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Iran and the IAEA agreed on practical arrangements for inspectors to return to Iranian nuclear sites. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom initiated a 30-day consultation period that could lead to restored UN sanctions, and that Iran warned its cooperation would end if sanctions return.
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Iran and the IAEA agreed on practical arrangements for inspectors to return to Iranian nuclear sites. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom initiated a 30-day consultation period that could lead to restored UN sanctions, and that Iran warned its cooperation would end if sanctions return.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
International Atomic Energy Agency dossier
5 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station
According to the IAEA, a report that drone attacks damaged a reactor and killed one person at the Russian-controlled plant. Russia blamed Ukraine, while Ukraine denied involvement and suggested Russian responsibility.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Venezuelan oil revenue and an AI cybersecurity incident.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Sept HAMAS •An Israeli airstrike targeted Hamas's leadership-in-exile in Qatar while they were reportedly meeting to discuss a new, U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal. •Hamas said the strike missed its most senior targets but killed five lower-level members, including the son of the militia's senior negotiator, and a Qatari security officer. •The strike - thought to be Israel's first on Qatar - probably did more damage to U.S.-Israeli relations and Qatar's willingness to mediate ceasefire talks than it did to Hamas. •Pres. Trump said he was "very unhappy about every aspect of" the strike and specifically lamented Israel's unilateral action against Qatar, which Trump called "a Sovereign Nation and close Ally of the United States, that is working very hard and bravely taking risks with us to broker Peace." •Qatar's prime minister offered reassurances that his country would still continue its (thus far thankless and fruitless) role of mediating between Israel and Hamas, but seethed at Israel for violating Qatari sovereignty. He criticized Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu by name and called for "a response from the entire region to such barbaric actions." •Meanwhile, Hamas belatedly claimed responsibility for Monday's shooting that killed six in Jerusalem. •Netanyahu's office said the Jerusalem shooting was one of the factors that led Israel to target Hamas's leadership in Qatar, but it seems more likely that Israel's strike had been planned for months and was only waiting for an opportunity to target a gathered group of Hamas leaders. NEPAL •Nepal's "Gen Z" protesters were clearly not satisfied with the government's half-hearted (and mildly patronizing) concession to lift a nascent social media ban but ignore agitators' more significant calls for reform. •Nor did the demonstrators accept yesterday's resignations of the prime minister, KP Sharma Oli, and home minister as solutions. •Following the resignations, angry demonstrators set fire to the Supreme Court, the parliament building, the prime minister's residence (and residences of three former prime ministers), and the ruling Communist Party of Nepal's headquarters. •The military sent troops to restore order in Kathmandu - apparently unsuccessfully so far. The protests seem to be morphing into a broader, angrier expression of economic discontent and outrage over government corruption. FRANCE •Pres. Macron appointed his former defense minister and close ally, Sébastien Lecornu, to become his fifth prime minister. •Like his unsuccessful predecessor, François Bayrou, Lecornu is a centrist. He'll face the same resistance from both political extremes - the far left and the far right - that stalled Bayrou's budget proposal and ultimately ended his premiership. IRAN •Iran signed an agreement laying out "practical modalities" for International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts to resume inspections of Iran's nuclear sites, which were cut off in June when Israel - and then the U.S. - bombed the sites. •Iran is keen to cooperate with the IAEA to avoid a reinstatement of UN sanctions, which is a distinct possibility after France, Germany, and the UK notified the UN last week that Iran was in breach of its commitments to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal. •That notification started a 30-day clock for consultations in which both sides hope to avoid the drastic default option of a "snapback mechanism" that reimposes UN sanctions on Iran. •Iran's foreign minister noted that its agreement to resume IAEA inspections is contingent on reaching a deal to avoid reinstated sanctions, and - if sanctions are reimposed - "Iran will consider its cooperation with the agency to have come to an end." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 July GAZA •After weeks of consideration, Hamas submitted its response to Israel's latest 60-day ceasefire proposal. •Hamas's response reportedly sought changes to the proposed clauses on humanitarian aid flows, post-truce areas of control, and - most contentiously - guarantees regarding an end to the war. •Specifically, Hamas wants Israel to commit to fully withdrawing from Gaza after the war, while Israel refuses to withdraw with Hamas still in control of the territory. •The U.S. and Israel promptly rejected Hamas's response and withdrew their negotiating teams from Qatar, and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff angrily complained about Hamas's "lack of desire to reach a ceasefire." •Despite the U.S. and Israeli reaction, Hamas seemed surprised at how its response was received, and its officials remained optimistic that truce talks will continue next week. We'll see. •Meanwhile, the World Food Program estimated that one-third of Gaza's population of two million is currently "not eating for multiple days in a row." •Israel and the U.S. State Department blame Hamas for that: they - and the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation they back - allege that Hamas is systematically stealing humanitarian aid before it reaches hungry Gazans. (A new USAID study of 156 aid distribution incidents in June refutes this but acknowledges that an unacceptable share of aid falls through the cracks.) PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •In a letter to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Pres. Macron confirmed that France plans to recognize Palestinian statehood at this year's UN General Assembly in September, and will encourage its allies to do the same. •While most UN member states (147 of 193) recognize Palestine, France - which has Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim communities - would be the first G7 country to do so. •Israeli officials sharply criticized the long-expected announcement. Prime Minister Netanyahu said French recognition "rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy," and Defense Minister Katz called it "a disgrace and a surrender to terrorism." VENEZUELA •Reuters reported that the U.S. is preparing a new authorization allowing Chevron to resume operations in Venezuela under stricter limitations than those defined in previous operating licenses that were cancelled in February. •Similar rights could then be extended to European oil companies - specifically, Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol - under subsequent authorizations. •The newly tightened limitations would aim to force companies to swap certain imported supplies - rather than pay cash - for Venezuelan oil, thus further severing the Maduro regime's cash flow from oil sales. IRAN •Iran said it would allow inspectors from the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to visit for the strictly limited purpose of reestablishing a working relationship between the IAEA and Iran. The visiting inspectors would not be allowed access to Iran's nuclear sites.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 June COMING UP THIS WEEK •Canada's new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is hosting the 51st G7 summit today and tomorrow. •The biennial Paris Airshow opens today and runs through Thursday. Four Israeli firms - Elbit Systems, Rafael, IAI and Uvision - refused France's order to remove offensive weapons from their stands, and show organizers kicked them out. •Game 5 of the NBA Finals takes place tonight, followed by Game 6 on Thursday and Game 7 (if needed) on Sunday. The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder are tied at two games each; the first to four wins. •Thursday is a U.S. holiday for Juneteenth. •Thursday is also the latest deadline for TikTok's Chinese parent company, Bytedance, to sell the short-video app's U.S. operations to a new owner or face a shutdown, but Pres. Trump may grant Bytedance yet another extension. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,503/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,645/ton •Gold: $3,386/toz - up on geopolitical uncertainty over Iran-Israel fighting •Lead: $1,991/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.74/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $71.26/barrel - spiked over the weekend due to Iran-Israel fighting, but now down from weekend highs on reports that Iran wants a truce •Zinc: $2,623/ton IRAN •Iran and Israel continued to exchange missile strikes over the weekend and into today. Iran has reported 224 deaths from Israeli strikes, and Israel says Iran's strikes have killed 24 since Friday. •The International Atomic Energy Agency - the UN's nuclear agency - confirmed from satellite imagery that Israel's first barrage Friday destroyed Iran's above-ground nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz. Iran hides additional undisclosed enrichment operations underground where satellite photos can't see. •Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel's strikes are being "fully co-ordinated" with the U.S., but that seems to be the extent of U.S. involvement for now. Pres. Trump said the U.S. "could get involved" further in the future, but he seemed optimistic that that won't be necessary because the situation "is going to get resolved." •Russia's Pres. Putin has offered to mediate between Israel and Iran, and there are rumors that Iran is ready to end the fighting. IRAQ •Long War Journal pointed out that Iran-backed militias in Iraq have issued vague threats towards the U.S. and Israel, but haven't actually joined Iran's strikes on Israel and are directing their rhetorical ire at the U.S. instead. •One of the militias, Kataib Hezbollah, issued a statement yesterday indicating it would leave it to Iran to "bravely and steadfastly confront the Zionist aggression" [meaning Israel] while it focuses instead on "monitoring the movements of the American enemy’s military in the region." •Another Iran-backed U.S.-designated terrorist group in Iraq, Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, also focused its anger on the U.S. instead of Israel and called for U.S. forces to "be completely expelled from all Iraqi lands and airspace." •There have been at least two reports of attempted drone attacks on U.S. facilities in Iraq - one on Ain al Assad airbase in western Iraq, and another near the U.S. mission in Erbil. Neither attempt was claimed yet. U.S. TRAVEL BAN •The U.S. State Department said it identified 36 more "countries of concern" that are being considered for full or partial visa bans - in addition to the 12 full and seven partial visa bans announced earlier this month. •The 36 additional countries have 60 days to act to avoid a ban by lowering high overstay rates, resolving security issues, or addressing other U.S. grievances with their citizens' travel patterns.