Off Leash Intel · loading
13 direct mentions across 13 briefings, with 15 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The Taliban’s denial may be face-saving and that leaders may have restored service after recognizing the country’s dependence on internet access for trade, travel, and communications.
Assessment development · updated through
The Taliban’s denial may be face-saving and that leaders may have restored service after recognizing the country’s dependence on internet access for trade, travel, and communications.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Taliban dossier
12 mapped developments across 4 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Afghanistan
Taliban leader Hibatullah Akundzada delivered a rare Eid address and ruled out compromising on Islamic law. A ban on public stoning for adultery had recently been repealed, while noting that no stonings had occurred since the repeal.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 2 October RUSSIA •The Kremlin warned European leaders against approving a proposal to essentially advance Ukraine €140 billion ($156 billion) in future reparations funding backed by frozen Russian assets. •The EU plan would package that funding as an interest-free loan to avoid the complexities of seizing Russian assets outright, but the Kremlin now says it would consider such crafty financial engineering the same thing as a seizure anyway, and would retaliate by seizing an equivalent value of frozen European assets in Russia. •Separately, French authorities seized a Russian "shadow fleet" oil tanker off France's western coast and detained two of its crew over the tanker's suspected ties to recent drone flights over European countries. That lends credence to Ukrainian President Zelensky's assertion that the trespassing drones are being launched from Russia's "shadow fleet." •Indeed, the seized tanker, the Borocay, was sailing near the Danish coast last week when unidentified drones - likely launched from it - menaced Denmark's skies and forced its main airport to temporarily close. DRC •Some Congo watchers - especially those aligned with former president Joseph Kabila - expressed concern that the death sentence a military court handed Kabila on Tuesday will derail the bumbling and half-hearted peace process that DRC and the M23 / Rwanda entered into over the summer. •Kabila's sympathizers are probably correct that his conviction and sentence were politically motivated, and the conviction is certainly not going to encourage Kabila to help end the conflict in the east. But the death sentence is unlikely to ever be carried out, and the peace process is already so broken that a vindictive verdict against Kabila is unlikely to do much further damage. AFGHANISTAN •Internet service returned to Afghanistan after a two-day outage that media reports tied to a Taliban edict against "immorality." •A Taliban spokesman now says the government didn't intentionally cut off internet this time - unlike from 1996 to 2001 during their last turn in power, when they did ban internet use. •That may be a way to save face after Taliban leaders realized how much Afghanistan's economy and people now depend on the internet for basic and Taliban-tolerated (for men, at least) functions like trade, travel, and communications. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 July WEST BANK •Senior Christian Palestinian leaders blamed Israeli authorities for allowing and encouraging radical settlers responsible for recent violent attacks against Muslims and Christians in the West Bank, including fires that damaged a Christian church and cemetery in Taybeh last week. •The priests said Israeli police ignored their emergency calls during the attacks, and have done nothing to address "an intensifying trend of systemic and targeted attacks" against local Christians. •Instead, Israeli authorities continue to approve new Jewish settlements. At least 22 new settlements - including some that were completely new and others that already existed as outposts - were built without authorization in recent months, and subsequently legalized by government approval under what the BBC called "the largest expansion in decades." Most experts consider new settlements illegal under international law. CHINA •Chipmaker Nvidia - which recently became the first company to reach a $4 trillion market cap - said the U.S. government had reversed course and approved sales of its H20 artificial intelligence (AI) chips to Chinese companies following Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's meeting with Pres. Trump last week. •Huang probably communicated the steps Nvidia has taken to prevent China from acquiring its most advanced chips, as well as Nvidia's significant investment in the substantially-restricted H20, which was developed specifically to comply with congressional concerns about selling more advanced chips than the H20 to China. •Some China hawks will still worry about Chinese tech companies buying the weaker H20, which is still a great chip for AI - even if it's not the best Nvidia makes. •Meanwhile, China steered in the opposite direction and announced new restrictions on exporting eight electric vehicle (EV) battery technologies that give its cheap EVs a price edge over foreign rivals. That will protect Chinese EV makers' technical edge, but make it harder for them to set up manufacturing plants in the EU or U.S. AFGHANISTAN •The UK belatedly admitted that it accidentally exposed personally identifiable information for 18-19,000 Afghans who worked with its