Iran-Israel exchanges dominate security outlook as Iraqi militias threaten U.S. presence

Off Leash update 16 June

COMING UP THIS WEEK •Canada's new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is hosting the 51st G7 summit today and tomorrow. •The biennial Paris Airshow opens today and runs through Thursday. Four Israeli firms - Elbit Systems, Rafael, IAI and Uvision - refused France's order to remove offensive weapons from their stands, and show organizers kicked them out. •Game 5 of the NBA Finals takes place tonight, followed by Game 6 on Thursday and Game 7 (if needed) on Sunday. The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder are tied at two games each; the first to four wins. •Thursday is a U.S. holiday for Juneteenth. •Thursday is also the latest deadline for TikTok's Chinese parent company, Bytedance, to sell the short-video app's U.S. operations to a new owner or face a shutdown, but Pres. Trump may grant Bytedance yet another extension.

COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,503/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,645/ton •Gold: $3,386/toz - up on geopolitical uncertainty over Iran-Israel fighting •Lead: $1,991/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.74/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $71.26/barrel - spiked over the weekend due to Iran-Israel fighting, but now down from weekend highs on reports that Iran wants a truce •Zinc: $2,623/ton

IRAN •Iran and Israel continued to exchange missile strikes over the weekend and into today. Iran has reported 224 deaths from Israeli strikes, and Israel says Iran's strikes have killed 24 since Friday. •The International Atomic Energy Agency - the UN's nuclear agency - confirmed from satellite imagery that Israel's first barrage Friday destroyed Iran's above-ground nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz. Iran hides additional undisclosed enrichment operations underground where satellite photos can't see. •Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel's strikes are being "fully co-ordinated" with the U.S., but that seems to be the extent of U.S. involvement for now. Pres. Trump said the U.S. "could get involved" further in the future, but he seemed optimistic that that won't be necessary because the situation "is going to get resolved." •Russia's Pres. Putin has offered to mediate between Israel and Iran, and there are rumors that Iran is ready to end the fighting.

IRAQ •Long War Journal pointed out that Iran-backed militias in Iraq have issued vague threats towards the U.S. and Israel, but haven't actually joined Iran's strikes on Israel and are directing their rhetorical ire at the U.S. instead. •One of the militias, Kataib Hezbollah, issued a statement yesterday indicating it would leave it to Iran to "bravely and steadfastly confront the Zionist aggression" [meaning Israel] while it focuses instead on "monitoring the movements of the American enemy’s military in the region." •Another Iran-backed U.S.-designated terrorist group in Iraq, Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, also focused its anger on the U.S. instead of Israel and called for U.S. forces to "be completely expelled from all Iraqi lands and airspace." •There have been at least two reports of attempted drone attacks on U.S. facilities in Iraq - one on Ain al Assad airbase in western Iraq, and another near the U.S. mission in Erbil. Neither attempt was claimed yet.

U.S. TRAVEL BAN •The U.S. State Department said it identified 36 more "countries of concern" that are being considered for full or partial visa bans - in addition to the 12 full and seven partial visa bans announced earlier this month. •The 36 additional countries have 60 days to act to avoid a ban by lowering high overstay rates, resolving security issues, or addressing other U.S. grievances with their citizens' travel patterns.