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23 developments across 17 briefings for this country.
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U.S. strikes hit an airport, a railway station, and bridges in Iran, followed by Iranian attacks on U.S. military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Syria.
Unverified development · updated through
U.S. strikes hit an airport, a railway station, and bridges in Iran, followed by Iranian attacks on U.S. military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Syria.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Oman dossier
7 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Oman
11 Yemeni detainees were transferred from Guantanamo Bay to Oman for resettlement, leaving 15 prisoners at the facility.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
U.S. airstrikes targeted infrastructure in Iran - including an airport, a train station, and several bridges - and Iran hit back at U.S. military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and (for the first known time) Syria.
U.S. strikes hit an airport, a railway station, and bridges in Iran, followed by Iranian attacks on U.S. military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Syria.
Open source reportAraghchi's diplomatic outreach suggests that moderates like him are seeking an off ramp even as hardliners escalate their aggressive rhetoric.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi communicated with counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Oman and called Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Munir. The outreach indicates Iranian moderates are seeking de-escalation.
Open source reportIran does not appear to be restricting transits through the Strait... Rather, shipping traffic seems constrained by the fact that vessels are avoiding the main central route through the Strait because of mines Iran laid in it.
Iran is not directly restricting transit and instead attributes reduced traffic to vessels avoiding a mined central route. Iran ordered ships onto a permission-based northern route, while some vessels use a southern route near Oman under U.S. Navy observation. The underlying routing and mine claims remain.
Open source reportKpler, a data firm, reported that 109 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz between Saturday and Monday. That's the most in a three-day period since the war began, but still far below the average daily pre-war rate of ~130 per day.
According to Kpler, a count of 109 ship transits between Saturday and Monday, described as the highest three-day total since the cited war began but still below a claimed prewar average of about 130 ships per day.
Open source reportExperts suggest around two million barrels of oil are leaking through the Strait per day, which is around one-seventh the pre-war volume that passed through daily but still a decent rate. That's perhaps why oil prices have remained lower than analysts thought they'd be after a prolonged blockade.
Unnamed experts estimating daily oil transit at about two million barrels, roughly one-seventh of the stated prewar volume; continued flows may help explain lower-than-expected prices.
Open source reportIran says the Strait of Hormuz is "completely closed" and claims it is actively targeting ships that try to defy its blockade. U.S. officials don't consider the Strait closed: Pres. Trump says U.S. vessels have helped tankers carrying a cumulative total of 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait.
Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed and that vessels attempting passage are being targeted. It contrasts this with a claim from President Trump that U.S. vessels helped tankers carrying a cumulative 100 million barrels of oil transit the strait.
Open source reportU.S. ships have quietly escorted around 70 commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz in the past three weeks. That's an approximate figure, since the U.S.-guided passages have been "dark," with transponders turned off, and probably hugging the Omani coast to stay as far as possible from Iranian fire.
U.S. ships quietly escorted roughly 70 commercial vessels through the strait over three weeks, with transponders disabled and routes near Oman. It compares the implied rate of about three vessels daily with a claimed prewar rate of 100.
Open source reportRubio drew a red line with a warning that a tolling system "would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible."
Iran and Oman were discussing a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz and attributes to Rubio a warning that such an arrangement would make a diplomatic agreement unfeasible.
Open source reportIn a second incident, an Indian-flagged (and Indian-crewed) vessel, the Haji Ali, sank off the coast of Oman after a suspected drone or missile attack.
The Indian-flagged and Indian-crewed Haji Ali sank after a suspected drone or missile strike. The crew evacuated safely but livestock being transported from Berbera to Sharjah did not survive.
Open source reportIranian troops seized a vessel operating as a "floating armory" - a storage ship for weapons that private security firms use to protect client vessels from piracy or other attacks - in the Gulf of Oman.
Hui Chuan is a vessel operating as a floating armory but says its cargo and client at the time of the seizure were unclear.