military during the war and then applied for resettlement in the UK in a 2022 data leak. •To prevent the Taliban from carrying out targeted reprisals against countrymen who worked for the other side, the then-Conservative government successfully obtained a High Court "super injunction" as soon as it found out about the leak - which was 18 months after it happened - and then spirited around 4,500 Afghans (~900 applicants and ~3,600 of their family members) away to the UK. •The secret-until-now Afghan Relocation Route program aims to relocate another ~6,900 Afghans - including 600 Afghan soldiers whose data was disclosed in the leak - before it closes, at a total cost of about £850 million ($1.1 billion). IRAN •U.S. SecState Rubio said that he and his British, French, and German counterparts agreed in a phone call yesterday to set a deadline of Aug. 31 for reaching a new nuclear deal with Iran. •If a deal isn't finalized by then, a "snapback" mechanism would automatically reimpose the UN Security Council sanctions that were in place before the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) lifted them in exchange for Iran's agreement to new restrictions on its nuclear programs. •Separately, the U.S. FBI added three Iranian officials - including Iran's current Ambassador to Pakistan - to its "Most Wanted List" for their involvement in the 2007 disappearance and subsequent murder of FBI agent Robert Levinson in Iranian custody. VENEZUELA •Amnesty International published a new report (https://t.co/VgaYavuD3q) accusing Venezuela's leadership of crimes against humanity for using "enforced disappearances as part of a widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population, particularly those they consider dissidents." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 March 2025 VENEZUELA •Pres. Trump accused Pres. Maduro's government of "purposefully and deceitfully" sending criminals and murderers - i.e. the Tren de Aragua gang - to the U.S., and announced plans to impose a punitive 25% tariff on all imports from countries that buy oil from Venezuela - even indirectly. •The largest buyers of Venezuelan oil are China, the U.S. (via Chevron's production, which Trump has ordered to wind down), Spain, and India. Rystad Energy thinks the threat of new tariffs will lead those buyers to seek other sources of oil, which should be fairly easy for all four countries: Venezuelan oil is not a major share of total oil imports for any of them. •Separately, the U.S. resumed deportation flights to Venezuela via Honduras after striking a deal with both Venezuela and Honduras over the weekend. TURKEY •Pres. Erdogan isn't backing down from his standoff with Istanbul mayor - and potential rival for the presidency - Ekrem Imamoglu. •Erdogan had Imamoglu fired from his mayoral post and re-arrested on Sunday - just hours before Imamoglu's party planned to name him as its candidate for the next presidential election. •Erdogan accuses Imamoglu of corruption and supporting terrorism; Imamoglu says the charges against him are bogus and politically motivated. •Tens of thousands of Turks seem to side with Imamoglu: the mayor's arrest sparked the biggest protests Turkey has seen in over 10 years, and Erdogan's authoritarian response - to arrest over 1,000 demonstrators, including journalists - risks feeding protesters additional grievances against Erdogan to rally behind. GAZA •Egypt proposed a new, limited ceasefire proposal for Gaza and said Hamas responded positively to the terms, which would see Hamas release five hostages in return for Israel lifting restrictions on aid flows. •Israel said it hadn't seen the proposal yet. AFGHANISTAN •The U.S. lifted bounties on three senior Taliban officials: Sirajuddin Haqqani, Abdul Azizi Haqqani, and Yahya Haqqani. •The reprieve was apparently part of a deal that U.S. envoy Adam Boehler struck when he visited Kabul last week. In return, the Taliban released a U.S. citizen who had been detained in Afghanistan for over two years. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan continues to edge closer to another civil war. Forces loyal to Pres. Kiir carried out airstrikes on a military base aligned with First Vice President Riek Machar near Juba on Sunday, and then arrested several of Machar's senior allies yesterday. •Kiir's side accused Machar's opposition of "scaling up their movements" and said Machar's forces had deployed a patrol "in military formation" to observe army positions. Both sides seem to be preparing to fight.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 January Sudan •The U.S. Treasury formally accused the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of perpetrating genocide in Sudan and slapped additional sanctions on RSF leader Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemedti) and seven Emirati companies that have helped him export gold and import weapons. •This is the second time the U.S. has called out genocide in Sudan: the first was 20 years ago when it sanctioned the Janjaweed - a precursor to the RSF back when the RSF was aligned with the military and before it started fighting against it - of genocide in Darfur. •The genocide accusation and attached sanctions won't have much of an immediate effect on the raging war since Hemedti is already well armed. In fact, the move could turn out to be counterproductive if it repels Hemedti from negotiations. •Meanwhile, the military is gaining ground against the RSF in Omdurman, which is across the Nile from Khartoum. Ukraine and Russia •Ukrainian drones targeted Kursk's Engel