Off Leash Intel · loading
43 developments across 29 briefings for this country.
Latest linked intelligence
The Houthis struck two Saudi tankers while allowing two Chinese-owned tankers carrying Saudi oil to transit Bab al-Mandeb. Enforcement of the announced blockade may be selective but uncertainty remains over how additional Chinese tankers loading at Yanbu will be treated.
Unverified development · updated through
The Houthis struck two Saudi tankers while allowing two Chinese-owned tankers carrying Saudi oil to transit Bab al-Mandeb. Enforcement of the announced blockade may be selective but uncertainty remains over how additional Chinese tankers loading at Yanbu will be treated.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Yemen dossier
33 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Red Sea
A UK Royal Navy destroyer intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile targeting a commercial vessel in the Red Sea and characterizes it as the first successful UK ship-launched air-defense interception of an adversary missile since the Gulf War.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
They struck two Saudi tankers yesterday, but allowed two Chinese-owned tankers carrying Saudi oil to pass through Bab al Mandeb - though those were loaded at Saudi's Yanbu port before the Houthis announced their blockade.
The Houthis struck two Saudi tankers while allowing two Chinese-owned tankers carrying Saudi oil to transit Bab al-Mandeb. Enforcement of the announced blockade may be selective but uncertainty remains over how additional Chinese tankers loading at Yanbu will be treated.
Open source reportU.S. SecState Rubio warned the Houthis against getting involved in their benefactor's war, but they're unlikely to heed his warning.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned the Houthis against joining their benefactor’s war; the group is unlikely to comply.
Open source reportYemen's Houthi rebels struck two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea yesterday, making good on their threats to enforce a "maritime embargo" on Saudi Arabia.
Houthi forces struck two Saudi oil tankers; to have turned back ten ships. Shipping data showed at least six vessels reversing course after the Houthis announced a blockade.
Open source reportAnalysts suggest that depiction is intended for the Houthi's domestic audience, who don't know that Saudi can evade the blockade by exporting from its western ports north through the Suez Canal.
Saudi Arabia could bypass the claimed blockade by using western ports and shipping north through the Suez Canal, and that Houthi messaging is aimed primarily at a domestic audience.
Open source reportEncouraged by Iran, Yemen's Houthi rebels announced a blockade on Saudi Arabian ships - or ships carrying Saudi exports - transiting through Bab al Mandeb.
Yemen’s Houthis, encouraged by Iran, announced a blockade against Saudi ships and vessels carrying Saudi exports through Bab al-Mandeb.
Open source reportThe Houthis recently reopened a long-frozen conflict with Saudi Arabia, and seem ready to join their sponsor's side in a regional war.
The Houthis recently reopened a previously frozen conflict with Saudi Arabia. Its assertion that the group appears ready to enter a wider regional war on Iran’s side is an assessment.
Open source reportIran called on its proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, to help ignite a regional conflict by closing the Bab al Mandeb maritime chokepoint if the U.S. strikes Iran's power grid.
The account reports that Iran called on the Houthis to close the maritime chokepoint if the United States attacks Iran’s electrical grid.
Open source reportYemen's Houthis readily heeded Saudi Arabia's call to arms and declared the "de-escalation phase" of their war over after four years of fragile peace.
The Houthis answered a Saudi call to arms and ended a four-year period of fragile de-escalation.
Open source reportIran sees its proxies' wars against Israel as an integrated part of its broader conflict. The extra dimensions that adds to truce talks will make it harder to reach a durable deal.
Iranian, Hezbollah and Houthi actions are components of one broader conflict with Israel and this structure will make a durable agreement harder to negotiate.
Open source reportIsrael and Iran returned to war for about 15 hours, until Pres. Trump pulled Prime Minister Netanyahu back from the brink with another tense phone call.
Israel and Iran fought for approximately 15 hours before pausing strikes after President Trump spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu. Iran and the Houthis fired at Israel and that Israeli operations continued in southern Lebanon. Details remain.
Open source reportThe Houthis also seem to be refraining from targeting Red Sea shipping, as they did from 2023 until a ceasefire in May 2025.
The Houthis are refraining from attacking Red Sea shipping. Competing interpretations: expectations of Saudi financial support versus frustration that could eventually end that restraint.
Open source reportYemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels joined their benefactor's war by resuming missile launches towards Israel for the first time since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran a month ago.
The Iran-backed Houthis launched a missile toward Israel for the first time since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began a month earlier, and that Israel intercepted it.
Open source reportBoth Saudi and the UAE seem keen to resolve their differences politely and behind closed doors rather than through proxies in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia is managing tensions carefully because the UAE supports the STC, and that both governments prefer to resolve their differences privately rather than through proxy escalation in Yemen.
Open source reportFollowing weeks of speculation, the Saudi Arabia-led coalition in Yemen formally warned Southern Transition Council (STC) separatists to withdraw from parts of Hadramaut province that they captured earlier this month or risk being "dealt with directly and immediately."
