Situation report · May 28, 2024
Gaza incidents, North Korean launch failure and shifts in Russia and EU policy
Deadly events around Rafah, a failed North Korean satellite launch, potential Russian engagement with the Taliban and the EU’s planned early withdrawal of its military partnership mission from Niger.
Key assessment · Editor summary
The suggestion of Russian involvement in North Korea’s rocket program is explicitly analytical rather than established fact.Editor summary from the source update.
5-point executive summary
Executive summary
- 01
An Israeli strike targeting two Hamas militants near Rafah are linked to a fire that killed at least 45 displaced Palestinians; The UN Security Council planned a closed session on the incident.
- 02
Egyptian and Israeli personnel exchanged fire along the Egypt-Gaza border, with an Egyptian guard killed and witness accounts alleging he fired first after observing Israeli troops pursue Palestinians.
- 03
North Korea’s second attempted spy-satellite launch failed when its rocket exploded shortly after launch; Speculation that its new engine could indicate Russian assistance.
- 04
Russia is considering removing the Taliban from its terrorist list and potentially recognizing its government after inviting Taliban delegates to an economic forum.
- 05
The EU plans to end its military partnership mission in Niger in June 2024, 18 months before its scheduled expiration.
Source post
@realErikDPrince
Off Leash update 28 May
Gaza •Israel is facing heat for its strike in Rafah that successfully targeted two senior Hamas militants - but apparently also ignited a fire that killed at least 45 displaced Palestinians sheltering in a tented camp near the site of the strike. Israel blamed Hamas for hiding high-ranking leaders behind civilians. The UN Security Council will meet in a closed session today to discuss the incident. •Separately, Egyptian and Israeli soldiers exchanged fire on the Egypt-Gaza border yesterday. Egyptian eyewitnesses told Reuters an Egyptian guard fired at the Israeli troops first - after watching them chase and kill some Palestinians on the other side of the border. North Korea •North Korea attempted to launch a second spy satellite, but the rocket carrying it exploded shortly after launch. •The timing of the attempted launch was peculiar because it coincided with a trilateral meeting between China, Japan, and South Korea; and must have distracted from their summit. North Korea usually avoids inconveniencing China, its top ally. •Pyongyang blamed the rocket's failure on the new liquid oxygen-petroleum engine it employed, which analysts say suggests Russia may have supplied or advised North Korea (Russia is a global leader in liquid oxygen-fuel technologies). Afghanistan •A senior Russian diplomat told the state-run TASS news agency that his government is considering removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, and could then consider formally recognizing the Taliban government. •That would be the second of two recent moves to embrace the Taliban: the first was inviting Taliban delegates to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum early next month. •Russia doesn't have many friends these days, which is perhaps why it's willing to embrace unsavory company like the Taliban. Sahel •The EU announced that it would be following the U.S.'s example and ending its Military Partnership Mission in Niger early - rather than continuing to work with an uncooperative junta that is cozying up to Russia. The EU's mission was supposed to run through Dec. 2025; instead, it will wrap up at the end of June 2024. Other News •The government of Papua New Guinea belatedly ordered thousands of people to evacuate the path of the landslides that have already buried an estimated 2,000 people - and are still actively blanketing more terrain.
Intelligence events
6 developments, located and evidence-tagged
Briefing map
Mapped developments
5 mapped developments across 4 map positions; 1 text-only development is not plotted. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Rafah, Gaza Strip
Israeli strike near Rafah is linked to fatal camp fire
An Israeli strike killed two senior Hamas militants and apparently ignited a fire that killed at least 45 displaced Palestinians in a nearby tented camp. Israel accused Hamas of positioning leaders behind civilians and that the UN Security Council would discuss the incident in a closed session.
Approximate map position: regional centroid. This marker does not claim an exact event location.
1 supporting public source attached
Israeli strike near Rafah is linked to fatal camp fire
Rafah, Gaza Strip, Gaza Strip
31.417, 34.333 · Region centroid — approximate
An Israeli strike killed two senior Hamas militants and apparently ignited a fire that killed at least 45 displaced Palestinians in a nearby tented camp. Israel accused Hamas of positioning leaders behind civilians and that the UN Security Council would discuss the incident in a closed session.
Israel is facing heat for its strike in Rafah that successfully targeted two senior Hamas militants - but apparently also ignited a fire that killed at least 45 displaced Palestinians sheltering in a tented camp near the site of the strike.
Outside corroboration1
- SupportsUnited Nations
UN OCHA reported that an Israeli airstrike on a Rafah displacement site caused fire-related casualties, with Gaza’s health ministry reporting 45 deaths, while Israel said it targeted two senior Hamas officials.
Briefing index
People, places and event coverage
People & organizations
10- IsraelConducted the Rafah strike and participated in the border exchange
- HamasTarget of the Rafah strike and subject of Israel’s allegations
- EgyptParty to the exchange of fire on the Egypt-Gaza border
- UN Security Councilscheduled a closed discussion of the Rafah incident
- North KoreaConducted the failed spy-satellite launch
- RussiaPossible source of North Korean rocket assistance and government considering closer Taliban relations
- China, Japan and South KoreaParticipants in the trilateral summit coinciding with North Korea’s launch
- TalibanSubject of possible Russian delisting and recognition
- European UnionOperator of the military partnership mission scheduled to leave Niger
- Niger juntaGovernment whose relations with the EU have deteriorated
Places
5- Rafah, Gaza StripGaza Strip / Middle East
- Egypt-Gaza borderEgypt / Gaza Strip / Middle East
- North KoreaNorth Korea / East Asia
- Russia and AfghanistanRussia / Afghanistan / Eurasia
- NigerNiger / Sahel
Event coverage
6- Active conflict2 developments
- Strategic competition4 developments
Citations
International & OSINT sources
- [1]Hostilities in the Gaza Strip and Israel - Flash Update #171 - OCHA - Question of PalestineUnited Nations · Corroboration · supports
UN OCHA reported that an Israeli airstrike on a Rafah displacement site caused fire-related casualties, with Gaza’s health ministry reporting 45 deaths, while Israel said it targeted two senior Hamas officials.
Accessed Jul 25, 2026 - [2]North Korean rocket carrying its 2nd spy satellite explodes shortly after launchAssociated Press · Corroboration · supports
AP reported that North Korea’s rocket carrying its second spy satellite exploded shortly after liftoff and that Pyongyang linked the failure to a newly developed liquid oxygen-petroleum engine.
Accessed Jul 25, 2026 - [3]EUMPM Niger: Council decides not to extend the mandate of the missionEuropean Union · Corroboration · supports
The Council of the EU announced that the military partnership mission in Niger would not be extended beyond June 30, 2024, despite its originally agreed three-year duration.
Accessed Jul 25, 2026
The Off Leash Situation Report
The briefing, ready for the inbox
Subscribe to receive each editor-approved situation report after publication.