oil depot, which supplies many of the long-range bombers Russia is using to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Russia claimed its air defenses intercepted the attack, mitigating its damage. •Despite Ukraine's new offensive in Kursk, Russia continues to gain ground inside Ukraine. Earlier this week, Russian forces captured the strategic eastern Ukrainian town of Kurakhove after months of fighting. •Some analysts think Ukraine's Kursk offensive is intended to draw Russian resources away from the front lines in Ukraine and slow Russia's advance there. Venezuela •Pres. Maduro announced the arrest of seven foreign "mercenaries" who he says were planning "terrorist acts" to disrupt his (illegitimate) inauguration on Friday. •Maduro said the group included two Colombian "hitmen," three "mercenaries" from Ukraine, and two U.S. citizens who were "very high level" (though he didn't say at what). •Maduro expressed confidence that the seven will confess "in the next few hours." Afghanistan •The WSJ reported that the Biden Administration is in talks with the Taliban to free three U.S. citizens from Afghan jail in exchange for the release of Muhammad Rahim al Afghani - a senior Al Qaeda leader with direct links to Osama bin Laden - from Guantanamo Bay. •The specific terms aren't agreed yet: for example, the Taliban says it is only holding two of the three Americans the U.S. requested (all of whom were jailed in the past two years under Taliban rule), and it wants the U.S. to release two more Afghan prisoners (who are not at Guantanamo) as well. •Biden's critics are already calling it a bad deal. It is... Gaza •Incoming Pres. Trump will send an envoy to Doha for last-ditch negotiations to try to secure a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal before Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20. Trump warned that "all hell will break out" if the talks fail to produce a deal before his inauguration. Other News •The UK's new electronic travel authorization (ETA) system goes into effect today. •Travelers to the UK from many non-European countries - including the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Mexico - will now have to apply for an ETA online (https://t.co/S6qsn94JfX or via iOS or Google Play apps) and pay a £10 ($12.51) fee with each application. •Processing takes up to three days, and authorizations are good for multiple entries over a two year period or until the authorized passport expires, whichever is shorter. •After April 2, travelers to the UK from European countries will need to apply for an ETA too.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 Sept Middle East •As the dust settled on Israel's strikes in southern and eastern Lebanon, the Lebanese health ministry counted at least 558 dead and 1,645 injured - including 50 women, 94 children, and some first responders. Israel said it was only targeting Hezbollah and accused Hezbollah of using civilians as human shields. •Israel then followed up with an airstrike on southern Beirut that killed a Hezbollah commander involved in the group's rocket attacks. •Then Hezbollah lobbed a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv that Iron Dome intercepted. •Some Israeli hawks want to take advantage of a weakened Hezbollah in disarray and invade southern Lebanon now, while cooler heads - like defense minister Gallant - prefer to give Hezbollah a chance to back down and avoid escalation. •The WSJ warned that a ground invasion "could turn into a quagmire, much like the war in Gaza." Despite Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah still has a dangerous arsenal of rockets, drones, and antitank missiles; and it continues to smuggle more in. It has also had ample time to fortify a tunnel network of the sort that has bogged Israeli ground troops down in Gaza. •Thousands of people fled the southern and eastern Lebanon in anticipation of further escalation. Ukraine •Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky told the UN Security Council "Russia must be forced into peace" and said he had formed a new "victory plan" that he planned to present to Pres. Biden imminently. •Zelensky also claimed to have evidence showing that Russia is planning to attack Ukraine's three nuclear plants. Venezuela •An Argentine federal court responded to Venezuela's arrest warrant for Argentina's Pres. Milei by ordering the arrest of Pres. Maduro and his top henchman, Diosdado Cabello, for committing crimes against humanity against dissidents. China •China carried out a successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile, and - unusually - announced it publicly. •The wording of the defense ministry's announcement was nothing special - it said the missile "fell into expected sea areas" and was merely part of a "routine arrangement in our annual training plan" - but the fact that there was an announcement at all suggests an emboldened missile program (it usually conducts tests quietly deep inside its territory and doesn't comment on their outcomes). •Separately, China announced new stimulus measures and interest rate cuts to boost consumer spending and property investment. The central bank had aimed for 5% GDP growth this year, but that now looks ambitious. Afghanistan •Speaking at an event on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, actress Meryl Streep poetically pointed out: "Today in Kabul a female cat has more freedom than a woman. A cat may go sit on her front stoop and feel the sun on her face, she may chase a squirrel in the park... A squirrel has more rights