Off Leash Intel · loading
3 direct mentions across 3 briefings, with 5 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Ukraine launched another wave of long-range drone attacks, including against the Primorsk oil terminal more than 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine.
Unverified development · updated through
Ukraine launched another wave of long-range drone attacks, including against the Primorsk oil terminal more than 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Government of Russia dossier
5 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Moscow
Ukraine tentatively accepted a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire and that U.S. officials traveled to Moscow to present it. A Kremlin aide characterized the plan as a short reprieve for Ukrainian forces, while Russia was said to have submitted demands that would need to be met before it agreed.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update May 4th COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is Star Wars Day: May the 4th be with you. In other news related to fabulous costumes, tonight is also the Met Gala. •Friday is Victory in Europe (VE) Day, marking the 81st anniversary of the formal end of WWII in Europe. •Russia celebrates Victory Day on Saturday, May 9. That traditionally involves a big parade showing off the latest military kit alongside marching military academy cadets, but the Kremlin said the hardware display would be toned down this year because of the "operational situation" in Ukraine. •Saturday is also the start of the Venice Biennale art festival. The organizers controversially re-welcomed Russia's participation in this year's event, despite its ongoing war in Ukraine that saw it banned from the 2024 Biennale. •The U.S. celebrates Mother's Day on Sunday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,522/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,485/ton •Bitcoin: $79,708 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,997/ton •Ethereum: $2,360 •Gold: $4,583/toz •Lead: $1,949/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.84/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $103.01/barrel •Zinc: $3,345/ton IRAN •Iran sent the U.S. a new, 14-point proposal for ending the war. Pres. Trump said he would "soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable." However, Trump added that the ongoing back and forth "could lead to something very positive for all." •Separately, Trump announced a new initiative - dubbed Project Freedom - in which U.S. ships will guide vessels that are cut off by Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz through the Strait to open seas, starting today. The Economist noted that the plan is "essentially a challenge to Iran: a bet that it would not want to take the risk of firing the first shots — or laying mines — in a challenge to the United States." •The U.S. Treasury also threatened vessels that pay tolls to Iran for safe passage through the Strait with sanctions violations. The U.S. has historically focused its limited sanctions-enforcement resources on punishing the entities closest to sanctions targets - as opposed to distant "counterparties" like shipping companies being extorted by sanctions targets - but that could change as Treasury seeks to exert "maximum pressure" on Iran. UKRAINE •Ukraine launched another wave of drone attacks deep inside Russia, targeting its Primorsk oil terminal port (which is over 620 miles or 1,000 km from Ukraine) and other energy infrastructure. •That doesn't mean the temporary ceasefire that Presidents Trump and Putin proposed after their meeting last week is off the table. Ukraine hasn't publicly accepted or rejected the offer yet, and could be firing some parting shots to improve its position ahead of possible negotiations during the detente. GERMANY •German Chancellor Friedrich Merz started a tiff with Pres. Trump when he said the U.S. is being "humiliated" in Iran. •Trump hit back by threatening to raise tariffs on European Union auto imports to the U.S. from 15% to 25% - a move that would disproportionately affect Germany, given its automaking strength - and to pull 5,000 U.S. troops out of Germany. •The U.S. has over 36,000 active-duty troops in Germany - more than in any other country outside of the U.S. except Japan - so withdrawing 5,000 of them isn't as drastic as it sounds. It merely brings U.S. force strength in Europe back to where it was before the Ukraine war. CUBA •Citing Cuba's alleged ties to Iran and Hezbollah, the U.S. slapped broad new sanctions on Cuban entities and officials involved in the "energy, defense and related materiel, metals and mining, financial services, or security sector of the Cuban economy, or any other sector of the Cuban economy." •Hours after the new sanctions were announced on Friday, Pres. Trump told an audience in Florida that the U.S. will be "taking over" Cuba "on the way back from Iran," claiming that Cuba's government will see the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier "stop about 100 yards offshore, and they'll say, 'Thank you very much. We give up'." •Cuba - which has long relied on any help it can get, including from unsavory partners - called the new sanctions and thinly-veiled threats "illegal" and "coercive." In a way, they are probably intended to coerce Havana into ending its decades-long practice of offering a "permissive environment" for governments hostile to the U.S. to run intelligence and military operations from a base only 90 miles (145 km) from Florida. •Separately, a new report from the left-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) assessed that U.S. sanctions on Cuba - which were imposed by Trump in his first term but continued through Pres. Biden's term - were "likely the primary cause" of a 148% increase in infant mortality from 2018 to 2025.
