Ceasefire diplomacy, insurgent violence and political shifts span multiple regions

Off Leash update 13 March 2025

UKRAINE •Having secured Ukraine's tentative agreement to Pres. Trump's 30-day ceasefire proposal, U.S. officials landed in Moscow to pitch the plan to Russia. •Russia seems lukewarm on the proposal. A Kremlin aide called it "nothing more than a short reprieve for Ukrainian forces," and complained that a 30-day truce merely gives Ukraine a break from fighting. •Russia favors a more permanent truce that solidifies its territorial gains, and has reportedly responded to the U.S. proposal with a list of demands that must be met before it agrees to a ceasefire. •Meanwhile Russia retook Sudzha, and has now nearly recaptured all of the Kursk region from Ukrainian forces who captured parts of it in recent months. Pres. Putin visited troops in Sudzha to show that the city - which was the largest Kursk settlement Ukraine captured - is now firmly back under Russian control.

SYRIA •Interim Pres. Sharaa appointed a seven-man committee to investigate reports that his new government's forces are stoking sectarian violence and carrying out human rights abuses - including summary executions - against civilians in Alawite strongholds in western Syria. The committee will report its findings back to Sharaa within 30 days. •The Syrian Network for Human Rights, an NGO, estimates that at least 779 people have died in sectarian skirmishes in recent weeks, with government forces and pro-Assad militias each responsible for about half of those deaths.

GAZA •A new UN report accused Israel of carrying out "genocidal acts" against Gazans by restricting medical supplies for maternity wards. Prime Minister Netanyahu immediately rejected the report's findings, calling them biased and anti-Semitic.

PAKISTAN •Pakistan's military said it concluded its operation to rescue the estimated 400 hostages that the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) captured after hijacking a train near Quetta on Tuesday. •The military freed around 300 of the hostages, but the BLA claimed that it executed 50 of the others to punish the Pakistani government for refusing to agree to a prisoner swap. •The episode was another sign that Karachi is struggling to contain the BLA's separatist militancy.

CHINA •Taiwan's Pres. Lai accused China of escalating its "influence campaigns and manipulation" on the island in an effort to "absorb" it, and said that his government charged 64 people - mostly current of former Chinese military officials - with spying for China in 2024. •In response to Beijing's "infiltration," Lai vowed to introduce counter measures like more rigorous scrutiny of Chinese citizens' applications for Taiwanese residency.

DRC •The Southern African Development Community (SADC) said it will conduct a "phased withdrawal" of its regional troops from eastern DRC, where at least 15 of them have died in recent fighting. •Having failed to keep the peace in eastern DRC, the SADC is now urging a "diplomatic and political solution" to the conflict. •Angola will mediate peace talks between DRC and the M23 next week.

GREENLAND •Greenland's centre-right Demokraatit Party unexpectedly won the largest share of yesterday's vote, with around 30% support. •The Demokraatit Party favors gradual independence from Denmark, and will try to form a government that takes the territory in that direction. In addition, party leader Jens-Frederik Nielsen has vocally opposed Pres. Trump's suggestion that the U.S. could acquire Greenland, and will likely rebuff Trump's future overtures towards the island.

VENEZUELA •U.S. envoy Richard Grenell announced on X that deportation flights to Venezuela will resume tomorrow. Pres. Maduro's government briefly blocked the flights to retaliate for the U.S. suspension of Chevron's operating license in Venezuela, but apparently has now reversed course under U.S. pressure. 1/2