U.S.–China Measures, Gaza Developments and Russian Leadership Changes

Off Leash Update 15 May China •The U.S. slapped tariffs on cheap Chinese electronics - including electric vehicles (EVs), solar equipment and batteries - to ensure that domestic production can compete with "unfairly under-priced" Chinese goods in an election year. The tariff rate for inexpensive (but high quality) Chinese EVs like BYD's will quadruple to 100%. And China will probably retaliate. •The Biden administration also ordered a Chinese-linked cryptocurrency mining operation conspicuously located near a U.S. Air Force base that operates nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles to shut down within 90 days and sell the land it was working from within 120 days over surveillance risks. •Concerns over the Chinese crypto operation are probably well founded: Microsoft had gone out of its way to warn counterespionnage officials that the operation could allow China to "pursue full-spectrum intelligence collection operations." •Separately, the UK charged three men accused of spying for Hong Kong on Monday, and yesterday its Foreign Office summoned the Chinese ambassador to discuss the arrest and a "recent pattern of behaviour directed by China against the UK, including cyber-attacks, reports of espionage links and the issuing of bounties" (China runs Hong Kong as a special administrative region). •Russia announced that Pres. Putin will visit China this Thursday and Friday. Under their "no limits" friendship, Russia provides cheap energy to China, and China supports (or at least doesn't oppose) Russia's war in Ukraine. The Economist pointed out that Pres. Xi has met (either virtually or one-on-one in person) with Putin over 40 times since 2013 - which is more than twice as many meetings as he's held with leaders of any other country in that time. Gaza •The UN switched to a new, more conservative system for reporting casualties in Gaza, and it resulted in a near-halving of reported deaths of women and children: from 24,000 to 12,756. That's not because the UN confirmed the rest were still alive, though; it's just waiting until more information emerges from the fog of war before it confirms the remaining ~10,000 dead. •The U.S. told Congress it will send Israel another $1 billion in arms - including $700 million of tank rounds, $500 million of tactical vehicles, and $60 million of mortar rounds. It's the first planned weapons transfer to Israel since a shipment of bigger arms was put on hold last week over Israel's planned operations in Rafah (the shipment that will proceed is of smaller arms than the one that was paused). •Meanwhile, right-wing Israeli protesters in the West Bank disrupted Palestinian aid shipments heading to Gaza, ransacking several trucks and setting fire to at least one of them. Other drivers carrying much-needed aid to Gaza said they feared for their safety while carrying out deliveries. Russia •Russia arrested a second senior defense official on bribery charges: Lt. Gen. Yury Kuznetsov - who heads the Defense Ministry's main personnel directorate - is accused of accepting an "exceptionally large bribe" when he was in charge of the military General Staff's directorate responsible for preserving state secrets. His bribes apparently didn't stay secret. •Kuznetsov's was the second big ousting in Putin's defense leadership this week, after Defense Secretary Shoigu's demotion. Shoigu had a much softer landing and will enjoy a cushy new gig on the National Security Council, but Kremlin insiders leaked that Putin privately upbraided him for the military's failures in Ukraine under his command. Ukraine •SecState Blinken is on a surprise visit to Kyiv and met Pres. Zelensky yesterday to reassure him of continued U.S. support after a delay in passing the latest military aid package weakened Ukrainian defenses and confidence. •Zelensky pleaded with Blinken for more air defenses - "two Patriots for Kharkiv" - to help stop Russian advances in the north.