10 direct mentions across 10 briefings, with 17 linked developments.
17Linked events
10Source reports
2024-04-09First seen
2026-05-01Last seen
Evidence mix17 developments
Erik’s assessment3Unverified14
Direct mentions
10
Countries
Gaza, Iran, Israel, Israel / Gaza, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Turkey, United States, Yemen
Categories
Active conflict, Maritime security, Political instability, Strategic competition, U.S. strategic interests
Latest linked intelligence
Israel declined to unload the Panama-flagged Panormitis after Ukrainian lobbying. Kyiv alleges the cargo originated in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, and the vessel is seeking another buyer.
Unverified development · updated through
Latest directly linked development
IsraelUnverified
Israel refuses to unload vessel carrying disputed grain
Israel declined to unload the Panama-flagged Panormitis after Ukrainian lobbying. Kyiv alleges the cargo originated in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, and the vessel is seeking another buyer.
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Government of Israel dossier
Government of Israel linked geography
12 mapped developments across 6 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Source archive
0:00Approximate scope
Turkey
Turkey restricts 54 categories of exports to Israel
Turkey imposed restrictions on exports of 54 military-related items to Israel, citing opposition to the Gaza war, a dispute over Turkish aid airdrops, and domestic protests.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Mention timeline
Instability and conflict-related developments across five countries
Off Leash update 1 May
MALI
•Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) called on "all sincere patriots, without exception" to join its efforts to overthrow Mali's military government under Col. Assimi Goita.
•JNIM and its allies have imposed a blockade of Bamako, and residents of the capital are already feeling the squeeze. Food prices rose 45% in the past few days as militant checkpoints restricted 70% of commercial transit routes into the city.
•Goita's government will struggle to weather the storm, and the odds of a fresh coup are high and rising.
UKRAINE
•After much Ukrainian lobbying, Israel refused to unload a vessel carrying grain that Kyiv claims Russia stole from occupied Ukrainian territories.
•The Panama-flagged Panormitis is reportedly now seeking another buyer for its cargo, but Ukraine will make that difficult.
•Kyiv is on a mission to target Russia's "shadow grain fleet," which it claims has exported 850,000 tons of stolen Ukrainian grain on 50 different voyages between January and April.
DRC
•The U.S. Treasury slapped sanctions on former Congolese President Joseph Kabila for his alleged support of the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels stoking conflict in eastern DRC.
•Pres. Tshisekedi's government in Kinshasa - which sentenced Kabila to death in absentia in a military trial last year - welcomed the move.
•Kabila hasn't publically commented yet, but will probably accuse Washington of helping Tshisekedi carry out a vendetta against a political rival.
• He should return all the DRC resources he stole while President and he wouldn't have to worry so much about the justice that will visit him.
MYANMAR
•Myanmar's military government said it had moved Aung San Suu Kyi - the civilian leader it ousted in 2021 - from prison to house arrest in a performative gesture of amnesty aimed at bolstering the repressive junta's global legitimacy.
•The junta said it had also generously shortened her sentence by 4.5 years, meaning the now-80 year old will be freed when she's 99 instead of 102 (assuming she lives that long and they don't slap new charges on her).
•Emerging reports suggest Aung San Suu Kyi has actually been under house arrest for around 18 months already, but the junta waited until China's foreign minister intervened to announce the move and claim credit for its "benevolence."
•It has been less benevolent towards the other 22,000 political prisoners that rights groups think it holds.
VENEZUELA
•Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, announced a public sector minimum wage hike of 26% to $240 per month and a pension raise to $70 per month, which she said was still "not enough."
•It's not clear how her government will pay the higher rates. It has struggled to pay the previous, much-lower rates in recent months, and the shortfall is what triggered the protests that forced her to promise higher wages and pensions.
Government refusing to unload the Panormitis1 direct event link
Off Leash update 8 April
IRAN
•Just 90 minutes before Pres. Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or see its "whole civilization" destroyed, Trump announced that Iran had agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Iranian officials and Pakistani mediators soon confirmed the truce.
