Syria tensions, Ukraine’s war effort and assessments of damage to Iran’s nuclear sites

Off Leash update 18 July

SYRIA •Since taking power earlier this year, Syria's Pres. al Sharaa - a former jihadist - has carefully cultivated a new image as an inclusive statesman who has let go of past grievances, including against Israel. •However, Israel's airstrikes on Damascus this week have clearly tested al Sharaa's patience. In his sharpest public criticism yet, al Sharaa accused Israel of inciting "chaos" with its "wide-scale targeting of civilian and government facilities" in Damascus. •Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed to confirm reports that Israel used its airstrikes to bully al Sharaa's government into the latest ceasefire (which is still mostly holding up) when he said the truce was "achieved through strength." •Netanyahu seems resolute in his commitment to using Israel's military might to protect Syria's Druze: he vowed to block Syrian troops from deploying anywhere south of Damascus.

UKRAINE •When Presidents Trump and Zelensky spoke by phone on July 4, Trump asked Zelensky about Ukraine's capacity to strike targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg. •The White House said Trump was "was merely asking a question, not encouraging further killing," but it seems Zelensky took the question as tacit approval to fire at Russia's largest and second-largest cities: Ukraine launched over 100* drones at the two cities yesterday. [*100 came from Russian reports - which usually seek to downplay Ukrainian battle strength - so the true number of Ukrainian drones was likely far higher.] •Separately, Ukraine announced two moves to reinvigorate its war effort with arms boosts. First, its Brave1 defense tech incubator launched a program offering Ukraine's front lines as a test bed for new weapons prototypes that allied countries want to test in action. Ukrainian troops will test the new models and report back on how they perform. •Second, Pres. Zelensky set a goal for Ukraine to produce 50% of its weapons domestically within the next six months, compared to the 40% it currently self-supplies.

UK •The UK's incumbent Labour Party introduced a plan to lower the voting age to 16. Labour says the shift would bring new, youthful energy to British democracy. Naturally, it would also boost Labour's support: as in the U.S., younger voters in the UK tend to lean left.

IRAN •A new U.S. intelligence assessment cautiously determined that last month's U.S. strikes on Iran badly damaged - and perhaps destroyed - the underground nuclear enrichment site at Fordo, and likely surgically destroyed the facilities (like centrifuges) at Isfahan and Natanz that would be used to enrich any surviving 60% uranium to weapons grade - though Isfahan and Natanz suffered less overall damage than Fordo. •That assessment corroborates claims that the strikes have set Iran's nuclear weapons program back years or even decades: even if Iran was able to shield some or all of its 60% uranium from the blasts, it likely does not have any surviving centrifuges to further enrich it to weapons grade. •Separately, additional intelligence reports suggest that Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian sustained minor leg injuries while fleeing an Israeli strike sometime around day four of their 12-day war. Pezeshkian, who is still open to nuclear talks with the U.S., was careful to clarify that: "It was not the United States that was behind the attempt on my life. It was Israel."

DRC •DRC is reportedly close to finalizing a four-year football (soccer) sponsorship deal to pay FC Barcelona €10.0 to 11.5 million ($11.6 to 13.4 million) per year to place the slogan "The Heart of Africa" on its men's and women's training and warm-up jerseys, in a bid to attract tourists to DRC. •That follows similar deals DRC announced last month with AS Monaco and AC Milan. •DRC is probably hoping to emulate its regional rival Rwanda, which saw a 17% boost in tourist arrivals within a year of signing a jersey sponsorship deal with the UK's Arsenal football club.