Off Leash Intel · loading
2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 2 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Recently united rebel groups are rapidly retaking territory from government forces and now control more than half of Myanmar.
Unverified development · updated through
Recently united rebel groups are rapidly retaking territory from government forces and now control more than half of Myanmar.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Myanmar rebel groups dossier
2 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Naypyidaw
The junta may be trying to retain control of a high-value prisoner as rebel groups threaten its rule, rather than acting primarily because of the heat.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 4/22 -The Philippines and the U.S. begin annual joint military exercises today, but this time the exercises take place far from Philippine territorial waters in a part of the central South China Sea claimed by China. Though international law allows the exercises to take place there, China will see them as a provocation. -Passover begins at sundown today and ends at sundown next Tuesday. North Macedonia votes for president on Wednesday. U.S. SecState Blinken will visit China this week with a warning to Beijing to stop Chinese companies from helping Russia make military hardware. -Commodity Prices Aluminum: $2,669/ton Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $14,200/ton Cobalt: $27,830/ton Copper: $9,876/ton Gold: $2,337/toz Lead: $2,219/ton Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.77/MMbtu WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $82.77/barrel Zinc: $2,852/ton -Iran and Israel Both Iran and Israel seem to be standing down after their tit-for-tat exchange of unprecedented direct strikes last week. Iran downplayed Israel's drone strike on Friday and seems content to let it be the last shot in this volley. Israel's Friday strike hit a defensive battery near some of Iran's most important nuclear infrastructure. Western officials said Israel's objective was to show that it could penetrate Iranian defenses undetected - and it apparently did on Friday. Some Israeli media reports suggest Israel used a supersonic "Rampage" missile in that final strike on Friday. Neither Israel nor Iran are confirming those reports: Iranian officials are happy to let the public believe the foreign minister's comment that the weapons deployed agaisnt Isfahan were "like toys our children play with" rather than a high-tech, 1,250 lb (567 kg) missile. Separately, Iraq's pro-Iran Popular Mobilisation Forces accused the U.S. of striking one of its bases near Baghdad, killing one militant -Gaza The U.S. is reportedly planning to slap sanctions on the Israel Defence Forces' Netzah Yehuda Battalion for alleged human rights violations it committted in the West Bank. PM Netanyahu vowed to "fight" the sanctions, which would suspend U.S. funding and training for the unit. Israel's head of military intelligence, Aharon Haliva, became the first senior official to resign over the failure to foresee and prevent Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks. The attacks happened over six months ago, but as protests against PM Netanyahu's handling of the war grow, critics want heads to roll. Ukraine -Sadly after much delay and politicking, the U.S. House approved a long-stalled $95 billion foreign aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Ukraine celebrated the news: $61 billion of the total is earmarked for it, including $14 billion for weapons. The Kremlin warned that the bill's passage would "further ruin" Ukraine. -Venezuela Saturday was the deadline for swapping candidates on the ballot for Venezuela's July presidential election. The opposition had hoped to put its unity leader, Maria Corina Machado, on the ballot, but she's still barred from running under a politically-motivated technicality, so all 10 parties in the main opposition coalition aligned behind a relatively unknown former diplomat, Edmundo González, as their candidate. -Myanmar Recently-united rebel groups are rapidly retaking territory from government forces in Myanmar. Rebels now control over half the country. China The Maldives' pro-China ruling People's National Congress (PNC) party won a decisive victory in this weekend's parliamentary elections, with enough seats to secure an outright majority. The PNC's leader, incumbent president Muizzu, steered the country closer to China but has been restrained by a pro-India party's control of the legislature. Now that the PNC controls the legislature too, we'll likely see the Maldives pivot more sharply towards China. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash Update 18 April Israel and Iran •According to NYT interviews after the fact, Israel didn't expect its April 1 strike on an Iranian embassy complex in Damascus to lead to the escalation that unfolded from it, and didn't even warn the U.S. about it until moments before it happened. •That now seems like a severe miscalculation: Israel failed to recognize that Iran's decision-making - like Israel's own - is influenced by hardliners who will reliably demand retribution at least as severe as the offense it avenges. •Israel's allies are urging it in the other direction: UK Foreign Secretary (and ex-PM) David Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annelena Baerbock both visited Israel to encourage a diplomatic response to Iran's weekend strikes instead of a military one. •PM Netanyahu seemed unmoved by the overtures: both Cameron and Baerbock assessed that Israel still intends to retaliate militarily, and after the meetings Netanyahu reasserted that Israel would prioritize its own interests and "do everything necessary to defend itself." •That said, the Israeli response may be limited. Israel's Arab neighbors say Israel has signalled it will restrict its retaliation to striking additional Iran-linked facilities in Syria, and pledged its response to Iran wouldn't endanger its allies' security. •Some Iran-linked bases in Syria have already evacuated personnel in anticipation of another strike there; others are operating only during the day (Israel usually strikes at night). Gaza •Qatar said it is undergoing a "complete re-evaluation of its role" mediating between Israel and Hamas after facing "exploitation and abuse" from unnamed "politicians who are trying to conduct election campaigns by slighting the State of Qatar." •PM Netanyahu is probably one of the anonymous detractors Qatar was complaining about: he has frequently criticized Qatar's mediation, refused to consider its negotiation recommendations, and threatened to ban its state news organization, Al Jazeera. Venezuela •Quiet talks between the U.S. and Venezuela over extending Venezuela's temporary sanctions relief broke down, and the U.S. allowed a six-month oil sales license to expire at midnight this morning. •The license had been granted in exchange for a commitment from Pres. Maduro to hold free and fair elections this year, but he broke that commitment by continuing to crack down on the opposition and scuppering their chances against him in July's election. Myanmar •Myanmar's junta moved deposed opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from prison to an undisclosed location in the capital. •They cited concerns about her safety in a heat wave roasting the prison, but the rest of Naypyidaw is just as hot and they're probably not hosting her in an air-conditioned suite. •It's more likely that the junta is getting worried about the alliance of rebel groups threatening their regime and wants to make sure they hold onto their highest-value prisoner. China •Pres. Biden plans to announce a tripling in tariffs for Chinese steel imports, which are currently set at 7.5%. •Chinese steel represents only 0.6% of U.S. demand, so higher tariffs shouldn't raise U.S. consumer prices much - the increase is more of a political gambit to win voters in steel towns like the one in Pennsylvania where Biden will make his announcement. •Separately, a congressional committee accused China of complicity in the U.S. opioid crisis for offering tax rebates to manufacturers that produce fentanyl ingredients - as long as their products are sold abroad.
Open source report