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 March 2025 UKRAINE •Having secured Ukraine's tentative agreement to Pres. Trump's 30-day ceasefire proposal, U.S. officials landed in Moscow to pitch the plan to Russia. •Russia seems lukewarm on the proposal. A Kremlin aide called it "nothing more than a short reprieve for Ukrainian forces," and complained that a 30-day truce merely gives Ukraine a break from fighting. •Russia favors a more permanent truce that solidifies its territorial gains, and has reportedly responded to the U.S. proposal with a list of demands that must be met before it agrees to a ceasefire. •Meanwhile Russia retook Sudzha, and has now nearly recaptured all of the Kursk region from Ukrainian forces who captured parts of it in recent months. Pres. Putin visited troops in Sudzha to show that the city - which was the largest Kursk settlement Ukraine captured - is now firmly back under Russian control. SYRIA •Interim Pres. Sharaa appointed a seven-man committee to investigate reports that his new government's forces are stoking sectarian violence and carrying out human rights abuses - including summary executions - against civilians in Alawite strongholds in western Syria. The committee will report its findings back to Sharaa within 30 days. •The Syrian Network for Human Rights, an NGO, estimates that at least 779 people have died in sectarian skirmishes in recent weeks, with government forces and pro-Assad militias each responsible for about half of those deaths. GAZA •A new UN report accused Israel of carrying out "genocidal acts" against Gazans by restricting medical supplies for maternity wards. Prime Minister Netanyahu immediately rejected the report's findings, calling them biased and anti-Semitic. PAKISTAN •Pakistan's military said it concluded its operation to rescue the estimated 400 hostages that the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) captured after hijacking a train near Quetta on Tuesday. •The military freed around 300 of the hostages, but the BLA claimed that it executed 50 of the others to punish the Pakistani government for refusing to agree to a prisoner swap. •The episode was another sign that Karachi is struggling to contain the BLA's separatist militancy. CHINA •Taiwan's Pres. Lai accused China of escalating its "influence campaigns and manipulation" on the island in an effort to "absorb" it, and said that his government charged 64 people - mostly current of former Chinese military officials - with spying for China in 2024. •In response to Beijing's "infiltration," Lai vowed to introduce counter measures like more rigorous scrutiny of Chinese citizens' applications for Taiwanese residency. DRC •The Southern African Development Community (SADC) said it will conduct a "phased withdrawal" of its regional troops from eastern DRC, where at least 15 of them have died in recent fighting. •Having failed to keep the peace in eastern DRC, the SADC is now urging a "diplomatic and political solution" to the conflict. •Angola will mediate peace talks between DRC and the M23 next week. GREENLAND •Greenland's centre-right Demokraatit Party unexpectedly won the largest share of yesterday's vote, with around 30% support. •The Demokraatit Party favors gradual independence from Denmark, and will try to form a government that takes the territory in that direction. In addition, party leader Jens-Frederik Nielsen has vocally opposed Pres. Trump's suggestion that the U.S. could acquire Greenland, and will likely rebuff Trump's future overtures towards the island. VENEZUELA •U.S. envoy Richard Grenell announced on X that deportation flights to Venezuela will resume tomorrow. Pres. Maduro's government briefly blocked the flights to retaliate for the U.S. suspension of Chevron's operating license in Venezuela, but apparently has now reversed course under U.S. pressure. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 July Russia •A Russian court issued an arrest warrant for murdered dissident Alexey Navalny's widow, Yulia Navalnaya, for "participating in an extremist community." •Navalnaya left Russia in 2021, and has continued to champion her late husband's opposition ("extremist") causes from abroad. She's also editing a manuscript about his political career that he wrote in prison, which will be published and released in the U.S. in October. She was already unlikely to return to Russia; with this warrant outstanding, she definitely won't. •Separately, the U.S. FBI shut down a Russian "bot farm" that used artificial intelligence to post pro-Putin disinformation in the U.S. and elsewhere. The shuttered entity created two websites and almost 1,000 X (fka Twitter) accounts with all-American pseudonyms like "Sue Williamson" purporting to be normal apple pie-eating folks who think Putin is just swell. Gaza •An Israeli strike on a school building in southern Gaza reportedly killed at least 25 people. Israel said it was targeting a militant who had participated in the Oct. 7 attacks - and who was apparently sheltering behind displaced Gazans in the school building. •The UN estimates that over 80% of Gaza's schools have been severely damaged or destroyed in the war - often because militants like this one seek refuge in them. •Finally, Al-Monitor reported that PM Netanyahu's four "non-negotiable" demands for a ceasefire deal are causing problems for Egyptian mediators, who are trying to find common ground that Hamas and Israel can agree on. Netanyahu's demands are new and far removed from the slim common ground Hamas can reasonably accede to. Iran •Analysts agree that President-elect Pezeshkian won't be able to effect real policy changes in Iran's rigid theocracy, but the NYT hopes he'll at least be able to "shift the tone" and "tilt Iran away from the hard-line policies such as the mandatory hijab, which led to widespread discontent, an uprising and harsh crackdowns by the authorities." •While campaigning, Pezeshkian also indicated he's willing to negotiate with the U.S. to alleviate sanctions: "Why should we be fighting with the whole world?" [Of course, he'll only be allowed to negotiate within the narrow bounds Ayatollah Khamenei and the clerics set for him.] •Separately, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines reported that Iran has been provoking and funding U.S.-based anti-Israel protests over Gaza to stoke political opposition to the war. In many cases, Iran-linked agents pose as online activists to agitate distrust in U.S. policy. China •Japanese observers spotted China's Shandong Carrier Group operating in the Philippine Sea for the first time this year (it deployed there three times last year). Its deployments always make Japan uneasy, and Japanese jets scrambled in response to this one, too. Electric Vehicles •Tesla's U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market share fell below 50% for the first time in the second quarter. Overall EV sales were up 11% year-over-year. Ford and GM also had strong quarterly sales.
Open source report