U.S.-Iran talks, DRC diplomacy and tariff negotiations shape the week ahead

Off Leash update 8 April 2025

COMING UP THIS WEEK •Qatar is set to mediate DRC-M23 peace talks starting tomorrow - if neither side walks away before then. •U.S. inflation data for March will be published on Thursday. Economists expect slow price growth for March, but anticipate a sharp rise in inflation this month once new tariffs are passed through to consumers. •Golf's Masters Tournament runs Thursday through Sunday at Augusta National. •U.S.-Iran talks will resume Saturday (see below for more). •Next weekend will see presidential elections in Gabon on Saturday and Ecuador (a run-off) on Sunday. •Beijing will host the world's first half marathon featuring humanoid robot runners - in addition to real humans - on Sunday. •Sunday is also the date of the annual University Boat Race between Oxford and Cambridge. To paraphrase a commentator for the 1949 race, I don't know who will win but it's either Oxford or Cambridge.

COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,371/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $28,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,700/ton •Copper: $8,732/ton •Gold: $3,006/toz - slightly off record highs of ~$3,120/toz •Lead: $1,870/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.64/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.94/barrel •Zinc: $2,614/ton

IRAN •In an unexpected development, Pres. Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran will engage in direct* nuclear talks starting Saturday in Oman. •*Iran confirmed that it will participate in talks with the U.S. starting Saturday, but said the first round will be conducted indirectly via mediators, with direct talks to follow if this round goes well. [Ayatollah Khamenei has ruled out direct talks with the U.S. while Trump's "maximum pressure" policy is in place. ] •Trump threatened that Iran would be "in great danger" if the talks fail. They could well fail if U.S. negotiators make heavy-handed demands that a weakened and insecure Iran would feel compelled to reject - such as ordering Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear programs. •Separately, The Washington Post reported that Iranian tried to hire a Georgian drug trafficker to assassinate Rabbi Shneor Segal, the Chief Rabbi of Baku's Ashkenazi community, in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani security services thwarted the hit in January.

TRADE •Pres. Trump told reporters that his new reciprocal tariffs are simultaneously permanent and open to negotiation - "because there are things that we need beyond tariffs." •So far, only China (reciprocal tariff rate: 34%) and Canada (25%) have retaliated to U.S. reciprocal tariffs with new levies of their own. •The European Union (20%) is reportedly considering retaliating with a 25% tariff on a limited set of goods initially, but the bloc has also offered to completely remove tariffs on some products if the U.S. does the same. Ultimately, European officials suggest they hope to find a compromise to revert to lower tariffs, but they've threatened to expand the range of goods subject to tariffs if compromise proves elusive. •Most countries targeted with new reciprocal tariffs have resisted retaliating and instead plan to either offer concessions or try to negotiate. •Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu rushed back to the White House for talks on both stalled hostage negotiations and tariff relief. Netanyahu pledged to eliminate Israel's trade surplus with the U.S. by buying more U.S. goods and asked Trump to lift the tariff he imposed on Israel (17%) in return. Trump demurred, citing the $4 billion in annual aid the U.S. gives Israel - "that's a lot." •The Prime Minister of Japan (24%), Ishiba Shigeru, said he would also visit the White House soon to plea for tariff relief. •Vietnam (46%) reportedly offered to remove all tariffs on U.S. goods if the U.S. returns the favor.

1/