Hormuz draft advances amid shipping attacks, Kyiv barrage and armed clashes in western Libya

Off Leash update 5 August 2026

IRAN •Pres. Trump said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic could come as soon as today. •This would not be a U.S.-Iran deal. Rather, it would be a deal Iran and Oman have been negotiating with U.S. input through Qatari mediators. The U.S. is likely using the leverage of its own blockade of the Strait to demand that Iran drop its plans to charge tolls or fees for passage. •The current draft thus proposes a 60-day period in which Iran controls inbound traffic to the Persian Gulf while Oman controls outbound traffic, with neither charging transiting ships for passage. •During the first 30 days, Iran would lead an effort to clear the middle lane of the mines it laid, and after that lane is clear, Iran and Oman would jointly manage it on terms still to be decided - which could still involve fees. •Iran's leadership has reportedly agreed to the current proposal, which gives Iran more control over Hormuz than it had before the war. •Despite ongoing talks, Iran continues to menace commercial vessels daring to defy its orders and use the Omani route through the Strait of Hormuz. It struck the Greek-owned cargo ship Minoan Pioneer on Monday, and another cargo carrier yesterday.

YEMEN •Iran's Houthi proxies in Yemen aren't done exercising their hold on shipping in the Red Sea, either. Earlier today, they claimed to have targeted a Saudi oil tanker, the Wafa, with ballistic missiles near the port of Yanbu. They were also likely responsible for sinking an Indian-flagged commercial vessel with a boat drone in the Red Sea yesterday.

IRAQ •Meanwhile, new data from the Rudaq Media Network concluded that Iran and its proxies have launched 966 attacks on Iraq's northern Kurdistan Region since the Iran war began on Feb. 28. •Anger over those attacks - and over U.S. / Saudi strikes retaliating for attacks that Iran-linked militias launched from Iraq - adds new impetus for the Iraqi government in Baghdad to rein in the Shia militias inside its borders. •Baghdad will especially have to step up if - as rumored - the U.S. starts to draw down its forces in Kurdistan.

UKRAINE •Ukraine struggled to intercept a fresh barrage of drones and missiles that Russia fired at Kyiv early this morning, intercepting 98 of the 115 incoming drones but none of the 28 missiles (including 24 ballistic missiles). At least 17 people were killed, making it one of the deadliest attacks on Kyiv yet. •Pres. Zelensky blamed allies for their "unwillingness" to send interceptors that "could have saved lives," and called for more urgency delivering defenses.

INDIA •Prime Minister Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost a special election for a seat in Bihar that it had solidly held for 30 years, raising speculation that the Cockroach Janta Party protesters who forced Modi's education minister to resign last month aren't the only Indians dissatisfied with Modi and the BJP. •Modi must call the next general election by April 2029. He'll want to address the rising wave of discontent with his government well before then.

LIBYA •Several of Libya's many armed factions engaged in a new wave of clashes in the western cities of Sorman and Zawiya yesterday, before the Government of National Unity's (GNU's) "conflict resolution" force - the 52nd Infantry Brigade - intervened to impose peace. •The melee facilitated a prison break from Sorman, raising security concerns for an area with one of Libya's largest oil refineries and a key export terminal. •The episode also highlighted the GNU's weak control over fractious tribal leaders and armed factions. While the 52nd Brigade was successful in quelling this skirmish, it's a small force that can't remain effective if spread too thin; plus, its intervention did nothing to resolve the underlying disputes that sparked yesterday's clashes.