than a girl in Afghanistan today because the public parks have been closed to women and girls by the Taliban. A bird may sing in Kabul, but a girl may not in public." •A Taliban spokesman responded that his fellow officials in fact "highly respected" women and would "never compare them to cats." Libya •A delegation of assistant and deputy U.S. officials visited Libya to show support for Government of National Unity Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and his eastern rival, Khalifa Haftar, as the two sides try agree on a resolution to their dispute over the central bank's leadership (and management of oil revenues). •Telegram founder Pavel Durov - who faces French criminal charges for complicity in illegal activity by users of the platform - changed his stance and agreed to cooperate with authorities. •He announced in a new Telegram post that the platform has updated its terms and privacy policy to explicitly disclose that "the IP addresses and phone numbers of those who violate our rules can be disclosed to relevant authorities in response to valid legal requests"
Open source reportOff Leash Update 23 Aug Ukraine •According to Ukraine's commander-in-chief, Gen. Syrsky, Ukrainian troops have now advanced as far as 35 km into Kursk. •Russia has shifted some troops from Chasiv Yar to defend against the Kursk invasion, but the operation hasn't diverted Russian forces away from Ukrainian front lines as much as Ukraine hoped it would. •Russia still has the upper hand in Pokrovsk, for example, and Ukrainian troops there just withdrew to avoid being encircled. •Last week, German prosecutors issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian allegedly involved in the 2022 attacks sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines. Now German anger at the possibility that Ukraine was behind the attacks is morphing into new scrutiny of German support for Ukraine. •Chancellor Scholz insisted that Germany remains "Ukraine's biggest national supporter in Europe," but his unpopular ruling coalition is facing popular and fiscal pressure to reduce its overall spending - as well as its spending on Ukraine. Venezuela •Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice - which Pres. Maduro stacked with supporters - unsurprisingly ruled in his favor and certified his fraudulent election victory. •The court said its ruling was based on "national and international experts" and was "supported by the tally reports issued by each of the vote machines" - though the vast majority of "international experts" are certainly not on Maduro's side (save a few Chinese techs that are helping Maduro steal the vote), and neither Maduro nor the court has released any tally reports to support their claims. •The opposition, meanwhile, has released online tallies showing that its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, won seven million votes to Maduro's three million. The court said the opposition's tallies were forged. Afghanistan •Afghan women lost their figurative voices when the Taliban took over in 2021; now they're losing their voices in a more literal way - and losing other rights, too. A new 114-page Taliban document now forbids women from talking loudly (even inside their own homes), singing or reading the Koran in public, or merely looking at men they don't know. •The new edict also forbids Afghan men from trimming their beards. •One Afghan former civil servant told The Telegraph: "The international community’s engagement with the Taliban has emboldened them to further suppress women," and that seems plausible. •In a further sign of international engagement with the Taliban, the UAE officially accepted a Taliban ambassador today. That makes the UAE the second country - after China - to legitimize the Taliban government by accepting its ambassador.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 24 June Coming Up This Week •WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich will go on trial in Yekaterinburg, Russia on trumped-up espionage charges starting Wednesday. The media will be locked out of the trial, which could last between four months and one year. •Iran will vote for a successor to late president Raisi on Friday. The clerics have blocked most reformist candidates from running...which could backfire and split conservative support between five hardline candidates, leaving the sole moderate candidate allowed on the ballot - Masoud Pezeshkian - with a greater share of the vote than he would've otherwise received (he's still unlikely to win - and even if he wins, unlikely to effect change from the mostly-symbolic presidency). •On Saturday, the UN will hold a conference on Afghanistan in Qatar, and the Taliban will attend for the first time. To the dismay of some rights campaigners, the UN dropped all the preconditions that deterred the Taliban from attending the two previous UN conferences on Afghanistan - like including women's rights on the agenda - to encourage Taliban participation. •The first round of France's snap parliamentary election will also take place on Saturday. Polls predict strong support for the far-right Rassemblement National. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,514/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $22,900/ton •Cobalt: $27,150/ton •Copper: $9,683/ton •Gold: $2,332/toz •Lead: $2,191/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.70/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $80.87/barrel •Zinc: $2,844/ton Russia •Gunmen carried out several coordinated attacks on churches, synogogues, and police stations in two cities in the restive, majority-Muslim Russian region of Dagestan. •Russian authorities said the attackers were "adherents of an international terrorist organization," and their tactics and high degree of coordination recall Islamic State-Khorasan's (IS-K's) attack on Crocus Hall three months ago, but no group - including IS-K - has claimed the Dagestan attacks yet. •Pres. Putin prefers to brush ethnic and religious tensions under the rug to preserve pro-Russia harmony, so these latest attacks will be another annoyance for him. Some pro-Putin politicians are already blaming the West (without evidence) for inciting them. Ukraine •Russian authorities also blamed the U.S. for supplying the ATACMS missiles they say Ukraine used in a strike on Crimea that ended up killing at least four civilians on a crowded beach in Crimea yesterday. •[To be clear, Ukraine didn't target a crowded beach: Russia intercepted missiles headed for military targets (which Russia says the U.S. helped identify) as they flew over a crowded beach, causing fragments to fall on beachgoers below.] Gaza •Prime Minister Netanyahu told an interviewer that Israel's current ground offensive in southern Gaza is "about to end," and suggested that he could redeploy some of the troops fighting there to the north to intimidate - and perhaps eventually fight - Hezbollah. •Meanwhile, Israel's Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, is in Washington this week to lobby for continued U.S. support for Israel. Afghanistan •Nicaragua appointed a "non-resident" ambassador to Afghanistan, but stopped short of officially recognizing the Taliban government. The new envoy, Michael Campbell, is also Nicaragua's ambassador to China, and will serve both roles from his office in Beijing. •Afghanistan scored a surprise upset against Australia in the T20 Cricket World Cup on Saturday. I don't understand anything about cricket or how it's scored, but I can tell from the media's gushing reports that Afghanistan's "148/6 (20)" was an impressive win over the reigning champion's "127 (19.2)". Afghanistan plays Bangladesh tomorrow and could still make the semi-finals. Energy in Africa •Guinea-Conakry's junta signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia's Rosatom for an ambitious project to build a floating nuclear power plant.
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 June Gaza •The UN Security Council (UNSC) passed a U.S.-backed resolution supporting the latest Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, with Russia abstaining instead of blocking the vote with a veto. The UNSC's support is symbolically important because it conveys broad international backing for a deal, but ultimately only Israel and Hamas can sign off on this deal. •To that end, SecState Blinken is on his eighth trip since Oct. 7 to the Middle East with a straightforward message for the foreign leaders he'll meeting with: "If you want a ceasefire, press Hamas to say, yes." •Blinken is portraying Hamas's assent as the only remaining obstacle to a ceasefire deal, but Israel hasn't agreed to the current terms yet, either. •It's true that the current terms were originally conceived by Israel before Pres. Biden leaked them to the media (on a Friday night after Israel's ultra-orthodox - who oppose offering Hamas any concessions - had powered off their phones for the sabbath), but PM Netanyahu will have a hard time selling the deal to his most conservative supporters, who have threatened to abandon his fragile coalition if he fails to destroy Hamas. •Meanwhile, NBC News reported that the U.S. is considering a separate bilateral deal with Hamas to release five American hostages. It's not clear what the U.S. would offer Hamas in return. Ukraine •Ukraine claimed it successfully destroyed one of Russia's ~14 remaining Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jets in a drone strike on the Akhtubinsk airfield inside Russia. Initial reports suggest Ukraine used its own drones in the strike - not advanced Western weapons it recently got permission to use inside Russia. •Separately, an investigation by BBC Russia and Mediazona found that over 19,500 Wagner mercenaries died in the "Bakhmut meat grinder" between Jan. 2022 and Aug. 2023. That's consistent with the "over 20,000" men that Wagner's late founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said he lost in the grueling battle for the town. •The new report said over 17,000 of the men Wagner lost in Bakhmut were former prisoners that Pres. Putin pardoned in exchange for their commitment to fight. Yemen •Yemen's Houthi rebels said they interrupted an "American-Israeli spy cell" after arresting around 12 UN personnel and staff of a U.S.-funded pro-democracy group, the National Democratic Institute. U.S., Israeli, and UN officials declined to comment. Afghanistan •Russia's foreign ministry said it's considering removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations in order to facilitate dialogue on "issues such as drug trafficking, terrorism, and organized crime." •Delisting could be the first step towards recognizing the Taliban government. [Russia - which lost global allies after invading Ukraine and is eager for international friends - would be the first country to officially recognize the Taliban government.] Other News •A plane carrying Malawi's vice president, a former first lady, and eight others went missing in bad weather. Pres. Chakwera said authorities are searching through thick brush with "every fiber of hope that we will find survivors."