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 May UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •After Pres. Putin snubbed him for peace talks in Istanbul, Pres. Zelensky - who had already arrived in Turkey - instead met with Turkey's Pres. Erdogan in Ankara and sent a downsized delegation led by his defense minister to meet Russian envoys in Istanbul. •The downgraded Ukraine-Russia meeting was postponed from yesterday to today, and for a while it was unclear whether it would move forward at all. In the end, the U.S. mediated indirect negotiations this morning, and left Turkey to facilitate direct talks this afternoon. •These will be the first direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in three years, which is cause for celebration in itself. But few hold high hopes for any real breakthroughs in these lower-level meetings. •Pres. Trump told reporters that "nothing's going to happen until Putin and I get together," and said he plans to meet with Putin soon to kickstart progress towards a peace deal. SYRIA •SecState Rubio met with his Syrian counterpart, Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, in Antalya, Turkey yesterday to continue the rapprochement Pres. Trump started by announcing an end to U.S. sanctions on Syria and then meeting Pres. Al Sharaa in person earlier this week. •Syria is cheering Trump's move to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria, but the NYT cautiously pointed out that the process will take time: U.S. presidents can only annul some sanctions unilaterally; others can only be removed after slow-moving Congressional action. •Meanwhile, Syria's Central Bank Governor, Abdulkader Husrieh, penned an op-ed in The Economist pleading for international support for his herculean effort to rebuild Syria's war-torn economy. He specifically implored regional banks and the Syrian diaspora to help recapitalize and modernize Syria's financial sector, and asked the IMF and World Bank for funding as well as capacity-building and policy support. IRAN •Pres. Trump said that the U.S. and Iran are "getting close" to a nuclear deal and noted that "Iran has sort of agreed to the terms" after four rounds of negotiations. •It's not clear what exactly those terms will be. Trump's team has oscillated between insisting on harsh demands that Iran firmly rejects - like barring Iran from enriching uranium altogether, even to low grades for civilian use - and a more pragmatic approach that Tehran is likelier to agree to. •Talks have seemed cordial so far - Iran's foreign ministry described them as "difficult but useful" - but Trump ominously warned of "violence like people have never seen before" if negotiations fail (though he added "I don't want to do that step"). INDIA AND PAKISTAN •India's defense minister, Rajnath Singh, pointed to his country's recent beef with Pakistan as proof that Pakistan is a "rogue and irresponsible nation" whose nuclear weapons must be "brought under the surveillance" of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). •Pakistan's Foreign Ministry then shot back that the IAEA should instead investigate "the repeated theft and illicit trafficking incidents involving nuclear and radioactive material in India." VENEZUELA AND GUYANA •Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado called on supporters to boycott the May 25 gubernatorial elections. •Machado told AFP that the regional vote would be a "huge farce that the regime wants to stage to bury its defeat of July 28" - when the opposition participated in nationwide elections, only for Pres. Maduro to steal the vote and launch a violent crackdown afterwards. •Machado leads Venezuela's largest opposition movement, and many opposition supporters will likely heed her call to boycott the election, but some smaller opposition factions - including one led by former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles - plan to participate in the poll. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash Update 6 June Gaza •Israel and Hamas are reportedly still far from agreement on the terms of the latest U.S. ceasefire proposal. Indirect talks continue in Qatar. •Meanwhile, Israel launched a new operation against Hamas in Bureij and Deir al Balah, central Gaza. Israeli forces are hunting Hamas militants "above and below ground," including at a site that Israel says was a Hamas compound hidden in a school. Gaza's health ministry claimed Israel's strike on the school killed 27 people seeking shelter there - not Hamas militants. •A NYT investigation found that Israel planned and funded an ongoing social media campaign to influence U.S. lawmakers to support the war in Gaza by planting pro-war posts by fake "American" users. •Israel's campaign was among the AI-based influence operations Meta and OpenAI recently said had targeted their platforms over the past six months [Russia, Iran, and China also ran similar campaigns.] Both companies said none of the foreign influence campaigns had a widespread impact. Russia •Pres. Putin lashed out at Western countries - especially Germany - for allowing Ukraine to use their donated weapons to strike targets inside Russia. •The U.S. and UK have also given Russia permission to use their weapons to strike Russia, although the U.S. only ok'ed strikes on Russian regions near Kharkiv. •He warned that Russia would reciprocate in kind: "If someone thinks it possible to send such weapons to a war zone to strike our territory and create problems for us, then why do we not have the right to send our weapons of the same class to those regions of the world where