Ukraine ceasefire diplomacy, Gaza operations and Red Sea tensions

Off Leash update 20 March

UKRAINE •Presidents Zelensky and Trump spoke by phone yesterday, and it was much more cordial than their last conversation in the Oval Office. Zelensky agreed to Pres. Putin's watered-down ceasefire proposal pausing attacks on energy and infrastructure targets for 30 days. •Zelensky asked the U.S. to monitor key energy sites protected by the current agreement: "Just the assertion and the word of Putin that he will not strike energy sites is too little." •The White House said its negotiators will continue to meet Ukrainian teams in Saudi Arabia to seek a Black Sea truce "in the coming days," and hoped to eventually reach a full ceasefire plan that both Ukraine and Russia can agree to.

GAZA •Israel launched "targeted ground activities" in Gaza yesterday, seizing a sliver of the Netzarim Corridor to create a "partial buffer zone" between the north and south of the strip. Israel's goal seems to be to resume vehicle checks and add pressure on Hamas. •Thousands of Israelis protested in Jerusalem for a new ceasefire.

CHINA •Pres. Trump teased a possible visit by China's Pres. Xi Jinping to Washington "in the not too distant future." •Trump said he'd ordered the capital to be cleaned up ahead of Xi's yet-unplanned arrival - as he did ahead of previous visits by other foreign dignitaries like India's Prime Minister Modi, France's Pres. Macron, and the UK's Prime Minister Starmer: "I didn't want to have them see tents. I didn't want to have them see graffiti. I didn't want to have them see broken barriers and potholes in the roads." •Canada may not be inviting Xi to visit anytime soon: China-Canada relations have taken two turns for the worse. Yesterday, China executed four Canadian citizens on drug trafficking charges - despite Ottawa's pleas for leniency. Then - at midnight this morning - China imposed (previously announced) tariffs on $3.7 billion in Canadian agricultural and food exports to China in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

IRAN •Axios and The Jerusalem Post independently reported that Pres. Trump's recent letter to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei gave Iran a two-month(ish) deadline to reach a new nuclear deal, and threatened significant new sanctions if the deadline isn't met. •Neither publication cited an exact date for the deadline, and Trump's letter may have left it vague to give Khamenei time to soften his position and come around to the idea of talking to the U.S. •Khamenei hasn't officially responded yet, but other Iranian officials - including Pres. Pezeshkian - have gently hinted that they're open to talks without explicitly disagreeing with Khamenei's hardline position.

YEMEN •After Pres. Trump threatened to hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks on Red Sea ships, Iran reportedly privately asked its Houthi proxies to dial back their attacks and nudged Oman to convey the same message to Houthi leaders. •The Houthis remain outwardly defiant: Houthi foreign minister Jamal Amer vowed to resist U.S. pressure or Iranian appeals to "dial down" Red Sea attacks. But behind closed doors, the Houthis are probably listening to their benefactors (plus, ongoing U.S. strikes are chipping away at their arsenal). •My guess is that we'll see the Houthis lob some sporadic, easily-interceptible missiles in Israel's direction - like the one they fired towards Ben Gurion Airport overnight that Israel promptly destroyed - but won't see the dramatic escalation they've promised.

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