Venezuela earthquake, Lebanon tensions and China-Taiwan competition

Off Leash update 25 June 2026

VENEZUELA •Two strong "doublet" earthquakes struck Venezuela yesterday, killing at least 32 and injuring more than 700. •USGS models suggest casualties will rise far higher and could well exceed 10,000 or more. The quake struck on a public holiday when many Venezuelans were at home, and many Venezuelan homes are shoddily built and prone to collapse. Even Caracas's main airport - which was not shoddily built - sustained such extensive damage that it was forced to close. •Interim President Delcy Rodriguez declared a state of emergency and called on medical workers to care for survivors.

LEBANON •Israel said its forces have trapped dozens of Hezbollah militants inside an encircled tunnel complex under the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon. The militants are staying put inside: they're likely hoping that U.S. pressure will force Israel to stand down before they run out of food and water underground. •The NYT pointed out similarities to a standoff between Israeli forces and Hamas militants in Gaza last year, in which hundreds of Hamas fighters were trapped in tunnels under Israeli-controlled terrain as a ceasefire came into effect. Israel denied the militants' request for safe passage and demanded their unconditional surrender instead. Many surrendered or were killed. •Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon held a fifth round of U.S.-mediated ambassador-level talks in Washington, DC. They reportedly discussed a U.S.-backed "pilot" in which Israel would cede some of the southern Lebanese territory it occupied during its war with Hezbollah to pre-vetted Lebanese army units to control. •The U.S. is backing the idea because it would help satisfy a condition of the U.S.-Iran MoU requiring Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. [However, the plan would let Israel keep a military presence in a border buffer zone, and Iran might consider that a violation of its conditions.]

CHINA •China's newest and largest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday as a warning to the self-governing island, which had just launched a five-day exercise to practice defense against a Chinese invasion. •The provocative transit drew rebuke not only from Taiwan, but also from France, Germany, and the UK, who united to issue a rare joint statement condemning Chinese activity around Taiwan. [The statement was referring to Chinese activity around Taiwan in general and didn't specifically mention the Fujian's transit the day before.] •Separately, LineShine, a Chinese supercomputer, was anointed the world's most powerful supercomputer in the biannual TOP500 ranking, displacing HP's El Capitan. LineShine also had the greatest power consumption of the 500 supercomputers in the ranking.