Open source reportIranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Oman yesterday to seek Muscat's help in setting up a new tolling system for the Strait.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Oman to seek Muscat’s assistance establishing a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz. Oman will probably decline.
Open source reportThe WSJ suggested that Trump may try to prove his claim that U.S. forces alone can reopen the strait by deploying around 2,200 Marines to seize several islands in the area
Trump may deploy approximately 2,200 Marines from Japan to seize several islands and establish bases for countering attacks on commercial shipping.
Open source reportThe European Union and Japan issued a joint statement expressing their "readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait [of Hormuz]"
The European Union and Japan expressed readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the strait, while officials indicated that this did not include military support sought by President Trump.
Open source reportIran's navy is carrying out the IRGC's threat to choke off shipping in the vital waterway... Some analysts expect this to rise to $85-90 when markets open today because of Iran's naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s navy is attempting to choke off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz; the disruption is causing flight cancellations and could drive WTI crude to $85–90 per barrel.
Open source reportThe U.S. and Iran confirmed they'll start talks tomorrow - though the White House says they'll take place in Oman... Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will represent the U.S., and Iran is sending its Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi.
The United States and Iran confirmed talks for February 6, 2026, in Oman. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner is U.S. representatives and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as Iran’s representative.
Open source reportOman, which is mediating between the U.S. and Iran, said the fourth round of meetings will be postponed from tomorrow to an unspecified later date "for logistical reasons."
Oman postponed the fourth round of U.S.-Iran talks to an unspecified date for logistical reasons. Iran responded cautiously to U.S. pressure and that the parties remained broadly interested in advancing negotiations.
Open source reportInstead, the U.S. goal for this first session seems to have been to shift from the indirect format Iran wanted to a direct exchange. The U.S. achieved that goal: U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi met directly for 45 minutes at the end of a day of indirect talks.
Washington's immediate objective was to move beyond Iran's preferred indirect format; U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met directly for 45 minutes.
Open source reportThe U.S. and Iran held their first bilateral talks since 2018 on Saturday in Oman. Both sides seemed pleased with how it went, so they'll continue with a second round of talks starting Saturday in Rome.
Oman meeting is the first bilateral U.S.-Iran talks since 2018 and says a second round was scheduled to begin in Rome the following Saturday. Some Israeli officials considered the U.S. approach too soft.
Open source reportThey could well fail if U.S. negotiators make heavy-handed demands that a weakened and insecure Iran would feel compelled to reject - such as ordering Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear programs.
Negotiations could fail if U.S. demands, including complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear programs, leave Tehran feeling compelled to reject an agreement.
Open source reportPres. Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran will engage in direct* nuclear talks starting Saturday in Oman. *Iran confirmed that it will participate in talks with the U.S. starting Saturday, but said the first round will be conducted indirectly via mediators
Talks are scheduled for 12 April. President Trump characterized them as direct, while Iran said the first round would occur indirectly through mediators and that direct engagement could follow if it succeeds.
Open source reportIran privately asked its Houthi proxies to dial back their attacks and nudged Oman to convey the same message to Houthi leaders.
Iran privately asked the Houthis to reduce attacks on Red Sea shipping and encouraged Oman to deliver a similar message after Trump threatened to hold Tehran responsible for future attacks.
Open source reportThe U.S. transferred 11 Yemeni detainees from Guantanamo Bay to Oman, where they'll be resettled. That leaves 15 prisoners remaining at Guantanamo.
11 Yemeni detainees were transferred from Guantanamo Bay to Oman for resettlement, leaving 15 prisoners at the facility.
Open source reportIran's acting Foreign Minister, Ali Bagheri, acknowledged that the U.S. and Iran continue to engage in indirect talks via Omani mediators: "We have always continued our negotiations…and they have never stopped."
Iran’s acting foreign minister, Ali Bagheri, is quoted as saying indirect negotiations with the United States through Omani mediators have continued and never stopped.
Open source report