Claims of Iran de-escalation coincide with competition over energy and critical minerals

Off Leash update 1 April

IRAN •Pres. Trump plans to address the nation on Iran this evening, and has hinted to reporters that he'll claim his objectives have been achieved and announce a winding down of the war in the next two to three weeks. •Iran's leaders may be skeptical of agreeing to a truce - especially one pitched on April Fool's Day. •For one thing, Trump's stated goal in both brief wars on Iran in the past year - ensuring that Iran will never have a nuclear bomb - still hasn't been conclusively achieved. Iran's 400 kg of enriched uranium is still at large, and its regime hasn't committed to abandoning its nuclear ambitions. If anything, this war may have hardened them. •Nonetheless, Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian seemed cautiously open to a truce, as long as it came with security guarantees. That part will need to be fleshed out in talks. •Israel seems ready to end the war, too. The Israel Defense Forces estimated yesterday that all of its "critical" targets - i.e., those directly linked to Iran's missile programs that present an immediate threat - and "essential" targets - essential military-industrial sites that present a slightly less imminent threat - will be destroyed by today. •Americans will be glad to see the war end and fuel prices retreat. Two-thirds of respondents to a Reuters / Ipsos poll said they supported ending the war quickly, even if Trump's shifting goals for it are unmet.

CHINA •As Trump vacillates on how the war might end, China is trying to step in as a peacemaker with a clearer, five-point peace plan that it pitched yesterday with Pakistan. •The Chinese-Pakistani plan calls for an immediate end to hostilities and strikes on infrastructure, a resumption of "normal passage" through the Strait of Hormuz, and "peace talks as soon as possible." •Analysts pointed out that this plan has striking parallels with the 12-point plan China proposed for ending the war in Ukraine in 2023. •That push fizzled out after Xi Jinping declined to stake his political capital meddling in a foreign crisis. It's unclear whether he has any more appetite for intervention now.

CUBA •The Anatoly Kolodkin, a U.S.-sanctioned Russian tanker, delivered fuel to Cuba yesterday after securing Pres. Trump's approval to sail through his energy blockade of the island. •This shipment will last Cuba 3-4 weeks, and it may be the first of several: the White House said it would evaluate whether to allow other fuel deliveries to Cuba on a "case-by-case basis." •That's a stark reversal from Trump's proclamation on Truth Social in January that "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA — ZERO!" Trump said he relented out of humanitarian concern for fuel-starved Cubans, but analysts suggested he lost interest in picking a fight with Cuba while his attention is focused on Iran.

IRAQ •American journalist Shelley Kittleson was kidnapped in Baghdad yesterday, and analysts are worried that Iran-linked militias targeted her over the U.S. war in Iran. Details are still hazy.

DRC •U.S. firm Virtus Metals finalized its $30 million acquisition of cobalt producer Chemaf - which owns DRC's massive Mutoshi copper-cobalt project - on Friday, thanks in part to U.S. government lobbying driven by a desire to secure non-Chinese sources of critical minerals. •That will make Virtus the largest non-Chinese cobalt miner in DRC, but it faces major financial and operating challenges - including a $1 billion debt burden. Virtus committed to raising $720 million to invest in its new asset, including $250-300 million of capex to finish long-stalled upgrades. •DRC is still actively courting Chinese investment, too. Last week, it signed a new mineral cooperation pact with Beijing that secured China's commitment to share geological data and promote more local processing of raw materials in DRC. •A Congo-focused analyst observed: "The DRC is clearly attempting to hedge its bets."