Off Leash: Gaza force posture, Iran retaliation risk and regional political developments

Off Leash update 8 April Yesterday marked the 30-year anniversary of the start of Rwanda's 100-day genocide. President Kagame - who is running for re-election in July - commemorated the occasion with a ceremony celebrating the country's progress under his leadership since then.

A total solar eclipse will cross the U.S. from Texas to Maine this afternoon. A map here shows the total eclipse path and partial eclipse gradients.

Pres. Biden is hosting a trilateral summit with Japan's PM Kashido and Pres. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines Wednesday. They're expected to discuss maritime cooperation to counter China's influence in the South China Sea. South Korea votes in parliamentary elections on Wednesday. Pres. Yoon isn't up for election, but his party's performance in the vote will be a sign of his own popularity.

Commodity Prices Aluminum: $2,451/ton Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $13,450/ton Cobalt: $28,550/ton Copper: $9,330/ton Gold: $2,339/toz Lead: $2,124/ton Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.79/MMbtu WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $86.31/barrel Zinc: $2,639/ton Gaza Israel said it withdrew a division of ground troops from Khan Younis and southern Gaza "to recuperate and prepare for future operations," and Palestinians returned to the rubbled city. Some analysts suggested that the "future operations" part could portend a ground invasion of Rafah, which Israel has been planning for months. Meanwhile, Israel carried out another airstrike in southern Lebanon, killing the commander of Hezbollah's Radwan Brigade, which Israel blames for firing rockets into its northern villages. Separately, the International Court of Justice began hearing Nicaragua's case against Germany over German military and financial aid for Israel. Nicaragua argues that Germany's support has "contributed to the commission of genocide" in Gaza. Finally, Egypt's Al Qahera reported cautious optimism that Israel and Hamas had agreed on basic points in their ongoing ceasefire talks in Cairo. However, Hamas corrected that report by saying talks were still stalled. Iran U.S. officials expect Iran to launch a "significant" retaliatory attack in revenge for Israel's strike that killed seven Iranian military officers in Damascus. Some suggested Iran could strike either within Israel or against U.S. or Israeli facilities (like embassies) in other countries. To me, a direct strike on Israel seems unlikely, since it would be a disproportionate and dangerous escalation that Israel would force Israel to respond similarly. It also seems unlikely that Iran would pull the U.S. into the fray with an attack on a U.S. facility. Pres. Raisi's chief of staff even wrote to Washington warning the U.S. to "step aside" and avoid involvement so it doesn't "get dragged into Netanyahu's trap." It's more likely that Iran will find a way to retaliate with a limited and targeted operation against a specific Israeli target that placates its hardliners who are demanding action but avoids angering Israel into re-retaliating. Ukraine The International Atomic Energy Agency said Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station - which has been under Russian control since Feb. 2022 - sustained damage yesterday from drone attacks that damaged its reactor and killed one person. Russia accused Ukraine of "nuclear terrorism," but Ukraine insists it wasn't involved and instead suggested Russia was responsible - though it's unclear why Russia would strike a nuclear plant it controls.

Ecuador stormed the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest Jorge Glas, a former Ecuadorian vice president who took refuge in the compound in December to avoid a prison sentence for corruption. Mexico was offended by the affront and promptly cut diplomatic ties with Ecuador. NYT analysts pointed out that Ecuadorian president Daniel Noboa likely calculated that arresting Glas would boost his sagging approval ratings ahead of an election next year.