The Saudi-led coalition ordered Southern Transitional Council separatists to leave recently captured areas of Hadramaut and threatened immediate action. Apparent Saudi strikes on STC-linked positions, while noting that Saudi officials declined to comment.
Open source reportYemen's Houthi rebels warned that they would consider any Israeli presence in Somaliland - which lies across the Gulf of Aden from Houthi-controlled southern Yemen - to be "a military target for our armed forces."
The Houthis warned that any Israeli presence in Somaliland would be treated as a military target. The speaker separately speculates that Israel may be considering Somaliland as a base for operations against Houthi positions.
Open source reportThe Houthis plan to release 1,200 prisoners - including seven Saudis and 23 Sudanese - in exchange for the government freeing 1,700 Houthi prisoners.
The Houthis will release 1,200 prisoners, including seven Saudis and 23 Sudanese, in exchange for the government releasing 1,700 Houthi prisoners. The deal is mediated by the United Nations and Red Cross.
Open source reportSTC control of the south would mark a major change in the course of Yemen's long-running civil war. It would also increase the likelihood of Yemen ultimately re-fracturing into the two countries that comprised it before unification.
Sustained STC control of southern Yemen would significantly alter the civil war and make a return to separate northern and southern states more likely.
Open source reportThe UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) separatist coalition announced that it had captured not only Hadramout, but all eight of Yemen's southern governates - including the port of Aden.
The UAE-backed STC announced that it had captured Hadramout and all eight southern governorates, including Aden. The claim credible but acknowledges that it is unconfirmed and that Saudi-backed resistance may continue.
Open source reportPrime Minister Netanyahu warned of further Israeli action against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, and blamed Iran for backing both Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of additional action against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, while blaming Iran for supporting both groups.
Open source reportAnalysts say the already-hawkish Houthi military leadership is likely to nurture its extremist tendencies now that there will be fewer comparatively pragmatic voices around to advocate for moderation
An analyst assessment that the removal of comparatively pragmatic officials could strengthen extremist tendencies within the Houthi movement, particularly as Iran’s ability to support its proxies weakens.
Open source reportAn Israeli strike last Thursday killed Houthi prime minister Ahmed al Rahawi and several other senior Houthi bureaucrats, but the Houthis' military leadership - who really run the show - weren't part of the meeting
An Israeli strike killed Houthi prime minister Ahmed al-Rahawi and several senior bureaucrats. Houthi military leaders were not at the targeted meeting and subsequently vowed revenge.
Open source reportBritish Typhoon fighters joined U.S. jets for a joint operation against a Houthi drone factory near Sanaa.
British Typhoon fighters joined U.S. aircraft in an operation against a Houthi drone factory near Sanaa, marking the first cited UK participation in the renewed U.S. campaign under President Trump.
Open source reportMy guess is that we'll see the Houthis lob some sporadic, easily-interceptible missiles in Israel's direction... but won't see the dramatic escalation they've promised.
Despite public defiance from Houthi official Jamal Amer; The group is likely responding to Iranian pressure and U.S. strikes. He predicts sporadic missile launches toward Israel rather than a dramatic escalation.
Open source reportIran privately asked its Houthi proxies to dial back their attacks and nudged Oman to convey the same message to Houthi leaders.
Iran privately asked the Houthis to reduce attacks on Red Sea shipping and encouraged Oman to deliver a similar message after Trump threatened to hold Tehran responsible for future attacks.
Open source reportIran - which backs the Houthis - vowed to "respond decisively and destructively," but the Houthis' counterstrikes on U.S. ships in the region were easily intercepted.
Iran threatened a decisive response to U.S. action and claims Houthi counterstrikes against U.S. ships in the region were intercepted.
Open source reportTwo weeks after re-designating Yemen's Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, the U.S. carried out airstrikes on Houthi arsenals and air defenses.
U.S. forces struck Houthi arsenals and air defenses two weeks after redesignating the group as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.
Open source reportThe Houthis have also pledged to scale back their Red Sea attacks to focus on Israeli-linked ships, but - as I noted on Monday - many analysts are skeptical that they'd relinquish the lucrative business of selling safe passage guarantees
The Houthis pledged to focus attacks on Israeli-linked ships but relays skepticism that they would abandon an business involving payments for safe passage.
Open source reportYemen's Houthi rebels released the crew of the Galaxy Leader - a ship they hijacked at the beginning of their stranglehold on Red Sea shipping lanes in Nov. 2023 - citing "coordination with the Hamas movement."
The Houthis freed the crew of the Galaxy Leader on the fourth day of the Gaza ceasefire, citing coordination with Hamas.
Open source reportSome analysts - including at The Economist - think the Houthis may choose to continue their lucrative racket exploiting the shipping industry even after the war in Gaza ends.
The speaker and cited analysts question whether the Gaza ceasefire will lead the Houthis to end their maritime campaign, assessing that financial incentives could encourage continued pressure on commercial shipping.
Open source reportThe Houthis released a statement yesterday saying they would be "stopping sanctions" on (i.e., no longer targeting) non-Israel-aligned ships.
