Israel-Iran tensions, Qatar mediation, Venezuela sanctions and U.S.-China measures

Off Leash Update 18 April

Israel and Iran •According to NYT interviews after the fact, Israel didn't expect its April 1 strike on an Iranian embassy complex in Damascus to lead to the escalation that unfolded from it, and didn't even warn the U.S. about it until moments before it happened. •That now seems like a severe miscalculation: Israel failed to recognize that Iran's decision-making - like Israel's own - is influenced by hardliners who will reliably demand retribution at least as severe as the offense it avenges. •Israel's allies are urging it in the other direction: UK Foreign Secretary (and ex-PM) David Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annelena Baerbock both visited Israel to encourage a diplomatic response to Iran's weekend strikes instead of a military one. •PM Netanyahu seemed unmoved by the overtures: both Cameron and Baerbock assessed that Israel still intends to retaliate militarily, and after the meetings Netanyahu reasserted that Israel would prioritize its own interests and "do everything necessary to defend itself." •That said, the Israeli response may be limited. Israel's Arab neighbors say Israel has signalled it will restrict its retaliation to striking additional Iran-linked facilities in Syria, and pledged its response to Iran wouldn't endanger its allies' security. •Some Iran-linked bases in Syria have already evacuated personnel in anticipation of another strike there; others are operating only during the day (Israel usually strikes at night). Gaza •Qatar said it is undergoing a "complete re-evaluation of its role" mediating between Israel and Hamas after facing "exploitation and abuse" from unnamed "politicians who are trying to conduct election campaigns by slighting the State of Qatar." •PM Netanyahu is probably one of the anonymous detractors Qatar was complaining about: he has frequently criticized Qatar's mediation, refused to consider its negotiation recommendations, and threatened to ban its state news organization, Al Jazeera. Venezuela •Quiet talks between the U.S. and Venezuela over extending Venezuela's temporary sanctions relief broke down, and the U.S. allowed a six-month oil sales license to expire at midnight this morning. •The license had been granted in exchange for a commitment from Pres. Maduro to hold free and fair elections this year, but he broke that commitment by continuing to crack down on the opposition and scuppering their chances against him in July's election. Myanmar •Myanmar's junta moved deposed opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from prison to an undisclosed location in the capital. •They cited concerns about her safety in a heat wave roasting the prison, but the rest of Naypyidaw is just as hot and they're probably not hosting her in an air-conditioned suite. •It's more likely that the junta is getting worried about the alliance of rebel groups threatening their regime and wants to make sure they hold onto their highest-value prisoner. China •Pres. Biden plans to announce a tripling in tariffs for Chinese steel imports, which are currently set at 7.5%. •Chinese steel represents only 0.6% of U.S. demand, so higher tariffs shouldn't raise U.S. consumer prices much - the increase is more of a political gambit to win voters in steel towns like the one in Pennsylvania where Biden will make his announcement. •Separately, a congressional committee accused China of complicity in the U.S. opioid crisis for offering tax rebates to manufacturers that produce fentanyl ingredients - as long as their products are sold abroad.