•Iran pledged to reopen the Strait and both sides agreed to join talks towards a more lasting peace, which will start in Islamabad on Friday.
•Axios reported that Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, personally backed and blessed the deal. That suggests Khamenei - who holds his cards close but is thought to be a hardliner - has a pragmatic side too.
•Investors believe the temporary truce will hold and markets rallied on the news of a deal. Shipping companies seem cautiously optimistic but want more confirmation that their ships won't be attacked before sending them through the Strait.
LEBANON
•Israel said the temporary truce between the U.S. and Iran does not include Lebanon, and the Israel Defense Forces continued to strike Hezbollah targets there.
•Pakistan's prime minister said the U.S.-Iran agreement does include Lebanon. Lebanon's economy minister complained of "mixed signals."
IRAQ
•Kataib Hezbollah freed American journalist Shelly Kittleson yesterday - one week after kidnapping her in Baghdad.
•The group apparently abducted Kittleson in order to use her as a bargaining chip to win the release of some of its members from Iraqi jails, and it worked: several imprisoned Kataib Hezbollah members were freed yesterday, too.
AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN
•Afghanistan and Pakistan have been quietly engaging in peace talks in the western Chinese city of Urumqi this week.
•Kabul called the talks "useful," but it sounds like both sides merely repeated the same tired accusations and demands they've been making for decades.
•The only thing that China's Foreign Ministry could claim that this summit achieved was a vague alignment on "media coverage" (and the fact that it offered no further details on what that means shows how little alignment there really was).
NORTH KOREA
•North Korean state media published photos of Kim Jong Un's daughter and presumed successor, Kim Ju-ae, driving a tank during a military exercise.
•Pyongyang's propaganda is always carefully crafted to send a specific message. These images of Ju-ae in military motifs are likely intended to convey that - despite being female in a deeply patriarchal society - she has the legitimacy to succeed her male ancestors. [They also show that North Korea has a low driving age: Ju-ae is thought to be just 13.]
SPACE
•NASA's Artemis II mission beamed some spectacular images from its lunar flyby back to Earth yesterday. You can see them here: https://t.co/6IqxEqVCCH.
Party asserting that the truce does not cover Lebanon2 direct event links
Iran escalation, Houthi activity and DRC political tensions lead Off Leash update
Off Leash update 30March
COMING UP THIS WEEK
•Wednesday is April Fools' Day and - perhaps relatedly - Edible Book Day.
•It's also the 50th anniversary of Steve Jobs and Stephen Wozniak founding Apple Computers.
•This is Holy Week for western Christians. Friday is Good Friday (U.S. and EU markets are closed), followed by Easter on Sunday. EU markets are also closed for Easter Monday next week.
•OPEC+ producers - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman - meet Sunday to set output targets for May.
COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES
•Aluminum: $3,296/ton
•Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton
•Bitcoin: $67,471
•Cobalt: $56,290/ton
•Copper: $12,195/ton
•Ethereum: $2,065
•Gold: $4,542/toz
•Lead: $1,897/ton
•Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.94/MMbtu
•WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $100.92/barrel
•Zinc: $3,115/ton
IRAN
•Pres. Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, said he was "hopeful" that negotiations will start this week, and Pakistan said it's preparing to host peace talks.
•But while Trump hints at ongoing contact with Iran's "much more reasonable" new leaders, he's simultaneously fueling rumors that he'll abandon talks and "take the oil in Iran" - perhaps by seizing its Kharg Island fuel hub.
•Having twice been bombed between rounds of ongoing negotiations, Iran is wary. Its parliament speaker accused the U.S. of "secretly planning a ground invasion" and warned that U.S. troops on the ground inside Iran will be "set on fire."
•Israel struck two Iranian nuclear facilities that Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, insists were civilian infrastructure. Araghchi threatened to "exact a heavy price" in retaliation, and Iran later struck a chemical plant in southern Israel.