The Houthis announced they would stop targeting non-Israel-aligned ships and planned a further military statement. The group had already claimed its campaign was limited to Israel-aligned shipping.
Open source reportWe will strike hard at the Houthis... and decapitate their leadership – just as we did with Haniyeh, Sinwar, and Nasrallah in Tehran, Gaza, and Lebanon, we will do so in Hodeida and Sanaa.
Katz threatened strikes against Houthi leaders in Hodeida and Sanaa, comparing the proposed action with Israel’s operations against Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar and Hassan Nasrallah.
Open source reportRussia may be rewarding the Houthi leaders facilitating its recruitment with promises to send new weapons the Houthis can use to target Red Sea shipping.
According to U.S. Special Envoy Tim Lenderking, an assessment that Russia may reward Houthi leaders facilitating recruitment with weapons usable against Red Sea shipping.
Open source reportFinancial Times reported that Russia has recruited - and, in some cases, forced - hundreds of Yemenis to fight in its war against Ukraine.
A Financial Times report that Russia recruited—and in some cases forced—hundreds of Yemenis to fight in Ukraine. Some recruits lacked training, could not read their Russian-language contracts and were threatened into signing.
Open source reportYemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched drones and missiles at two U.S. destroyers - USS Stockdale and USS Spruance - in the Bab al Mandeb strait off the coast of Yemen... the destroyers intercepted all incoming projectiles and sustained no damage or injuries.
Houthi forces launched five ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and at least eight one-way attack drones at USS Stockdale and USS Spruance. The destroyers intercepted the incoming weapons without damage or casualties and disputes a Houthi claim that USS Abraham Lincoln was also attacked.
Open source reportthe WSJ reported that Russia has engaged in some perverse methods of its own by providing Yemen's Houthi rebels with satellite data to target their attacks on Red Sea shipping.
Russia provided satellite data that helped Houthi forces target Red Sea shipping. An analyst assessment that Moscow sought to generate instability and divert U.S. resources from Ukraine.
Open source reportU.S. B-2 Spirit bombers targeted five underground Houthi weapons facilities yesterday.
U.S. B-2 Spirit bombers attacked five underground Houthi weapons facilities in Yemen as part of an effort to reduce threats to Red Sea shipping.
Open source reportIran says its Houthi proxies in Yemen have agreed to a truce to let rescuers assess the Sounion oil tanker... However, the Houthis say they only agreed to allow a tugboat to come tow the ailing - and possibly leaking - Sounion away.
Iran described a truce allowing rescuers to assess the damaged tanker, while the Houthis said they had only permitted a tugboat to tow it. The tanker’s condition and environmental risk remained unresolved.
Open source reportThe Sounion tanker Yemen's Houthis set ablaze last week may be leaking some of the 1 million barrels of oil it was carrying.
The Sounion may be leaking some of its approximately one million barrels of oil after being set ablaze. Houthi threats and targeting have prevented salvage personnel from examining the tanker.
Open source reportYemen's Houthi rebels... claimed to have independently developed a hypersonic missile, the Hadim 2... but no indications that the missile was the solid-fuel hypersonic technology the Houthis claimed it to be.
The Houthis claimed to have used an independently developed Hadim 2 hypersonic missile against a cargo ship. The attempted strike missed; there was no indication the weapon used the claimed solid-fuel hypersonic technology. Development of such a weapon would probably require assistance from a technology partner, potentially Iran.
Open source reportYemen's Houthis used a "drone boat" - along with aerial drones and ballistic missiles - to attack a Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier, the Tutor. The Tutor's captain later reported that "the vessel is taking on water, and not under command of the crew" after a second impact.
The Houthis used an uncrewed surface vessel, aerial drones and ballistic missiles against the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned Tutor. The captain as reporting that the ship was taking on water and no longer under crew command after a second impact.
Open source reportYemen's Houthi rebels said they interrupted an "American-Israeli spy cell" after arresting around 12 UN personnel and staff of a U.S.-funded pro-democracy group, the National Democratic Institute.
The Houthis claimed to have disrupted an U.S.-Israeli spy network after detaining about 12 UN personnel and employees of the U.S.-funded National Democratic Institute.
Open source reportThe ship they struck was the Portuguese-flagged MSC Orion, and this was their longest-range confirmed strike yet: it occurred around 375 miles (600 km) off the coast of Yemen.
The Houthis conducted a drone strike against the Portuguese-flagged container ship MSC Orion about 375 miles off Yemen. Minor damage; the vessel continued its voyage.
Open source reportA UK Royal Navy destroyer downed a Houthi ballistic missile targeting a commercial ship in the Red Sea, marking the first time since the Gulf War that a UK ship-launched anti-air missile successfully intercepted an adversary's missile mid-air.
A UK Royal Navy destroyer intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile targeting a commercial vessel in the Red Sea and characterizes it as the first successful UK ship-launched air-defense interception of an adversary missile since the Gulf War.
Open source report