North Korean deployment claims, Middle East diplomacy, and Botswana’s political transition

Off Leash update 1 November

Happy All Saints Day

Ukraine •The Pentagon assessed that there are now 8,000 North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk region poised to cross into Ukraine. •Pres. Zelensky is frustrated that his allies have had "zero" response to the threat of North Korean boots on the ground. But he said this on South Korean TV, and may have intended it to entice South Korea to add support for Ukraine's side. •Meanwhile, U.S. diplomats are imploring their Chinese counterparts to talk North Korea into backing out of Ukraine. •That may work: U.S. analysts think China is already uncomfortable with North Korea - which has long depended on China - cozying up to Russia too, and wary that North Korea's involvement in Ukraine will draw the West into meddling in East Asian security concerns. Russia •A Russian court fined Google 20 undecillion rubles ($2.5 decillion) for removing 17 state-run propaganda channels from YouTube after Russia invaded Ukraine. •To put that number into perspective: oGoogle's fine: $2,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 oGlobal 2024 GDP forecast: $110,000,000,000,000 (1/23 quadrillionth Google's fine) o2023 Google net profit: $73,700,000,000 (1/33 quintillionth Google's fine) •For even more math fun, the fine doubles daily after the mid-2025 due date. •Given that it would take Google 33 quintillion years of profits to pay the fine at its starting level, Russia clearly doesn't expect payment any time soon: the penalty is effectively a ban on Google operations in Russia. Gaza •Several top U.S. officials are in Cairo pushing for a quick ceasefire agreement before next Tuesday's U.S. election, but Israel seems to want to wait to see who U.S. voters elect before agreeing to a deal. Hamas isn't in a rush either: it prefers to hold out for a permanent ceasefire rather than the temporary truces currently on the table. Iran •Two senior Iranian officials - IRGC deputy commander Gen. Ali Fadavi and the head of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's office - said Iran plans to respond to Israel's retaliatory strikes, renewing the tit-for-tat cycle. •Following Israel's strikes, initial remarks by Khamenei and Pres. Pezeshkian seemed to suggest Iran would let Israel have the last word. Iran may be reconsidering now that news has spread that Israel's strikes caused more damage than Iranian officials initially let on. Other News •The Botswana Democratic Party - which has governed the southern African country since independence in 1966 - lost its majority for the first time in a surprising electoral rebuke. •Voters blamed the ruling party for economic woes caused by a slowdown in the diamond market, but also criticized some party figures for mismanagement and corruption. •To his credit, Pres. Masisi quickly conceded defeat and promised to ensure a smooth transition to the opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change Party and its president-elect, Duma Boko.