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2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 1 linked development.
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White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that President Trump was caught off guard by Israeli airstrikes in Syria and the shelling of Gaza’s Holy Family Church, prompting him to call Israel’s prime minister.
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White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that President Trump was caught off guard by Israeli airstrikes in Syria and the shelling of Gaza’s Holy Family Church, prompting him to call Israel’s prime minister.
Open source reportChronology
Off Leash update 22 July UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky announced that Ukraine and Russia will meet for peace talks in Istanbul tomorrow. •Zelensky seems more open to an immediate ceasefire than Pres. Putin does. The Kremlin is already managing expectations for the summit: a spokesman told reporters not "to expect any breakthroughs in the category of miracles - it is hardly possible in the current situation." •Separately, the NYT reported that Russia's Iranian-designed Shahed drones have become better at hitting their targets - despite parallel improvements in Ukraine's air defenses. Last year, 7% of Shahed fire breached air defenses to reach its target. This year to date, that rate has reached 11%. IRAN •Iran responded to the EU's threat to reimpose UN nuclear sanctions in the absence of a new nuclear deal by convening talks with the UK, France, and Germany starting this Friday. •If those go well, they could open the door to new nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran - although Iranian officials note that there are currently "no plans to hold talks with the United States," suggesting that Iran is still smarting from U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities last month. CHINA •Chinese Premier Li Qiang inaugurated the construction of a massive dam on Tibet's Yarlung Zangbo River that will become the world's largest green energy plant. The 1.2 trillion yuan ($167 billion) project will take 10 years or more to complete. •Unlike DRC's Grand Inga Dam - which, at ~40-70 gigawatts, would have a capacity somewhere between Three Gorges (23 gigawatts) and the new dam in Tibet (70 gigawatts) *IF* it's ever completed - investors have high confidence in the ambitious new stimulus-supported project. Chinese stock and bond prices rose after Premier Li's announcement yesterday. •Separately, Chinese authorities accused local governments and hospitals in western Gansu Province of tampering with blood tests to cover up evidence of lead poisoning affecting over 250 kindergartners. •The cover-up might have worked if the initial offense had been less egregious: school staff jazzed up kids' lunches with powdered pigments - which were clearly marked as inedible and contained 20% lead - to make the food look better in marketing photos. •The resulting symptoms of lead poisoning were so obvious that parents doubted local blood test results showing their kids were fine, and took their kids to other provinces for untampered testing that confirmed dangerously elevated blood lead levels. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's sanctioned Attorney General, Tarek Saab, opened an investigation into allegations that 252 Venezuelan migrants - purportedly gang members - who were deported from the U.S. were tortured in El Salvador's CECOT detention center before their repatriation to Venezuela as part of a trilateral prisoner swap last week. •Saab didn't mention how the nearly 1,000 political prisoners still languishing in Venezuelan jails are being treated. ISRAEL •Yesterday, foreign ministers from 25 countries - including the UK and a majority of EU member states - signed a statement declaring that Israel's "denial of essential humanitarian assistance to the civilian population [of Gaza] is unacceptable," and concluding that "the war in Gaza must end now." •Pope Leo joined in the criticism, expressing his "deep sorrow" and calling for an end to the "barbarity of war" after Israeli shelling damaged Gaza's only Catholic church, killing three and wounding nine (including a priest). •White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt acknowledged that Pres. Trump was also "caught off guard" by Israel's go-it-alone airstrikes on Syria and shelling of Gaza's Holy Family Church, and "quickly called the [Israeli] prime minister to rectify these situations." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 June 2025 IRAN •U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff proposed new terms for a nuclear deal with Iran. Under this proposal, Iran could continue to enrich uranium to levels used for nuclear power plants (around 3%) - but not to weapons grade levels - while the U.S., Iran, and other countries flesh out a more detailed long-term agreement. •The NYT said Witkoff's proposal "would amount to a bridge between the current situation, in which Iran is rapidly producing near-bomb-grade uranium, and the U.S.’s goal: no uranium enrichment at all on Iranian soil." [Instead, Iran could partner with Oman or Saudi Arabia in a closely-monitored consortium carrying out enrichment.] •Iran said it would respond in the coming days. UKRAINE •The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a new study estimating Ukraine War casualties at almost 1.4 million killed and wounded: nearly a million Russians and about 400,000 Ukrainians. •CSIS also noted that Russia's forward progress has stagnated at just ~165 feet (50 meters) per day in some places along the front. That's slower than the grueling UK / French advance in WWI's Battle of the Somme. •Separately, Pres. Zelensky reshuffled his military leadership, relieving army chief Mykhailo Drapatyi of some of his organizational responsibilities, like training new recruits "so that he can concentrate on the front 100%." •Drapatyi faced criticism for a devastating Russian strike on a military training ground that killed 12 on June 1 and had offered to resign over it, but then he partly redeemed himself by leading the effort to stabilize the front lines in Pokrovsk, Donetsk in the ensuing days. SYRIA •Militants fired rockets from Syria into the Golan Heights for the first time in a year yesterday. •Israel quickly blamed Syria's new government under interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa - who Israeli Defense Minister Katz said would be held "directly responsible for every threat and [rocket] fire toward the State of Israel" - and retaliated with artillery fire on the source of the rockets, as well as a series of airstrikes targeting what it said were government weapons. •Eager to avoid fresh conflict, Syria's Foreign Ministry vehemently denied involvement: "Syria has never been and will never be a threat to anyone in the region." TRADE •U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum rose from 25% to 50% today. Pres. Trump said the doubled rate is designed to protect domestic producers from competition from cheaper foreign rivals: "At 25%, [foreign producers] can sort of get over that fence. At 50%, they can no longer get over the fence." •The White House also sent U.S. trading partners letters yesterday "to give them a friendly reminder that the deadline is coming up" (as press secretary Karoline Leavitt put it) to strike a deal avoiding new tariffs. OTHER NEWS •As anticipated, the European Central Bank confirmed Bulgaria's accession to the euro today. Prime Minister Rossen Jeliazkov celebrated the event as "a remarkable day," but some traditionalists protested against a change that they fear will raise prices and erode national identity.
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