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 May Gaza •Israel is facing heat for its strike in Rafah that successfully targeted two senior Hamas militants - but apparently also ignited a fire that killed at least 45 displaced Palestinians sheltering in a tented camp near the site of the strike. Israel blamed Hamas for hiding high-ranking leaders behind civilians. The UN Security Council will meet in a closed session today to discuss the incident. •Separately, Egyptian and Israeli soldiers exchanged fire on the Egypt-Gaza border yesterday. Egyptian eyewitnesses told Reuters an Egyptian guard fired at the Israeli troops first - after watching them chase and kill some Palestinians on the other side of the border. North Korea •North Korea attempted to launch a second spy satellite, but the rocket carrying it exploded shortly after launch. •The timing of the attempted launch was peculiar because it coincided with a trilateral meeting between China, Japan, and South Korea; and must have distracted from their summit. North Korea usually avoids inconveniencing China, its top ally. •Pyongyang blamed the rocket's failure on the new liquid oxygen-petroleum engine it employed, which analysts say suggests Russia may have supplied or advised North Korea (Russia is a global leader in liquid oxygen-fuel technologies). Afghanistan •A senior Russian diplomat told the state-run TASS news agency that his government is considering removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, and could then consider formally recognizing the Taliban government. •That would be the second of two recent moves to embrace the Taliban: the first was inviting Taliban delegates to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum early next month. •Russia doesn't have many friends these days, which is perhaps why it's willing to embrace unsavory company like the Taliban. Sahel •The EU announced that it would be following the U.S.'s example and ending its Military Partnership Mission in Niger early - rather than continuing to work with an uncooperative junta that is cozying up to Russia. The EU's mission was supposed to run through Dec. 2025; instead, it will wrap up at the end of June 2024. Other News •The government of Papua New Guinea belatedly ordered thousands of people to evacuate the path of the landslides that have already buried an estimated 2,000 people - and are still actively blanketing more terrain.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 May Iran •Iranian state media blamed the helicopter crash that killed Pres. Raisi on "technical failure," and that seems like a reasonable explanation for it: the Bell 212 helicopter Raisi was flying in was over 40 years old and weather conditions were poor. •Ayatollah Khamenei lamented the loss of his protégé Raisi, but vowed that there would be "no disruption" to the government. That's true: Iran's president is a figurehead beholden to the clerics, who will ensure that Raisi's successor is another conservative hardliner. Gaza •The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor requested arrest warrants for both Israeli PM Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar for war crimes and crimes against humanity, emphasizing that "international law and the laws of armed conflict apply to all." •In this case, those laws probably won't be applied to either Netanyahu or Sinwar in court: even if judges decide to issue the requested warrants, the process would take months, and neither Israel nor Gaza recognizes the court's authority, so Netanyahu and Sinwar would be safe from arrest as long as they don't travel to any of the court's 124 member countries. •Separately, U.S National Security Advisor Sullivan traveled to Israel to nudge PM Netanyahu toward a ceasefire agreement linked to a "political strategy" for Gaza's future. China •China added three U.S. defense contractors that sell to Taiwan - General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, General Dynamics Land Systems and Boeing Defense, Space & Security - to its list of "unreliable entities" that are banned from exporting to or importing from China. •A U.S. Senate inquiry found that BMW, Jaguar Land Rover, and Volkswagen imported parts purchased (indirectly) from a Chinese supplier known to use forced labor in Xinjiang province. Sen. Wyden (D-OR) blamed the manufacturers for not doing enough to vet their suppliers: "automakers are sticking their heads in the sand and then swearing they can’t find any forced labor in their supply chains." Ukraine •Ukraine implemented nationwide rolling blackouts for the first time this year to conserve precious power supplies, which have been constrained by Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. •Russia's offensive in northern Ukraine has slowed down, and Ukrainian forces are holding the Russians back between Kharkiv and the border. Afghanistan •An explosion in the Taliban's political heartland of Kandahar killed at least one person yesterday. •The Taliban's official statements depicted the blast as a minor incident that randomly targeted civilians, but local reports claimed it was a much more serious attack that targeted Taliban security forces, killing far more than one person. Saudi Arabia •Saudi's King Salman is suffering from a lung infection and it's severe enough that his son, Crown Prince MBS, postponed a planned trip to Japan to be with his ailing father. Other News •The UK's High Court ruled that WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange can appeal his pending extradition to the U.S. to face charges under the Espionage Act. He will try to appeal on the basis that - as a foreign national (he's Australian) - he wouldn't get a fair trial in the U.S.