fifth round of U.S.-mediated ambassador-level talks in Washington, DC. They reportedly discussed a U.S.-backed "pilot" in which Israel would cede some of the southern Lebanese territory it occupied during its war with Hezbollah to pre-vetted Lebanese army units to control. •The U.S. is backing the idea because it would help satisfy a condition of the U.S.-Iran MoU requiring Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. [However, the plan would let Israel keep a military presence in a border buffer zone, and Iran might consider that a violation of its conditions.] CHINA •China's newest and largest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday as a warning to the self-governing island, which had just launched a five-day exercise to practice defense against a Chinese invasion. •The provocative transit drew rebuke not only from Taiwan, but also from France, Germany, and the UK, who united to issue a rare joint statement condemning Chinese activity around Taiwan. [The statement was referring to Chinese activity around Taiwan in general and didn't specifically mention the Fujian's transit the day before.] •Separately, LineShine, a Chinese supercomputer, was anointed the world's most powerful supercomputer in the biannual TOP500 ranking, displacing HP's El Capitan. LineShine also had the greatest power consumption of the 500 supercomputers in the ranking.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 June 2026 IRAN AND ISRAEL •The U.S. and Iran exchanged another round of strikes, but - as in other recent flare-ups - both sides exercised a modicum of restraint and justified their attacks as exact retaliation for specific incidents in an effort to uphold the broader ceasefire. •First, a U.S. AH-64 Apache helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz. Both pilots were rescued, but Pres. Trump blamed Iran for downing the gunship and ordered strikes against air defense and radar sites in southern Iran in retaliation. •Then Iran re-retaliated with drone attacks on U.S. military sites in the region, including U.S. Navy assets in Bahrain and a U.S. base in Jordan. •Iran accused the U.S. of "undermining" the fragile ceasefire, but neither side seems eager to abandon the truce or diplomatic negotiations, which Trump said Monday were "two or three days" away from reaching an agreement. •So the fragile detente holds, although - as The Economist noted - "the more the ceasefire is tested, the more likely it is to collapse entirely." UKRAINE •The European Union (EU) proposed a number of new measures to penalize Russia for its war in Ukraine. One idea would bar Russian soldiers and veterans who served in Ukraine from ever entering the EU; another would maintain the low $44 per barrel cap on Russian oil through 2027. This is the EU's 21st package of sanctions on Russia since the war began. PAKISTAN •Pakistan carried out another round of cross-border airstrikes inside Afghanistan that Islamabad claimed killed at least 26 Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan militants in three Afghan provinces. Afghanistan said the strikes killed at least 13 civilians, including 11 children. •Despite flare-ups like this, the neighboring countries are still technically observing a tenuous ceasefire that China helped mediate in March. NORTH KOREA •China's Xi Jinping concluded two days of meetings with Kim Jong Un in North Korea. State media stuck to their orders and celebrated vague pleasantries without divulging any real insight into what Xi and Kim discussed. •Analysts instead honed in on what was omitted from state media reports: Xi said nothing about North Korea's nuclear program - even though Pres. Trump claimed after his meeting with Xi last month that the two had agreed to work towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. •One analyst suggested that Xi's avoidance of the nuclear topic with Kim suggests that Beijing has made "a very significant policy change to tacitly accept the reality of a nuclear North Korea" for the sake of maintaining strong bilateral relations with Pyongyang. EUROPE •Germany pulled out of the Future Combat Air System, a planned project to build a European fighter jet with France and Spain. •The project had been on life support after two French aviation majors - Dassault and Airbus - publicly disagreed over how to manage it, and Berlin's departure will probably be the long-anticipated death knell for the program, since France and Spain probably don't have the funding (or political will) to continue without Germany's support.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 October Steve Bannon, political prisoner has been released from Federal Prison. Incarcerated four months for contempt of congress. Gaza •Israel indicated openness to considering Egypt's proposal for a short ceasefire and small hostage release. Hamas hasn't responded yet, but my guess is that it would prefer to hold out for a lasting ceasefire instead of a short one. •Israel has lost 55 soldiers in Gaza this month, making this the deadliest month of the war for the Israeli military. •Israel's parliament approved a bill that would - if enforced - close down the UNRWA (the UN agency responsible for aid distribution and implementation in Gaza and the West Bank). •Israel contends that the UNRWA is too sympathetic to - and even supportive of - Hamas and its terrorism, and there seems to be a kernel of truth to that: of the 19 UNRWA officials that Israel accused of participating directly in the Oct. 7 attacks, UNRWA investigators cleared 10 but fired nine who they determined had possibly joined the attacks. •Israel's allies - including the U.S., UK, France, and Germany - oppose a ban on the UNRWA because it would shut off the only trickle of much-needed aid still flowing into Gaza [the International Organization for Migration (IOM) could step up to fill the gap, but its director said there's "no way" the IOM could replace UNRWA]. The allies are trying to talk Israel out of enforcing its new ban. Hezbollah •Hezbollah named Hassan Nasrallah's longtime deputy, Naim Qassem, as its new leader. •Qassem has seemed reluctant to assume the mantle of leadership - and the target it puts on his back. After Nasrallah's death, he quickly fled to Iran to avoid the Israeli airstrikes that were were picking off Hezbollah's succession chain in Lebanon. •Early reports suggest Qassem will stay in Iran and lead Hezbollah from there, which will make it harder for him to lead an organization already in disarray. Ukraine •The Pentagon warned that North Korean soldiers have arrived in the western Ukrainian region of Kursk and could soon join the front lines. •The U.S. now estimates 10,000 North Korean soldiers are receiving military training in Russia and will soon deploy to Ukraine. That's a significant increase on the original U.S. estimate of 3,000, but it matches South Korea's initial guess. •A Pentagon spokesman said that the U.S. could lift its restrictions on Ukraine's use of donated long-range weapons to strike Russia if North Korea joins the war on Russia's side. North Korean soldiers apparently have already joined the war, so we could soon see Ukraine carrying out longer-range strikes inside Russia. •Russia's defense ministry said it "is thinking about how to respond" if the ban is lifted and Ukraine starts firing at Moscow.
