Off Leash Intel · loading
2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 2 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
According to the Pentagon, an assessment that 8,000 North Korean troops were in Kursk and poised to cross into Ukraine.
Unverified development · updated through
According to the Pentagon, an assessment that 8,000 North Korean troops were in Kursk and poised to cross into Ukraine.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
North Korean troops dossier
2 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Ukraine
Intercepted battlefield calls indicated that Russia lacked sufficient commanders, ammunition, weapons and translators to integrate North Korean troops. An allocation of one translator and three Russian soldiers per 30 North Koreans.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 1 November Happy All Saints Day Ukraine •The Pentagon assessed that there are now 8,000 North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk region poised to cross into Ukraine. •Pres. Zelensky is frustrated that his allies have had "zero" response to the threat of North Korean boots on the ground. But he said this on South Korean TV, and may have intended it to entice South Korea to add support for Ukraine's side. •Meanwhile, U.S. diplomats are imploring their Chinese counterparts to talk North Korea into backing out of Ukraine. •That may work: U.S. analysts think China is already uncomfortable with North Korea - which has long depended on China - cozying up to Russia too, and wary that North Korea's involvement in Ukraine will draw the West into meddling in East Asian security concerns. Russia •A Russian court fined Google 20 undecillion rubles ($2.5 decillion) for removing 17 state-run propaganda channels from YouTube after Russia invaded Ukraine. •To put that number into perspective: oGoogle's fine: $2,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 oGlobal 2024 GDP forecast: $110,000,000,000,000 (1/23 quadrillionth Google's fine) o2023 Google net profit: $73,700,000,000 (1/33 quintillionth Google's fine) •For even more math fun, the fine doubles daily after the mid-2025 due date. •Given that it would take Google 33 quintillion years of profits to pay the fine at its starting level, Russia clearly doesn't expect payment any time soon: the penalty is effectively a ban on Google operations in Russia. Gaza •Several top U.S. officials are in Cairo pushing for a quick ceasefire agreement before next Tuesday's U.S. election, but Israel seems to want to wait to see who U.S. voters elect before agreeing to a deal. Hamas isn't in a rush either: it prefers to hold out for a permanent ceasefire rather than the temporary truces currently on the table. Iran •Two senior Iranian officials - IRGC deputy commander Gen. Ali Fadavi and the head of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's office - said Iran plans to respond to Israel's retaliatory strikes, renewing the tit-for-tat cycle. •Following Israel's strikes, initial remarks by Khamenei and Pres. Pezeshkian seemed to suggest Iran would let Israel have the last word. Iran may be reconsidering now that news has spread that Israel's strikes caused more damage than Iranian officials initially let on. Other News •The Botswana Democratic Party - which has governed the southern African country since independence in 1966 - lost its majority for the first time in a surprising electoral rebuke. •Voters blamed the ruling party for economic woes caused by a slowdown in the diamond market, but also criticized some party figures for mismanagement and corruption. •To his credit, Pres. Masisi quickly conceded defeat and promised to ensure a smooth transition to the opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change Party and its president-elect, Duma Boko.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 October Ukraine •The NYT wrote that Pres. Zelensky's failure to win Western support for his victory plan "could lead to a kind of success, allowing the president to show Ukrainians that he has done all he can and to prepare them for the possibility that Ukraine might have to make a deal." That's an interesting spin and could be Zelensky's second-best outcome for a plan that has failed to impress Western allies. •Separately, Ukraine's spies said they intercepted battlefield communications that suggested Russia is struggling to integrate its borrowed North Korean special forces troops. Russian soldiers on the hacked calls complained that they lacked enough commanders to lead the integrated units - or enough ammunition and weapons to arm the new recruits. •The intercepts also revealed that Russia has assigned one translator and three Russian soldiers for every 30 North Koreans joining the war; however, some frustrated calls complained that one translator isn't enough for 30 North Koreans. India •Canada's government escalated its charges that the Indian government was involved in the assassination of a Sikh activist on Canadian soil last year by explicitly accusing India's Minister of Home Affairs, Amit Shah, of orchestrating the hit. •Canada's accusation is especially serious given that Shah is a close ally of PM Modi and widely considered to be the second-most powerful figure in Modi's government. India hasn't responded yet. Iran •New satellite images from Planet Labs suggest that Israel's airstrikes on Iran over the weekend did more damage than Iran let on. Several struck key military sites, including three of the four sites where the IRGC produces missiles (the extent of the damage to each isn't yet clear). •Iran's leaders may have felt compelled to downplay the significance of Israel's assault to mask its defensive shortcomings and justify a tactical decision not to re-retaliate against a stronger enemy. Gaza •Israel and Qatari mediators are reportedly reviewing a proposal to open a month-long truce in exchange for the release of 11-14 hostages - including all remaining women and children in Hamas captivity. That's a slightly bolder proposal than the Egyptian plan currently on the table, but it still stops short of the permanent ceasefire Hamas is thought to be seeking. Libya •Austrian oil company OMV restarted its operations in the Sirte basin a couple weeks ahead of schedule. Libya's NOC - which has been pushing foreign oil firms to resume drilling - cheered the news. Guyana •Guyana's Pres. Ali announced a plan to give every ID-carrying adult citizen of the country a one-time $100,000 cash grant funded by proceeds from offshore oil sales. Guyana has enjoyed the world's fastest year-on-year GDP growth thanks to its oil proceeds. DRC •China's CMOC announced its third-quarter results, and they showed that cobalt production from the company's DRC mines had already surpassed its annual target of 60,000 to 70,000 tons by far: in just the first three quarters of 2024, CMOC produced nearly 85,000 tons of cobalt.
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