•The war is unpopular in the U.S., where an Economist / YouGov poll found only 36% of respondents approve of how Trump is pursuing it.
YEMEN
•Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels joined their benefactor's war by resuming missile launches towards Israel for the first time since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran a month ago.
•Israel easily intercepted the incoming Houthi missile, and analysts seem unconcerned that the Houthi's entry into the war will shift its course. That's partly because the Houthis' firepower comes from Iran, and Iran can't afford to divert part of its depleting arsenal just so the Houthis can fire at the same enemy from a different angle.
•The Houthis also seem to be refraining from targeting Red Sea shipping, as they did from 2023 until a ceasefire in May 2025. One Chatham House analyst surmised that they hope that Saudi Arabia will reward their restraint with cash. But others suggest the rebels are growing frustrated that Saudi aid hasn't materialized and may abandon their restraint.
DRC
•Ex-Congolese President Joseph Kabila gave his first major interview in eight years to the NYT.
•In the extensive conversation, he hinted that he helped rig the 2018 election to fulfil a power-sharing "agreement" he had struck with his successor, Felix Tshisekedi, with whom he has since spectacularly fallen out.
•Kabila now accuses Tshisekedi of trying to assassinate him in a drone strike on Goma earlier this month and slammed "Tshisekedi’s tyranny," warning of the "Sudanization" of DRC - i.e., of political dispute that descends into open conflict.
•For its part, Tshisekedi's government accuses Kabila of leading the Rwanda-backed M23 rebellion in the east and has convicted him of treason and sentenced him to death in a trial that Human Rights Watch called "blatantly unfair."
•Kabila is now back in DRC, in M23-controlled Goma. When the NYT asked him if he wanted to rule DRC again, he ominously demurred.
Belligerent accused of striking Iranian nuclear facilities2 direct event links
Gaza war planning, Bolsonaro house arrest and fighting in western Sudan
Off Leash update 6 August
GAZA
•Israel is considering a plan to expand the war in Gaza and occupy the entire Gaza Strip - including the 25% it doesn't currently control. The cabinet will vote on the proposal tomorrow.
•Prime Minister Netanyahu's far-right supporters love the idea, and - with ceasefire negotiations stalled and his fragile coalition at risk of fracture - Netanyahu seems to be warming to it, too.
•However, some senior military figures - reportedly including Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir - have voiced dissent over fears that a full occupation would endanger the remaining ~20 living hostages and bog the IDF down for years. They prefer a more gradual approach: perhaps encircling Gaza City and other population centers first, and then selectively launching operations from there.
BRAZIL
•On Monday, Brazilian Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered former president - and Moraes's nemesis - Jair Bolsonaro into house arrest for violating a social media ban imposed during his ongoing trial on charges of plotting a coup, which Bolsonaro denies.
•Other Brazilian officials - including Moraes's fellow Supreme Court justices - were apparently surprised by the order and worry that it will complicate ongoing trade talks with the U.S., given Pres. Trump's support for Bolsonaro and vocal opposition against the charges against the former president.
SUDAN
•Sudan's civil war has slowly shifted west since the Sudanese Army retook control of Khartoum in March. The army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are now battling over Kordofan, which lies between Darfur (largely under RSF control) and central Sudan (largely under army control).
•Human rights groups say civilians in Kordofan are suffering the consequences of being at the crossroads of the war, and civilians in El Fasher - the only part of Darfur the army controls - are starving en masse under the RSF's siege of the city.
•Neither side is gaining much traction, and the conflict looks likely to grind on.
considering an expansion of the Gaza war and full occupation of the territory1 direct event link
Gaza negotiations remain stalled as pressure rises over captives
Off Leash update 4 August
COMING UP THIS WEEK
•August 6 and 9 are the 80th anniversaries of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
•New U.S. tariffs go into effect August 7 - unless frantic bilateral negotiations result in a deal before then.
COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES
•Aluminum: $2,566/ton
•Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton
•Bitcoin: $114,649
•Cobalt: $33,335/ton
•Copper: $9,631/ton
•Ethereum: $3,560
•Gold: $3,359/toz
•Lead: $1,972/ton
•Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.06/MMbtu
•WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $66.63/barrel
•Zinc: $2,727/ton
GAZA
•Hamas posted videos showing two Israeli captives looking extremely emaciated, causing new concern for their well-being and adding to calls for a ceasefire and hostage release deal amidst similarly disturbing reports of rising starvation in Gaza.
•Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed "profound shock" over the hostage videos, and proposed that the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) deliver food and medicine to the hostages. Hamas said it was open to the idea - but only under the unlikely condition that Israeli attacks "of all forms must cease during the receipt of packages for the prisoners.”
•Despite the reinvigorated sense of urgency for a ceasefire, substantive negotiations remain stuck at an impasse. Frustrated U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff suggested shifting to an "all or nothing" ultimatum in which Israel would demand the release of all remaining hostages and Hamas's full disarmament in exchange for an end to the war.
•Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu can't end the war without jeopardizing the far-right support his fragile coalition depends on, and his critics believe - probably correctly - that he'll prioritize his own political survival over signing a ceasefire deal that could bring down his government.
•That's likely why the latest ultimatum attaches a condition that Hamas has already categorically rejected: its full disarmament. Instead, Hamas unconstructively declared that it will not disarm until the creation of an "independent, fully sovereign Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital."
UKRAINE
•With their independence newly restored, Ukraine's two anti-corruption agencies, NABU and SAPO, announced that they had disrupted a major bribery scheme in which crooked officials - including a lawmaker, local officials, and National Guardsmen - agreed to pay inflated prices for drones and other military kit in exchange for kickbacks of up to 30% of the contracts' value.
SYRIA
•Syrian state-run television reported that armed groups violated a shaky truce in predominantly Druze Sweida to attack government security forces there.
•We may see more violations in the coming days: Sweida's Druze are growing agitated over what they call a government "blockade" cutting off their flow of supplies via a humanitarian corridor to Jordan. They want the government forces to fully withdraw from the region.
SOUTH AFRICA
•South African scientists injected five rhinos' horns with a radioactive material called Rhisotope - which they say is harmless to the rhinos but easily detectable by airport scanners - as part of a new anti-poaching campaign. Conservationists estimate that poachers have killed an average of more than one rhino per day in South Africa since 2021.
(Editor note: those rhinos die to supply Chinese bachelor parties with what Chinese herbalists think is a natural version of Viagra. Instead of just using Viagra.)
Belligerent and negotiating party in the Gaza conflict1 direct event link
Ukraine talks, Iran diplomacy and mounting pressure over Gaza
Off Leash update 22 July
UKRAINE
•Pres. Zelensky announced that Ukraine and Russia will meet for peace talks in Istanbul tomorrow.
•Zelensky seems more open to an immediate ceasefire than Pres. Putin does. The Kremlin is already managing expectations for the summit: a spokesman told reporters not "to expect any breakthroughs in the category of miracles - it is hardly possible in the current situation."
•Separately, the NYT reported that Russia's Iranian-designed Shahed drones have become better at hitting their targets - despite parallel improvements in Ukraine's air defenses. Last year, 7% of Shahed fire breached air defenses to reach its target. This year to date, that rate has reached 11%.
IRAN
•Iran responded to the EU's threat to reimpose UN nuclear sanctions in the absence of a new nuclear deal by convening talks with the UK, France, and Germany starting this Friday.
•If those go well, they could open the door to new nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran - although Iranian officials note that there are currently "no plans to hold talks with the United States," suggesting that Iran is still smarting from U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities last month.
CHINA
•Chinese Premier Li Qiang inaugurated the construction of a massive dam on Tibet's Yarlung Zangbo River that will become the world's largest green energy plant. The 1.2 trillion yuan ($167 billion) project will take 10 years or more to complete.