Open source reportOff Leash April 30 Gaza •Ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel may resume in Cairo shortly - if Hamas agrees to send negotiators. •Israeli officials confirmed that they've made concessions in the interest of closing a ceasefire deal: they're now open to a ceasefire in exchange for the release of 20 to 33 hostages - down from the previous demand of 40 hostages. •Hamas had trouble locating 40 hostages fitting the previous offer's criteria for release (elderly, ill, or female) but should have an easier time finding 20 to 33 hostages to free. And it's in Hamas's interest to close a deal before Israeli ground troops enter Rafah, so we may see some progress towards a deal this week. •It sounds like the biggest negotiating gap now is how long a ceasefire would last: Hamas prefers a longer one that lets it stay in power, while Israel wants a shorter-term deal so it can secure the release of hostages but eventually return to routing Hamas's leadership. •Separately, the International Court of Justice will issue a provisional ruling today in Nicaragua's flimsy case against Germany for aiding genocide in Gaza by sending weapons to Israel. A finding against Germany could make other countries think twice before sending weapons to Israel. Middle East •The EU's top diplomat said that several EU nations - including Spain, Ireland, Belgium, Slovenia, and Malta - plan to recognize Palestinian statehood within the next month. Israel criticized the idea and said it offered Palestinian leaders a "prize for terrorism." •Separately, the NYT printed an excellent piece on the delicate tightrope Arab leaders in Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Kuwait, etc. are walking between sympathizing with fellow Muslims in Gaza and suppressing public demonstrations supporting Gaza, which could churn up anger against their strict regimes. Sudan •Sudan's Rapid Support Forces are eyeing an assault on El Fasher, which is the last major city in Darfur still controlled by the government. •The fight for El Fasher would be a bloody one, with echoes of the genocide that began there around 20 years ago and killed up to 300,000 people. Iraq •A motorcycle assassin shot dead one of Iraq's most famous TikTok personalities - a woman stage-named Um Fahad - on Friday. •It's not clear who ordered Um Fahad's killing or why she was targeted, but her flamboyant posts made her conservative enemies - as well as 460,000 followers. •She was the third young Iraqi social media personality killed in the past year. Iran •The BBC published a leaked document from Iran's security forces indicating that its guards were responsible for the 2022 death of 16-year-old protester Nika Shakarami - and that they sexually assaulted her before killing her and dumping her body to be found nine days later. The government initially claimed she died by suicide. •The BBC investigated carefully (its article states: "There are numerous fake Iranian official documents in circulation, so the BBC spent months checking every detail with multiple sources"), and these new revelations seem legit. Afghanistan •A gunman attacked a Shia mosque in Herat, western Afghanistan, killing six civilians. No group has claimed the attack yet, but Islamic State is known to target Shias in the region. Other News •The Washington Post published the clearest evidence yet linking India's spy agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), to the attempted assassination of a vocal critic of PM Modi on U.S. soil in 2023, and even identified the RAW official leading the operation by name. •India rejected the report, calling its claims "unwarranted, unsubstantiated imputations."
