Russia’s Ukraine Offensive, U.S.–China Trade Friction and Gaza Planning Lead May 16 Update

Off Leash update May 16

Ukraine •Analysts are worried about Russia's rapid recent advances along multiple fronts in Ukraine - including two lines of attack in the north near Kharkiv. •The situation is dire enough that Pres. Zelensky postponed his upcoming foreign trips to focus on countering the incursions. •The NYT speculated that Russia's real goal in the north could be to draw Ukraine's forces away from other fronts to reinforce Kharkiv, leaving a thin front line that Russia can assault in another offensive next month. China •Presidents Putin and Xi began two days of meetings in Beijing by celebrating their countries' partnership as "one of the main stabilising factors on the international arena." •They're expected to discuss economic cooperation and the war in Ukraine - in particular, Putin hopes to find ways to expand China's supply of dual-use goods for his war (which Beijing justifies in the name of "safeguarding regional and global security and stability"). •Meanwhile, China vowed to retaliate against new U.S. tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs) and other novel technologies with "resolute measures" - perhaps including countertariffs, restrictions on tech exports, or boycotts of unrelated but important U.S. imports like soybeans. •China may also seek ways to evade the new tariffs. For example, Chinese EV maker BYD previously said it was considering opening new factories in Mexico to build cars for the Mexican market, and U.S. policymakers are concerned it - and other Chinese manufacturers - could use Mexican plants as a backdoor to reach the U.S. market without paying tariffs. U.S. Trade Representative Tai hinted that her office is contemplating additional penalties on tariff evaders. •Separately, China sent dozens of armed ships to block unarmed Filipino demonstrators from asserting their country's claim to the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. The protesters have the tacit support of their government in Manila, while Beijing hopes that by stymying their demonstration it can legitimize its claim to the atoll. Gaza •Yoav Gallant - Israel's defense minister and a perpetual thorn in PM Netanyahu's side - called on Netanyahu to present a "day-after" plan for running Gaza after the war ends. Netanyahu immediately rejected the idea of committing to a long-run plan while Hamas is still in power, calling it "detached from reality." •U.S. Central Command announced that it anchored the floating pier that will receive humanitarian aid for Gaza. Its first aid shipments - including a UK shipment of 8,400 temporary shelters - are already en route. Other News •Slovakia's PM Robert Fico survived an assassination attempt that appears to have been politically motivated. Fico began his political career in the Communist Party, but has drifted to the right over the course of his three terms as PM, and now has stronger ties with Hungary's PM Orban and Russia's Pres. Putin than some of his pro-European constituents are comfortable with.