•Unlike DRC's Grand Inga Dam - which, at ~40-70 gigawatts, would have a capacity somewhere between Three Gorges (23 gigawatts) and the new dam in Tibet (70 gigawatts) *IF* it's ever completed - investors have high confidence in the ambitious new stimulus-supported project. Chinese stock and bond prices rose after Premier Li's announcement yesterday.
•Separately, Chinese authorities accused local governments and hospitals in western Gansu Province of tampering with blood tests to cover up evidence of lead poisoning affecting over 250 kindergartners.
•The cover-up might have worked if the initial offense had been less egregious: school staff jazzed up kids' lunches with powdered pigments - which were clearly marked as inedible and contained 20% lead - to make the food look better in marketing photos.
•The resulting symptoms of lead poisoning were so obvious that parents doubted local blood test results showing their kids were fine, and took their kids to other provinces for untampered testing that confirmed dangerously elevated blood lead levels.
VENEZUELA
•Venezuela's sanctioned Attorney General, Tarek Saab, opened an investigation into allegations that 252 Venezuelan migrants - purportedly gang members - who were deported from the U.S. were tortured in El Salvador's CECOT detention center before their repatriation to Venezuela as part of a trilateral prisoner swap last week.
•Saab didn't mention how the nearly 1,000 political prisoners still languishing in Venezuelan jails are being treated.
ISRAEL
•Yesterday, foreign ministers from 25 countries - including the UK and a majority of EU member states - signed a statement declaring that Israel's "denial of essential humanitarian assistance to the civilian population [of Gaza] is unacceptable," and concluding that "the war in Gaza must end now."
•Pope Leo joined in the criticism, expressing his "deep sorrow" and calling for an end to the "barbarity of war" after Israeli shelling damaged Gaza's only Catholic church, killing three and wounding nine (including a priest).
•White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt acknowledged that Pres. Trump was also "caught off guard" by Israel's go-it-alone airstrikes on Syria and shelling of Gaza's Holy Family Church, and "quickly called the [Israeli] prime minister to rectify these situations."
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Belligerent criticized over operations and humanitarian conditions in Gaza and strikes in Syria2 direct event links
Ceasefire Dispute in Gaza; Political and Security Developments in North Korea, Essequibo and DRC
Conflicting Gaza ceasefire proposals, fallout from North Korea’s failed warship launch, Venezuela’s disputed Essequibo election, allegations against M23, Joseph Kabila’s reported return to Goma and Volkswagen’s Dieselgate convictions.
Party to Gaza ceasefire and hostage negotiations0 direct event links
Ceasefire diplomacy, insurgent violence and political shifts span multiple regions
Off Leash update 13 March 2025
UKRAINE
•Having secured Ukraine's tentative agreement to Pres. Trump's 30-day ceasefire proposal, U.S. officials landed in Moscow to pitch the plan to Russia.
•Russia seems lukewarm on the proposal. A Kremlin aide called it "nothing more than a short reprieve for Ukrainian forces," and complained that a 30-day truce merely gives Ukraine a break from fighting.
•Russia favors a more permanent truce that solidifies its territorial gains, and has reportedly responded to the U.S. proposal with a list of demands that must be met before it agrees to a ceasefire.
•Meanwhile Russia retook Sudzha, and has now nearly recaptured all of the Kursk region from Ukrainian forces who captured parts of it in recent months. Pres. Putin visited troops in Sudzha to show that the city - which was the largest Kursk settlement Ukraine captured - is now firmly back under Russian control.
SYRIA
•Interim Pres. Sharaa appointed a seven-man committee to investigate reports that his new government's forces are stoking sectarian violence and carrying out human rights abuses - including summary executions - against civilians in Alawite strongholds in western Syria. The committee will report its findings back to Sharaa within 30 days.
•The Syrian Network for Human Rights, an NGO, estimates that at least 779 people have died in sectarian skirmishes in recent weeks, with government forces and pro-Assad militias each responsible for about half of those deaths.
