U.S.–Iran framework, Israeli posture and Ukraine diplomacy

Off Leash update 16 June 2026

IRAN •Vice President Vance revealed that he, Pres. Trump, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf have already e-signed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) agreed to over the weekend. They still plan to sign the real thing on Friday in Geneva before kicking off mediated talks about the next phase of the deal, which is the 60-day period for finalizing a more detailed final agreement including limits on Iran's nuclear programs. •We still don't know what exactly is in the 14-point MoU. That worries some U.S. officials, including Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who said he is "somewhat concerned that Iran's view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming." Graham called for the release of the MoU's full text. •U.S. intelligence officials are similarly concerned that Iran's leaders won't be as agreeable in the thornier next phase of negotiations as they were in the course of negotiating this (fairly toothless) MoU. Their misgivings stem from intelligence showing that Iranian officials speak much more critically about the deal and their obligations under it when they discuss it amongst themselves than they do in front of mediators or media.

ISRAEL •Even if U.S.-Iran negotiations on a final deal go smoothly, there's a risk that Israel could scupper the truce if it fails to comply with what Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says is a condition of Iran's agreement to a deal: Israel's full withdrawal from Lebanon, including the south. •Yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu defiantly vowed to keep forces in southern Lebanon "for as long as necessary." •Netanyahu is stuck in a quandary of his own making. He staked his political future on a hardline security policy focused on confronting Iran, and is now being asked by his country's only real ally - the U.S. - to back down, leaving Iran's regime in an arguably stronger position than it was pre-war. •He seems to be gambling that Iran will be willing to overlook a continued Israeli presence in Lebanon and won't scrap the U.S. peace deal over it. But he also seems to have calculated that the peace deal wouldn't survive an escalation in Israeli strikes on Iran and its proxies. •Netanyahu reportedly called off what Maj. Gen. Omer Tischler called a "broad strike sortie" on hundreds of Iranian targets last week - just one hour before the jets were due to take off, and after Netanyahu's tense phone call with Pres. Trump, in which Trump warned him against escalation.

UKRAINE •G7 leaders met for a working session on Ukraine yesterday. Pres. Trump expressed hope that "maybe we could do something" about the war during the session, but the summit achieved no breakthroughs. •Pres. Zelensky, who also attended the G7 meeting, claimed that he proposed peace talks with Russia but Pres. Putin was "not ready." •Separately, the European Union (EU) formally launched the first stage of accession negotiations with Ukraine. •The process was delayed for two years because of former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's opposition to Ukrainian accession. •Orban's successor, Peter Magyar, still has concerns about how Kyiv treats its ethnic Hungarian minority, but he gave the green light for accession talks to proceed in exchange for Ukraine's commitment to strengthen ethnic Hungarians' rights. •Hungary's Magyar suggested it could take over a decade for Ukraine to achieve full EU member status. That's likely an overestimate, but - given glacial EU bureaucracy - it seems more realistic than the EU's hyperambitious target of welcoming Ukraine into the bloc as early as 2027.