Hormuz negotiations, renewed Yemen fighting and a new defense pact shape regional risks

Off Leash update 10 August 2026

COMING UP THIS WEEK •A total solar eclipse will darken the skies of Russia, Greenland, Iceland, Portugal, and Spain on Wednesday. This NASA page (https://t.co/lHBqGIu6m6) shows the eclipse path and when a full or partial eclipse will be visible by location. •Zambia will vote in presidential and assembly elections on Thursday. President Hakainde Hichilema looks likely to win re-election, but Brian Mundubile's energetic opposition campaign has gained steam in recent weeks.

COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,280/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $34,242/ton •Bitcoin: $64,976 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $14,076/ton - U.S. futures hit a record high last week as supply disruptions drove worried buyers to hoard stocks to meet persistent demand from new technologies. •Ethereum: $1,916 •Gold: $4,339/toz •Lead: $1,887/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.76/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $78.53/barrel •Zinc: $3,707/ton

GAZA •Israel formally rejected the 15-point disarmament plan that the Trump administration put forth - and Hamas agreed to - late last month. •Israel's rejection represented a rare break from Pres. Trump for Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is up for re-election in October. Netanyahu has likely calculated that his far-right support base would abandon him if he were to take Hamas's word that it will disarm and agree to withdraw Israeli forces from Gaza first.

IRAN •Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Iran is "very close" to a deal with Oman to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but other Iranian officials then complicated the matter by tying a full reopening to a list of demands the U.S. must meet first. •Tehran's demands are the same concessions it's been seeking from the U.S. throughout negotiations: it wants the U.S. to lift its blockade on Iran, withdraw its military from the region, pay war reparations, release frozen Iranian funds, and pledge to never again attack Iran or its allies / proxies. •The White House didn't immediately respond to Iran's latest list of requirements, but Pres. Trump is unlikely to concede on all of those points just to reopen the Strait. He will want to keep some leverage to achieve other objectives in future negotiations - such as securing Iran's agreement to give up its highly enriched uranium. He may, though, make temporary or partial concessions like those offered in the June MOU. •Trump told reporters yesterday that he's not in a rush to reach a deal with Iran. Rather, he said, his negotiators are "low-keying it" and "only semi-negotiating" with Iran, which he believes will need to make a deal to stop runaway inflation and end a dire cash shortage.

YEMEN •Yemen's struggling, internationally-recognized government retaliated against the Houthi rebels who reopened their long-simmering civil war with fresh attacks on government positions last week. •The Houthis control much of northern Yemen, and likely spied an opportunity to wrest more of the resource-rich south from government control while simultaneously enforcing a Red Sea blockade and mounting attacks on Saudi Arabia, which backs the government.

DEFENSE •Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye signed a trilateral mutual defense pact after spending almost a year negotiating it. •Under the pact, members commit to joining forces to retaliate together against any attack against one of them. That clause seems like a big win for Saudi, which has the weakest military and faces the most imminent security threats of the three. •Turkish officials said the alliance would be open to welcoming more members in the future. Analysts suggest Egypt would be a good fit.