Off Leash Intel · loading
2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 4 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
A Ukrainian commander’s account that North Korean soldiers fighting in Russia were treated as expendable and charged forward from tree lines in unconventional assaults.
Unverified development · updated through
A Ukrainian commander’s account that North Korean soldiers fighting in Russia were treated as expendable and charged forward from tree lines in unconventional assaults.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
North Korean soldiers dossier
4 mapped developments across 3 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Gaza
October the deadliest month of the war for Israel’s military, citing 55 soldiers killed in Gaza.
Approximate map position: regional centroid. This marker does not claim an exact event location.
Chronology
Off Leash update 5 Feb Israel and Gaza •Pres. Trump received Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House yesterday. •Netanyahu was the first foreign leader Trump invited to visit during his new term, and analysts suggested Trump's invitation was intended to mend bilateral ties that Trump's envoys tested by pushing Netanyahu to agree to a Gaza ceasefire deal that Netanyahu's hardline supporters opposed. •Following their meeting, Trump proposed that the U.S. take control of the Gaza Strip after permanently relocating the two million Palestinians living there to "other countries of interest with humanitarian hearts." It's not clear which other countries would accept permanently-displaced Palestinians: Egypt and Jordan have both rejected Trump's request to take them in. Syria •Pres. Al Sharaa continued his first foreign tour with a visit to Turkiye, which is home to about three million Syrian refugees. •Turkiye has offered to help train and equip Syria's new army - in part, because it wants to ensure Kurdish groups like the People's Protection Units (YPG) aren't welcome in the new force. •Al Sharaa, on the other hand, wants the new army to be more inclusive, and said he has "asked [Turkiye] to wait in order to give space for the negotiations" with the YPG and other Kurdish groups. Turkiye seems to be obliging for now, but may feel pushed to intervene if Al Sharaa prolongs negotiations. •Al Sharaa also gave his first media interview since becoming interim president to The Economist, and it was a bit testier than his recent pronouncements promising inclusivity and peace. He warned Israel of "trouble in the future" if it keeps control of the terrain it captured as the Assad regime fell in December, and called the U.S. military presence in eastern Syria "illegal." •Al Sharaa was vague about his plans for elections and democratic governance, only offering that the country was "heading in the direction of" democracy. North Korea •A Ukrainian commander told Business Insider that the North Korean soldiers his company fought against in Russia were treated like "cannon fodder" and "would just charge forward from the tree line, like in a World War II movie." •His account of the North Koreans' unconventional battle tactics was consistent with other reports of their chaotic and seemingly fearless battlefield movements. Russia has since withdrawn the (reportedly decimated) North Korean units from the front lines, and some analysts have speculated they're being retrained in modern battle tactics before they return to the front lines.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 October Steve Bannon, political prisoner has been released from Federal Prison. Incarcerated four months for contempt of congress. Gaza •Israel indicated openness to considering Egypt's proposal for a short ceasefire and small hostage release. Hamas hasn't responded yet, but my guess is that it would prefer to hold out for a lasting ceasefire instead of a short one. •Israel has lost 55 soldiers in Gaza this month, making this the deadliest month of the war for the Israeli military. •Israel's parliament approved a bill that would - if enforced - close down the UNRWA (the UN agency responsible for aid distribution and implementation in Gaza and the West Bank). •Israel contends that the UNRWA is too sympathetic to - and even supportive of - Hamas and its terrorism, and there seems to be a kernel of truth to that: of the 19 UNRWA officials that Israel accused of participating directly in the Oct. 7 attacks, UNRWA investigators cleared 10 but fired nine who they determined had possibly joined the attacks. •Israel's allies - including the U.S., UK, France, and Germany - oppose a ban on the UNRWA because it would shut off the only trickle of much-needed aid still flowing into Gaza [the International Organization for Migration (IOM) could step up to fill the gap, but its director said there's "no way" the IOM could replace UNRWA]. The allies are trying to talk Israel out of enforcing its new ban. Hezbollah •Hezbollah named Hassan Nasrallah's longtime deputy, Naim Qassem, as its new leader. •Qassem has seemed reluctant to assume the mantle of leadership - and the target it puts on his back. After Nasrallah's death, he quickly fled to Iran to avoid the Israeli airstrikes that were were picking off Hezbollah's succession chain in Lebanon. •Early reports suggest Qassem will stay in Iran and lead Hezbollah from there, which will make it harder for him to lead an organization already in disarray. Ukraine •The Pentagon warned that North Korean soldiers have arrived in the western Ukrainian region of Kursk and could soon join the front lines. •The U.S. now estimates 10,000 North Korean soldiers are receiving military training in Russia and will soon deploy to Ukraine. That's a significant increase on the original U.S. estimate of 3,000, but it matches South Korea's initial guess. •A Pentagon spokesman said that the U.S. could lift its restrictions on Ukraine's use of donated long-range weapons to strike Russia if North Korea joins the war on Russia's side. North Korean soldiers apparently have already joined the war, so we could soon see Ukraine carrying out longer-range strikes inside Russia. •Russia's defense ministry said it "is thinking about how to respond" if the ban is lifted and Ukraine starts firing at Moscow.
Open source report