Open source reportOff Leash Update 19 April Israel and Iran •Israel launched at least one missile - and perhaps some drones - into Iran, and Iran's air defenses were heard in Isfahan and Tabriz provinces. •Iran said its air defenses successfully downed some Israeli drones, but explosions heard near Isfahan suggested they may have missed others. •Isfahan is where one of Iran's main nuclear enrichment and missile facilities is located, but Israel had assured the U.S. before the strike that it wouldn't target nuclear facilities. Indeed, Iranian officials told the NYT the Isfahan strikes hit a military air base instead. •Israeli media say the intent was to have the last word without inflicting such a black eye that Iran's hardliners will demand re-re-retaliation. •Separately, the U.S. vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that would have brought a vote on Palestinian statehood to the full General Assembly, where it probably would've passed (around 140 countries of the 193 UN member states have already recognized Palestine to some degree). •U.S. Deputy Ambassador to the UN explained afterwards that the veto "does not reflect opposition to Palestinian statehood but instead is an acknowledgment that it will only come from direct negotiations between the parties." Russia •Germany arrested two men suspected of plotting with Russia to sabotage military facilities - including Grafenwoehr, where U.S. soldiers carry out M1 Abrams tank training with Ukrainian troops. •Separately - though perhaps linked to the same foreign intelligence handlers - Poland arrested one of its nationals for allegedly spying for Russia as part of an early plot to assassinate Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky. Polish police say the suspect "proactively established contact" with Russia. Venezuela •Though the U.S. allowed a six-month license permitting Venezuelan oil sales to expire yesterday, U.S. companies doing business in the Venezuelan oil sector will have 45 days to wind down their sales, and the exceptional license granted to Chevron (which is currently producing about 90,000 barrels per day in Venezuela) may even remain valid after that. •Pres. Maduro called the U.S. action (or rather, inaction on renewing license 44) a "grave error" and part of a "blackmail threat" [to blackmail him into holding free and fair elections?]. Other News •Kenya's military chief, Gen. Francis Ogolla, died along with nine other senior Kenyan military officials in an apparently accidental helicopter crash about 250 miles (400 km) northwest of Nairobi. Two survived, including the pilot. •Voting in the world's largest democracy - India - began today. PM Modi is sure to win reelection, but the strength of his win will be seen as a gauge of support for his policies - especially on the economy. The election runs through June 1.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 April Yesterday marked the 30-year anniversary of the start of Rwanda's 100-day genocide. President Kagame - who is running for re-election in July - commemorated the occasion with a ceremony celebrating the country's progress under his leadership since then. A total solar eclipse will cross the U.S. from Texas to Maine this afternoon. A map here shows the total eclipse path and partial eclipse gradients. Pres. Biden is hosting a trilateral summit with Japan's PM Kashido and Pres. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines Wednesday. They're expected to discuss maritime cooperation to counter China's influence in the South China Sea. South Korea votes in parliamentary elections on Wednesday. Pres. Yoon isn't up for election, but his party's performance in the vote will be a sign of his own popularity. Commodity Prices Aluminum: $2,451/ton Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $13,450/ton Cobalt: $28,550/ton Copper: $9,330/ton Gold: $2,339/toz Lead: $2,124/ton Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.79/MMbtu WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $86.31/barrel Zinc: $2,639/ton Gaza Israel said it withdrew a division of ground troops from Khan Younis and southern Gaza "to recuperate and prepare for future operations," and Palestinians returned to the rubbled city. Some analysts suggested that the "future operations" part could portend a ground invasion of Rafah, which Israel has been planning for months. Meanwhile, Israel carried out another airstrike in southern Lebanon, killing the commander of Hezbollah's Radwan Brigade, which Israel blames for firing rockets into its northern villages. Separately, the International Court of Justice began hearing Nicaragua's case against Germany over German military and financial aid for Israel. Nicaragua argues that Germany's support has "contributed to the commission of genocide" in Gaza. Finally, Egypt's Al Qahera reported cautious optimism that Israel and Hamas had agreed on basic points in their ongoing ceasefire talks in Cairo. However, Hamas corrected that report by saying talks were still stalled. Iran U.S. officials expect Iran to launch a "significant" retaliatory attack in revenge for Israel's strike that killed seven Iranian military officers in Damascus. Some suggested Iran could strike either within Israel or against U.S. or Israeli facilities (like embassies) in other countries. To me, a direct strike on Israel seems unlikely, since it would be a disproportionate and dangerous escalation that Israel would force Israel to respond similarly. It also seems unlikely that Iran would pull the U.S. into the fray with an attack on a U.S. facility. Pres. Raisi's chief of staff even wrote to Washington warning the U.S. to "step aside" and avoid involvement so it doesn't "get dragged into Netanyahu's trap." It's more likely that Iran will find a way to retaliate with a limited and targeted operation against a specific Israeli target that placates its hardliners who are demanding action but avoids angering Israel into re-retaliating. Ukraine The International Atomic Energy Agency said Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station - which has been under Russian control since Feb. 2022 - sustained damage yesterday from drone attacks that damaged its reactor and killed one person. Russia accused Ukraine of "nuclear terrorism," but Ukraine insists it wasn't involved and instead suggested Russia was responsible - though it's unclear why Russia would strike a nuclear plant it controls. Ecuador stormed the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest Jorge Glas, a former Ecuadorian vice president who took refuge in the compound in December to avoid a prison sentence for corruption. Mexico was offended by the affront and promptly cut diplomatic ties with Ecuador. NYT analysts pointed out that Ecuadorian president Daniel Noboa likely calculated that arresting Glas would boost his sagging approval ratings ahead of an election next year.
Open source report