GAZA
•A new UN report accused Israel of carrying out "genocidal acts" against Gazans by restricting medical supplies for maternity wards. Prime Minister Netanyahu immediately rejected the report's findings, calling them biased and anti-Semitic.
PAKISTAN
•Pakistan's military said it concluded its operation to rescue the estimated 400 hostages that the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) captured after hijacking a train near Quetta on Tuesday.
•The military freed around 300 of the hostages, but the BLA claimed that it executed 50 of the others to punish the Pakistani government for refusing to agree to a prisoner swap.
•The episode was another sign that Karachi is struggling to contain the BLA's separatist militancy.
CHINA
•Taiwan's Pres. Lai accused China of escalating its "influence campaigns and manipulation" on the island in an effort to "absorb" it, and said that his government charged 64 people - mostly current of former Chinese military officials - with spying for China in 2024.
•In response to Beijing's "infiltration," Lai vowed to introduce counter measures like more rigorous scrutiny of Chinese citizens' applications for Taiwanese residency.
DRC
•The Southern African Development Community (SADC) said it will conduct a "phased withdrawal" of its regional troops from eastern DRC, where at least 15 of them have died in recent fighting.
•Having failed to keep the peace in eastern DRC, the SADC is now urging a "diplomatic and political solution" to the conflict.
•Angola will mediate peace talks between DRC and the M23 next week.
GREENLAND
•Greenland's centre-right Demokraatit Party unexpectedly won the largest share of yesterday's vote, with around 30% support.
•The Demokraatit Party favors gradual independence from Denmark, and will try to form a government that takes the territory in that direction. In addition, party leader Jens-Frederik Nielsen has vocally opposed Pres. Trump's suggestion that the U.S. could acquire Greenland, and will likely rebuff Trump's future overtures towards the island.
VENEZUELA
•U.S. envoy Richard Grenell announced on X that deportation flights to Venezuela will resume tomorrow. Pres. Maduro's government briefly blocked the flights to retaliate for the U.S. suspension of Chevron's operating license in Venezuela, but apparently has now reversed course under U.S. pressure.
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Subject of allegations in the cited UN report1 direct event link
Rafah operation, Ukraine strikes and assassination plot lead 8 May update
Off Leash update 8 May
Gaza
•Israeli ground troops entered Rafah yesterday and took control of the border crossing with Egypt.
•The U.S. had cautioned Israel against invading Rafah, and the White House said it withheld the shipment of 1,800 x 2,000-lb bombs and 1,700 x 500-lb bombs to Israel last week because of concerns they could be dropped on Rafah - a move the BBC called the U.S.'s "biggest warning yet for Israel."
•Perhaps in response to U.S. pressure, Israel appears to have toned down its Rafah plans from the full invasion it had envisaged to "a very precise" counterterrorism operation, and that tempered approach may have helped Hamas back down from its hard threat to walk away from ceasefire talks if Israel entered Rafah: negotiators from both sides remain engaged.
•Some reports suggest that the proposal Hamas accepted - which PM Netanyahu seemed dissatisfied with - agreed to release 33 hostages...but that after Hamas's "minor word changes" dead hostages would count among the 33 to be released.
Ukraine
•Ukraine's security services said they had foiled a Russian plot to assassinate Pres. Zelensky and other military and political figures in Kyiv, and arrested two Ukrainian colonels suspected of treasonous collaboration with Russian intelligence agents on the plan.
•Kyiv's official statement alleged that the Ukrainian colonels were part of a Russian-run network assigned to identify other potential traitors with links to Zelensky's security team who could capture the president and then kill him.
•Russia has considered similar operations before: Zelensky recently told Italian media that he was aware of at least 10 previous Russian attempts on his life.
•Separately, Russia launched a "massive" missile and drone attack on energy infrastructure targets throughout Ukraine early this morning, which was a rather violent way to commemorate today's national holiday celebrating the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in WWII. Ukraine said it intercepted 39 of 55 Russian missiles and 20 of 21 drones.