strikes can be made on sensitive facilities of the countries that do this against Russia?" •[I would note that Russia was the first to use foreign-supplied weapons in cross-border attacks: it uses North Korean missiles and Iranian drones in Ukraine.] •I highly doubt Russia would consider direct strikes on German, American, or British soil because of the risk of igniting WWIII. Rather, Putin will probably try to target Western assets or personnel in Ukraine. Iran •The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted 20-2 (with 12 abstentions) to approve a resolution rebuking Iran for refusing to give IAEA inspectors access to its nuclear sites. •The two no votes were cast by Russia - which buys Iranian drones to use in Ukraine - and China - which circumvents sanctions to buy cheap Iranian oil. •The IAEA censure resolution isn't enforceable, but the fact that 20 countries voted to approve it may add a tiny bit of political pressure on Iran to cooperate with inspectors. (Unlikely) Venezuela •Pres. Maduro uninvited European Union observers from monitoring his farcical July 28 presidential election on hyperbolic grounds that EU compliance with "genocidal sanctions" on Venezuela is "interventionist." •The EU hadn't accepted Maduro's invitation anyway. •Plus, observers don't need to fly to Venezuela to conclude that the election won't be fair: Maduro is already manipulating the vote by bullying the opposition and blocking its strongest candidates from running against him. Other News •A lone gunman wearing a vest labeled "Islamic State" in Arabic and "IS" in English opened fire near the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon. He was quickly shot and arrested. Islamic State hasn't officially claimed the attack yet.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 April Yesterday marked the 30-year anniversary of the start of Rwanda's 100-day genocide. President Kagame - who is running for re-election in July - commemorated the occasion with a ceremony celebrating the country's progress under his leadership since then. A total solar eclipse will cross the U.S. from Texas to Maine this afternoon. A map here shows the total eclipse path and partial eclipse gradients. Pres. Biden is hosting a trilateral summit with Japan's PM Kashido and Pres. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines Wednesday. They're expected to discuss maritime cooperation to counter China's influence in the South China Sea. South Korea votes in parliamentary elections on Wednesday. Pres. Yoon isn't up for election, but his party's performance in the vote will be a sign of his own popularity. Commodity Prices Aluminum: $2,451/ton Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $13,450/ton Cobalt: $28,550/ton Copper: $9,330/ton Gold: $2,339/toz Lead: $2,124/ton Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.79/MMbtu WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $86.31/barrel Zinc: $2,639/ton Gaza Israel said it withdrew a division of ground troops from Khan Younis and southern Gaza "to recuperate and prepare for future operations," and Palestinians returned to the rubbled city. Some analysts suggested that the "future operations" part could portend a ground invasion of Rafah, which Israel has been planning for months. Meanwhile, Israel carried out another airstrike in southern Lebanon, killing the commander of Hezbollah's Radwan Brigade, which Israel blames for firing rockets into its northern villages. Separately, the International Court of Justice began hearing Nicaragua's case against Germany over German military and financial aid for Israel. Nicaragua argues that Germany's support has "contributed to the commission of genocide" in Gaza. Finally, Egypt's Al Qahera reported cautious optimism that Israel and Hamas had agreed on basic points in their ongoing ceasefire talks in Cairo. However, Hamas corrected that report by saying talks were still stalled. Iran U.S. officials expect Iran to launch a "significant" retaliatory attack in revenge for Israel's strike that killed seven Iranian military officers in Damascus. Some suggested Iran could strike either within Israel or against U.S. or Israeli facilities (like embassies) in other countries. To me, a direct strike on Israel seems unlikely, since it would be a disproportionate and dangerous escalation that Israel would force Israel to respond similarly. It also seems unlikely that Iran would pull the U.S. into the fray with an attack on a U.S. facility. Pres. Raisi's chief of staff even wrote to Washington warning the U.S. to "step aside" and avoid involvement so it doesn't "get dragged into Netanyahu's trap." It's more likely that Iran will find a way to retaliate with a limited and targeted operation against a specific Israeli target that placates its hardliners who are demanding action but avoids angering Israel into re-retaliating. Ukraine The International Atomic Energy Agency said Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station - which has been under Russian control since Feb. 2022 - sustained damage yesterday from drone attacks that damaged its reactor and killed one person. Russia accused Ukraine of "nuclear terrorism," but Ukraine insists it wasn't involved and instead suggested Russia was responsible - though it's unclear why Russia would strike a nuclear plant it controls. Ecuador stormed the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest Jorge Glas, a former Ecuadorian vice president who took refuge in the compound in December to avoid a prison sentence for corruption. Mexico was offended by the affront and promptly cut diplomatic ties with Ecuador. NYT analysts pointed out that Ecuadorian president Daniel Noboa likely calculated that arresting Glas would boost his sagging approval ratings ahead of an election next year.
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