Gaza diplomacy, Ukraine strike claims and Russian Taliban outreach

Off Leash update 11 June

Gaza •The UN Security Council (UNSC) passed a U.S.-backed resolution supporting the latest Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, with Russia abstaining instead of blocking the vote with a veto. The UNSC's support is symbolically important because it conveys broad international backing for a deal, but ultimately only Israel and Hamas can sign off on this deal. •To that end, SecState Blinken is on his eighth trip since Oct. 7 to the Middle East with a straightforward message for the foreign leaders he'll meeting with: "If you want a ceasefire, press Hamas to say, yes." •Blinken is portraying Hamas's assent as the only remaining obstacle to a ceasefire deal, but Israel hasn't agreed to the current terms yet, either. •It's true that the current terms were originally conceived by Israel before Pres. Biden leaked them to the media (on a Friday night after Israel's ultra-orthodox - who oppose offering Hamas any concessions - had powered off their phones for the sabbath), but PM Netanyahu will have a hard time selling the deal to his most conservative supporters, who have threatened to abandon his fragile coalition if he fails to destroy Hamas. •Meanwhile, NBC News reported that the U.S. is considering a separate bilateral deal with Hamas to release five American hostages. It's not clear what the U.S. would offer Hamas in return. Ukraine •Ukraine claimed it successfully destroyed one of Russia's ~14 remaining Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jets in a drone strike on the Akhtubinsk airfield inside Russia. Initial reports suggest Ukraine used its own drones in the strike - not advanced Western weapons it recently got permission to use inside Russia. •Separately, an investigation by BBC Russia and Mediazona found that over 19,500 Wagner mercenaries died in the "Bakhmut meat grinder" between Jan. 2022 and Aug. 2023. That's consistent with the "over 20,000" men that Wagner's late founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said he lost in the grueling battle for the town. •The new report said over 17,000 of the men Wagner lost in Bakhmut were former prisoners that Pres. Putin pardoned in exchange for their commitment to fight. Yemen •Yemen's Houthi rebels said they interrupted an "American-Israeli spy cell" after arresting around 12 UN personnel and staff of a U.S.-funded pro-democracy group, the National Democratic Institute. U.S., Israeli, and UN officials declined to comment. Afghanistan •Russia's foreign ministry said it's considering removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations in order to facilitate dialogue on "issues such as drug trafficking, terrorism, and organized crime." •Delisting could be the first step towards recognizing the Taliban government. [Russia - which lost global allies after invading Ukraine and is eager for international friends - would be the first country to officially recognize the Taliban government.] Other News •A plane carrying Malawi's vice president, a former first lady, and eight others went missing in bad weather. Pres. Chakwera said authorities are searching through thick brush with "every fiber of hope that we will find survivors."