Russia
•Pres. Putin was inaugurated for a fifth six-year term as Russia's head of state.
•Hopefully he didn't celebrate his inauguration in the same way he honored a 2013 visit by former (and late) Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi: Berlusconi's former aide recently recounted a bizarre anecdote from that trip in which Putin shot dead a deer and cut out its heart for his hunting buddy Berlusconi, who promptly puked behind a tree.
•Anyway, Russian law now requires Putin to form a new government at the start of his new term, and - while he's allowed to roll over the exact same government in place now and has shown no sign of considering a major pivot - analysts say this could be a good time to make some minor changes.
•In particular, some think Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's job may be at risk after his deputy was sacked last month.
China
•The UK's defence secretary said his Ministry of Defence (MoD) believes a hack of its payroll system "was the suspected work of a malign actor," and media leaks strongly hinted that the MoD blamed China. China reacted to the implication, calling it a "fabricated and malicious slander."
•Separately (though perhaps not entirely unrelated to news of Chinese hacking), TikTok sued the U.S. government over a proposed law that would force TikTok's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest the app or face a ban.
Afghanistan
•A sticky bomb targeted a Taliban convoy in restive Badakhshan province today - just a day after the army chief said he'd addressed local farmers' concerns about the poppy ban and quelled their unprecedented protests over it (by threatening to bring the military in). It appears the farmers are still upset.
Strategic Minerals
•Chinese cobalt reached its lowest price since April 2016 - $29,065 per ton (min. 99.8% Co min, ex-works) - because of oversupply caused by a rapid expansion in Chinese processing capacity. China processes 70-80% of the world's cobalt.
Party to the Gaza conflict and ceasefire negotiations.2 direct event links
Gaza Escalation Risks Lead April 9 Security Update
Off Leash Update 4/9
Gaza
Turkey lodged a form of protest over Israel's war in Gaza by enacting new restrictions on exports of 54 military items to Israel. The move was partly a response to Israel's opposition to Turkish aid airdrops in Gaza, but also an acknowledgement of rising public anger over the war, which was in full view when thousands of Turks turned out to demonstrate against Israel over the weekend.
The leaders of France, Egypt, and Jordan also put Israel on notice: they warned of "dangerous consequences" if Israel proceeds with its planned ground invasion of Rafah.
Israel seems to be moving forward with the Rafah invasion anyway: today PM Netanyahu announced that a date had been set for the operation (though he didn't share that date with the media).
Hamas still hasn't officially responded to Israel's latest ceasefire proposal, but its leaders said the plan failed to meet any of their demands. They plan to deliver a formal response to mediators in the coming days.
Separately, Israel issued a warning to Iran, which is weighing its options for retaliating against last week's Israeli strike that killed seven of its military officials in Damascus last week. Israel warned that it would strike nuclear facilities in Iran if Iran attacks targets within Israel. Some analysts are guessing that Iran will instead focus on Israeli-linked targets (like embassies) in a third country.
Russia
Six northern European countries - Belgium, Britain, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway - signed an agreement to work together to protect underwater infrastructure (e.g. telecom and power cables and gas pipes) from sabotage by "hostile actors." Russia is the main threat they're concerned about - and the main suspect in last year's attacks on the Nord Stream pipeline.
Libya
According to new reports, PM Dbeibah's government has hired the U.S. security contracting firm Amentum to train his 444th, 111th, and 166th Brigades, with a goal of bringing divergent factions together and hardening Libya's borders. The U.S. State Department apparently condones the program: it's coordinating with Amentum.
Afghanistan
The Taliban's acting telecoms minister confirmed to ToloNews that his government plans to ban access to Facebook from Afghanistan. Human rights groups condemned the news.
Other News
March's global temperatures broke seasonal heat records for the tenth month in a row: the El Niño weather cycle is exacerbating a long-term upward trend in temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions.
Party to the Gaza war and reported issuer of a warning to Iran5 direct event links