Iran Proposal, Ukraine War Estimates and Israel-Syria Exchange Lead June 4 Update

Off Leash update 4 June 2025

IRAN •U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff proposed new terms for a nuclear deal with Iran. Under this proposal, Iran could continue to enrich uranium to levels used for nuclear power plants (around 3%) - but not to weapons grade levels - while the U.S., Iran, and other countries flesh out a more detailed long-term agreement. •The NYT said Witkoff's proposal "would amount to a bridge between the current situation, in which Iran is rapidly producing near-bomb-grade uranium, and the U.S.’s goal: no uranium enrichment at all on Iranian soil." [Instead, Iran could partner with Oman or Saudi Arabia in a closely-monitored consortium carrying out enrichment.] •Iran said it would respond in the coming days.

UKRAINE •The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a new study estimating Ukraine War casualties at almost 1.4 million killed and wounded: nearly a million Russians and about 400,000 Ukrainians. •CSIS also noted that Russia's forward progress has stagnated at just ~165 feet (50 meters) per day in some places along the front. That's slower than the grueling UK / French advance in WWI's Battle of the Somme. •Separately, Pres. Zelensky reshuffled his military leadership, relieving army chief Mykhailo Drapatyi of some of his organizational responsibilities, like training new recruits "so that he can concentrate on the front 100%." •Drapatyi faced criticism for a devastating Russian strike on a military training ground that killed 12 on June 1 and had offered to resign over it, but then he partly redeemed himself by leading the effort to stabilize the front lines in Pokrovsk, Donetsk in the ensuing days.

SYRIA •Militants fired rockets from Syria into the Golan Heights for the first time in a year yesterday. •Israel quickly blamed Syria's new government under interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa - who Israeli Defense Minister Katz said would be held "directly responsible for every threat and [rocket] fire toward the State of Israel" - and retaliated with artillery fire on the source of the rockets, as well as a series of airstrikes targeting what it said were government weapons. •Eager to avoid fresh conflict, Syria's Foreign Ministry vehemently denied involvement: "Syria has never been and will never be a threat to anyone in the region."

TRADE •U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum rose from 25% to 50% today. Pres. Trump said the doubled rate is designed to protect domestic producers from competition from cheaper foreign rivals: "At 25%, [foreign producers] can sort of get over that fence. At 50%, they can no longer get over the fence." •The White House also sent U.S. trading partners letters yesterday "to give them a friendly reminder that the deadline is coming up" (as press secretary Karoline Leavitt put it) to strike a deal avoiding new tariffs.

OTHER NEWS •As anticipated, the European Central Bank confirmed Bulgaria's accession to the euro today. Prime Minister Rossen Jeliazkov celebrated the event as "a remarkable day," but some traditionalists protested against a change that they fear will raise prices and erode national identity.