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 May Gaza •Israeli ground troops entered Rafah yesterday and took control of the border crossing with Egypt. •The U.S. had cautioned Israel against invading Rafah, and the White House said it withheld the shipment of 1,800 x 2,000-lb bombs and 1,700 x 500-lb bombs to Israel last week because of concerns they could be dropped on Rafah - a move the BBC called the U.S.'s "biggest warning yet for Israel." •Perhaps in response to U.S. pressure, Israel appears to have toned down its Rafah plans from the full invasion it had envisaged to "a very precise" counterterrorism operation, and that tempered approach may have helped Hamas back down from its hard threat to walk away from ceasefire talks if Israel entered Rafah: negotiators from both sides remain engaged. •Some reports suggest that the proposal Hamas accepted - which PM Netanyahu seemed dissatisfied with - agreed to release 33 hostages...but that after Hamas's "minor word changes" dead hostages would count among the 33 to be released. Ukraine •Ukraine's security services said they had foiled a Russian plot to assassinate Pres. Zelensky and other military and political figures in Kyiv, and arrested two Ukrainian colonels suspected of treasonous collaboration with Russian intelligence agents on the plan. •Kyiv's official statement alleged that the Ukrainian colonels were part of a Russian-run network assigned to identify other potential traitors with links to Zelensky's security team who could capture the president and then kill him. •Russia has considered similar operations before: Zelensky recently told Italian media that he was aware of at least 10 previous Russian attempts on his life. •Separately, Russia launched a "massive" missile and drone attack on energy infrastructure targets throughout Ukraine early this morning, which was a rather violent way to commemorate today's national holiday celebrating the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in WWII. Ukraine said it intercepted 39 of 55 Russian missiles and 20 of 21 drones. Russia •Pres. Putin was inaugurated for a fifth six-year term as Russia's head of state. •Hopefully he didn't celebrate his inauguration in the same way he honored a 2013 visit by former (and late) Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi: Berlusconi's former aide recently recounted a bizarre anecdote from that trip in which Putin shot dead a deer and cut out its heart for his hunting buddy Berlusconi, who promptly puked behind a tree. •Anyway, Russian law now requires Putin to form a new government at the start of his new term, and - while he's allowed to roll over the exact same government in place now and has shown no sign of considering a major pivot - analysts say this could be a good time to make some minor changes. •In particular, some think Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's job may be at risk after his deputy was sacked last month. China •The UK's defence secretary said his Ministry of Defence (MoD) believes a hack of its payroll system "was the suspected work of a malign actor," and media leaks strongly hinted that the MoD blamed China. China reacted to the implication, calling it a "fabricated and malicious slander." •Separately (though perhaps not entirely unrelated to news of Chinese hacking), TikTok sued the U.S. government over a proposed law that would force TikTok's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest the app or face a ban. Afghanistan •A sticky bomb targeted a Taliban convoy in restive Badakhshan province today - just a day after the army chief said he'd addressed local farmers' concerns about the poppy ban and quelled their unprecedented protests over it (by threatening to bring the military in). It appears the farmers are still upset. Strategic Minerals •Chinese cobalt reached its lowest price since April 2016 - $29,065 per ton (min. 99.8% Co min, ex-works) - because of oversupply caused by a rapid expansion in Chinese processing capacity. China processes 70-80% of the world's cobalt.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 May Coming Up This Week •China's Pres. Xi is in Europe this week on a trip the NYT says "is likely to be seen as a none-too-subtle effort to divide Western allies." He'll visit France, Serbia (on the 25th anniversary of NATO's accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade tomorrow), and Hungary. •Chad votes for president today, making it the first of the West African countries that fell to a coup in recent years to hold an election with the stated intent to return to democracy. [Opposition groups call that a lie, though: junta leader Mahamat Idriss Deby - who grabbed power after rebels killed his long-ruling father, Pres. Idriss Deby, in 2021 - is expected to win (it helps that 10 rivals were excluded from the ballot for "irregularities" and security forces shot an 11th dead in February). Deby's critics say the election is a sham designed to legitimize his rule.] •One of the energy industry's biggest tradeshows, the Offshore Technology Conference, begins today and runs through Thursday in Texas. •Russia celebrates its bloody victory over Nazi Germany - known as Victory Day in Russia - on Thursday, May 9 too. •The Eurovision finals are on Saturday, May 11. