Iran fighting resumes amid Hormuz closure; Red Sea blockade expands and Gaza force advances

Off Leash update 29 July 2026

IRAN •U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) accused Iran of launching "an attempted surprise attack" on a U.S. military base in Jordan that punctured a brief pause in strikes that both sides had observed this week. •The U.S. and Saudi Arabia retaliated with strikes on the Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, who Saudi and CENTCOM accuse of launching strikes on Saudi infrastructure this week. [Saudi's strikes exacerbated tensions with Iraq over Baghdad's failure to rein in Iranian proxy militias like the PMF, and Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi cancelled a planned visit to Riyadh over the spat.] •Iran also doused hopes for stability in the Strait of Hormuz when it rejected Oman's proposal for jointly managing the chokepoint by assigning Iran and Oman each oversight over a lane of traffic passing through their territorial waters. Iran countered with a lopsided proposal that would leave it firmly in control of both lanes of traffic, and said the Strait would remain closed until Oman agreed to its proposal. •Iran's Navy enforced the Strait's closure once more when it "targeted and stopped" three oil tankers it accused of taking an "unsafe and illegal route" through the Strait (read: via Omani waters) . •Despite the resumption of fighting, Pres. Trump expressed optimism that ongoing "very deep talks with Iran" could soon lead to a peace agreement - but he also threatened "very strong military action" if talks collapse again. •Separately, Iran hanged two men convicted of killing police officers during widespread anti-regime protests in January. The public executions drew a rare backlash: videos showed demonstrators calling the executioners "shameless" and booing. Rights groups say the men - like other protesters Iran has sentenced to death in recent months - weren't given due process.

YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis claimed they targeted another Saudi tanker - the NCC Ghazal - in the Red Sea. •The Ghazal was at least the fourth Saudi ship the Houthis have targeted since announcing their blockade last week. They seem to be letting Chinese tankers carrying Saudi oil through, though. Reuters reported that Beijing interceded with Houthi leaders to secure a guarantee of safe passage for its tankers, and Chinese officials reportedly maintain a line of communication with Houthi commanders to clear each vessel's passage.

UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky met Pres. Trump at the White House yesterday. Zelensky likely sought Trump's support for reviving stalled efforts to engage Russia in peace talks - perhaps starting with a partial ceasefire in long-range airstrikes.

GAZA •Israel's cabinet finally gave approval for the International Stabilization Force (ISF) to enter Gaza on Sunday. •The ISF will initially deploy up to 200 troops - lent from Kosovo, Albania, Morocco, and potentially Kazakhstan - with a mandate to start restoring basic services and aid distribution in areas that neither Israel nor Hamas control (though Israel says the ISF will operate "in full coordination" with its military). •The ISF's deployment is the principal security foundation for implementing the 20-point Gaza peace plan announced in October 2025, but Israel withheld approval for the ISF to get started because it wanted Hamas to agree to disarm first. The Israeli cabinet seemed to relax that demand earlier this month, after Morocco became the first Arab country to commit troops to the ISF.