Election disputes, U.S.-China diplomacy and an uncertain battlefield claim in Sudan

Off Leash update 27 Oct COMING UP THIS WEEK •Tanzania votes for president on Wednesday, but the ruling CCM party has already assured victory for its incumbent, Samia Suluhu Hassan. More on that below. •Pres. Trump began a six-day trip to Southeast Asia yesterday, and already has a peace agreement - between Cambodia and Thailand - and several trade deals to show for it. •Trump will also attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit starting Friday in South Korea, but the conference itself is less of a focus than Trump's planned meeting on its sidelines with China's Pres. Xi on Thursday.

COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,859/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $115,274 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,963/ton •Ethereum: $4,168 •Gold: $4,045/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.30/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.86/barrel •Zinc: $3,026/ton

ARGENTINA •Pres. Milei's party won over 40% of the vote in yesterday's legislative poll, handing Milei a resounding mandate for his austerity programs. The results also give Milei numerical license to pursue tough reforms: he now has enough legislative support to block his vetoes from being overturned. TANZANIA •Tanzania's ruling CCM party has engaged in some brazen lawfare to ensure that Pres. Samia Suluhu Hassan, who inherited the presidency after her predecessor died in 2021, will win Wednesday's presidential election. •The two main opposition parties, Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo, were barred from running - lest voters see through CCM's questionable logic that the best way to tackle the country's festering economic challenges is to reelect the party that has failed to address them. •Instead of implementing policies to arrest rising poverty and inequality, Hassan's government has spent recent months arresting its critics. Dozens of opposition figures - and even outspoken CCM reformers - have disappeared, and authorities seem (justifiably) afraid of mass "Gen Z" protests around the election.

IVORY COAST •Early results show that Ivory Coast's Pres. Alassane Ouattara won an unconstitutional fourth term on Saturday. •That's unsurprising, as Ouattara's government banned both of his serious rivals - as well as over 50 other would've-runs - from contesting the vote.

CHINA •The U.S. and China announced that they'd agreed to a framework for a trade deal, as well as what U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent called a "final deal on TikTok." •That's great timing: it gives Presidents Trump and Xi two big wins to trumpet when they meet on Thursday. •Bessent said the trade deal - which is not yet final - calls for China to pause its new rare earths export controls for a year. In return, Trump would presumably delay the 100% tariff escalation he'd threatened in response to Beijing's rare earths restrictions.

SUDAN •Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said it had seized the army's Sixth Division Headquarters in El Fasher, Darfur. •There are two conflicting narratives on the significance of the RSF's pronouncement. •The first - which the army and its backers would prefer to believe - is that the base was unoccupied at the time it was "captured" - and not worth defending anyway, since the army still solidly controls the main prize of the long-besieged city of El Fasher. •The second - which the RSF optimistically promotes - is that the fallen headquarters was the last major bastion of army control in western Sudan, so its capture will solidify the RSF's grip on western Darfur. That would also boost the odds of a long-term stalemate splitting Sudan in two, with an army-run east and an RSF-controlled west. •As always, reality surely lies somewhere between the extremes.

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