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,552/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $15,100/ton •Cobalt: $27,830/ton •Copper: $9,910/ton •Gold: $2,318/toz •Lead: $2,215/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.14/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $78.92/barrel •Zinc: $2,903/ton Gaza •Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas broke down once again and Hamas negotiators left Cairo. •This time the main point of disagreement wasn't the number of hostages to be released, but rather the duration of a truce: Hamas wants a permanent one, and Israel fears that would let Hamas rebuild its arsenal to stage future attacks. •Israel appears to be preparing to launch its ground offensive in Rafah, and may be further encouraged by a Hamas rocket attack launched from Rafah that killed three Israeli soldiers and led Israel to close the Kerem Shalom border crossing to aid trucks. •Israel called on Palestinian civilians to evacuate certain parts of Rafah ahead of a "limited scope" operation, but it's not clear if this is related to the looming ground invasion of the city. •Separately, Israel's cabinet voted to close local operations for Qatar-based Al Jazeera - which it called "a Hamas mouthpiece" - for at least 45 days. Journalists decried the ban as a violation of their freedom of expression. India •Canadian police arrested three Indian nationals linked to the assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Vancouver last June. PM Trudeau believes Pres. Modi's government ordered the killing, and he's probably right - though Delhi denies it. Afghanistan •Residents of northeastern Badakhshan province started an unprecedented protest on Friday against the Taliban government, which had begun to destroy local poppy fields. •The Taliban responded with a heavy hand over the weekend, firing at protesters to disperse them and killing at least two in the process. •Taliban officials say the protests are over and Badakhshan is back to normal, but locals remain angry with the government and its nationwide ban on lucrative poppy production. Its heavy-handed response to quell protests probably further fueled their anger. Sahel •Two new Russian transport planes arrived in Niger over the weekend. The first plane preceding them, which arrived April 10th, carried around 100 Russian trainers, so these next two could easily triple the number of Russian advisors working with the junta. •Separately, Nigerien officials ordered several Chinese-owned gold mines to temporarily close after local herders reported that dozens in their flocks had died from suspected groundwater contamination (the region isn't currently suffering from drought or any known animal epidemics).
Open source reportOff Leash 11 April Gaza Israel's latest proposal asked Hamas to release elderly, ill, and female hostages - including five female soldiers - in return for a temporary ceasefire and release of Palestinian prisoners, but Hamas responded to tell negotiators it hasn't been able to locate 40 hostages fitting the bill. That admission raised concerns that more of the hostages than previously thought may have died. [Although that's not certain: Hamas officials also suggested it's just hard to locate dispersed hostages in the fog of war, and asked for a ceasefire to gather them from other militant groups and even families some are reported to be quartered with]. Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike killed three sons of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. The elder Haniyeh lives in exile in Qatar, but Israel says all three of his sons were Hamas military operatives. Their father was defiant: "The enemy is delusional if it thinks that by killing my children, we will change our positions. We shall not give in, no matter the sacrifices." While Israel continues to carry out airstrikes in Gaza, it has mostly reduced its ground presence and continues to boost aid flows into the strip. Defense minister Gallant announced plans to "flood Gaza with aid" through a new land crossing in the north that will shorten the distance aid trucks travel between Ashdod port and Gaza. China Canadian PM Trudeau testified at a government hearing about foreign interference, saying China tried to interfere in Canada's last two elections - although not in a way that affected the results, and probably not favoring one party over another. Venezuela Colombia's Pres. Petro said he met with Venezuela's opposition in Caracas, but he actually only met with Socialist Party-approved "opposition" candidate Manuel Rosales, and he did so with Pres. Maduro's approval. [Some analysts think Rosales was allowed to join the ballot for July's election because his candidacy lends a veneer of legitimacy to the rigged poll without posing a real threat to Maduro's re-election.] Petro's team didn't reach out to the united opposition under Maria Corina Machado - and Maduro probably wouldn't have let Petro meet any real opposition figures. Petro is trying to stay in Maduro's good graces because he wants to sign a deal that would see Colombia's Ecopetrol produce Venezuelan oil and gas. Afghanistan Reclusive Taliban leader Hibatullah Akundzada gave a rare public address during Eid prayers yesterday and doubled down on his government's Byzantine policies: "If anyone has any issues with us, we are open to resolving them, but we will never compromise on our principles or Islam. At the same time, we expect that Islam will not be disrespected. I will not take even a step away from the Islamic law." [Islamic law, in his view, recently led to the repeal of a ban on publicly stoning women to death for adultery - although no stonings have been carried out since the ban was repealed last month.] Other News Pres. Biden hosted an elaborate dinner for Japanese PM Fumio Kishida that was attended by Apple's Tim Cook, Amazon's Jeff Bezos, and Chase's Jamie Dimon. During meetings earlier in the day, the U.S. and Japan agreed to join three-way military exercise with Australia to counter China's growing influence in the Pacific. South Korea's opposition won a surprise landslide in yesterday's parliamentary elections, humbling Pres. Yoon and his conservative party and complicating their plans to pass legislation for the three years left in Yoon's term. PM Han Dong-hoon offered to resign. A South African court ruled that former president Jacob Zuma will be allowed to run for parliament under the newly-formed MK party on May 29 - despite a criminal conviction for refusing to cooperate with a graft investigation.
Open source report