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The proposal does not resolve whether Iran and Oman may charge ships for navigational and security services; the issue is expected to be addressed in planned technical talks.
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The proposal does not resolve whether Iran and Oman may charge ships for navigational and security services; the issue is expected to be addressed in planned technical talks.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Oman dossier
8 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Oman
11 Yemeni detainees were transferred from Guantanamo Bay to Oman for resettlement, leaving 15 prisoners at the facility.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
The latest proposal doesn't address the issue of whether Iran and Oman will be allowed to charge ships fees for their navigational and security "services"... That question still needs to be worked out in planned "technical talks."
The proposal does not resolve whether Iran and Oman may charge ships for navigational and security services; the issue is expected to be addressed in planned technical talks.
Open source reportIran and Oman said they were close to a deal to establish "a joint temporary navigational corridor through the Strait of Hormuz and an agreement to implement a joint project to clear the Strait of mines."
Iran and Oman said they were close to establishing a joint temporary navigational corridor and implementing a joint project to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz.
Open source reportAxios reported that the U.S. has stealthily set up a shipping corridor on the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz that has seen 15-20 tankers per day enter or exit the Persian Gulf over the past few weeks.
Axios identified a shipping corridor carrying 15–20 tankers per day into or out of the Persian Gulf over recent weeks. The nighttime transits receive U.S. Air Force fighter protection and were absent from Kpler data showing three-month-low traffic.
Open source reportTrump may hope his threats pressure Oman into either walking away from talks with Iran or advocating a plan more favorable to the U.S. than the current proposal.
Trump may be seeking to pressure Oman to leave the talks with Iran or advocate terms more favorable to the United States.
Open source reportWhat got Oman in Trump's sights was its negotiations with Iran on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. was excluded from those talks and objects to rumored provisions to eventually let Iran and Oman charge fees (i.e., tolls) to ships transiting the waterway.
Oman is negotiating with Iran over reopening the strait without U.S. participation; Washington objects to rumored provisions that could eventually permit Oman and Iran to charge ships transit fees.
Open source reportPres. Trump threatened Oman - a longtime U.S. ally - in a phone interview with Fox News: "If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the shit out of them."
Trump threatened military action against longtime U.S. ally Oman during a Fox News phone interview.
Open source reportIran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Iran is "very close" to a deal with Oman to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but other Iranian officials then complicated the matter by tying a full reopening to a list of demands the U.S. must meet first.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran was “very close” to an agreement with Oman to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although other Iranian officials linked a full reopening to U.S. concessions.
Open source reportIt struck the Greek-owned cargo ship Minoan Pioneer on Monday, and another cargo carrier yesterday.
Iran was accused of striking the Greek-owned cargo ship Minoan Pioneer on August 3 and another cargo carrier on August 4 as vessels continued using the Omani route through the strait.
Open source reportThe current draft thus proposes a 60-day period in which Iran controls inbound traffic to the Persian Gulf while Oman controls outbound traffic, with neither charging transiting ships for passage.
The draft gives Iran control of inbound Persian Gulf traffic and Oman control of outbound traffic for 60 days, with neither country charging transiting vessels. Iran would lead clearance of the mined middle lane during the first 30 days before transitioning to joint management under undecided terms that could include fees.
Open source reportPres. Trump said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic could come as soon as today.
Trump said an agreement could be reached as soon as August 5 through Iran-Oman negotiations conducted with U.S. input and Qatari mediation, rather than through a bilateral U.S.-Iran deal.
Open source reportU.S. officials privy to the Iran-Oman talks suggest the final version could be watered down to something that weakens Iran's ability to profit from its belligerence but still meets Pres. Trump's most urgent goal of reopening the Strait.
U.S. officials described as familiar with the negotiations suggested the final arrangement could limit Iran’s ability to profit while still advancing Trump’s immediate objective of reopening the strait.
Open source reportThe U.S. would certainly object to a deal that gives Iran more control over the Strait than it had before the war - or that lets Iran profit from its newfound chokehold on the waterway.
The United States would likely oppose an arrangement that gives Iran greater control over the strait or allows Tehran to profit from its position at the chokepoint.
Open source reportThe Iran-Oman deal would give Iran control of an entry lane into the Persian Gulf and Oman control of the exit lane leaving the Gulf, with both countries allowed to charge "service fees" - not tolls - for their stewardship of the chokepoint.
a prospective agreement would give Iran control of an entry lane into the Persian Gulf and Oman control of the exit lane, with both countries permitted to charge service fees rather than tolls.
Open source reportIran's Navy enforced the Strait's closure once more when it "targeted and stopped" three oil tankers it accused of taking an "unsafe and illegal route" through the Strait (read: via Omani waters).
Iran’s Navy targeted and stopped three tankers it accused of following an unsafe and illegal route through the strait as passage via Omani waters.
Open source reportIran countered with a lopsided proposal that would leave it firmly in control of both lanes of traffic, and said the Strait would remain closed until Oman agreed to its proposal.
Iran rejected an Omani proposal assigning each country oversight of one traffic lane, countered with terms that would leave Iran controlling both lanes, and said the strait would remain closed until Oman agreed.
Open source reportThere are some key differences between Malacca and Hormuz that will make Hormuz harder to manage with that model.
Hormuz is assessed as harder to manage under a Strait of Malacca-style model because vessels may have less need for paid services and Iran, one of the proposed guardians, is characterized as the principal threat to shipping. Iran has not agreed to the proposal and may resist responsibility for clearing the central lane, although its negotiators are described as flexible.
Open source reportUnder Oman's proposal, Oman, Iran, and other members of a regional consortium would collect a "voluntary service fee" for providing "security" to vessels transiting any of three proposed shipping lanes
Several rounds of Iranian-Omani talks produced a proposal for three shipping lanes managed by Oman, Iran and other regional consortium members. Vessels would pay a voluntary service fee for security, and the central international lane would reopen after Iran removed mines attributed to it.
Open source reportU.S. airstrikes targeted infrastructure in Iran - including an airport, a train station, and several bridges - and Iran hit back at U.S. military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and (for the first known time) Syria.
U.S. strikes hit an airport, a railway station, and bridges in Iran, followed by Iranian attacks on U.S. military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Syria.
Open source reportAraghchi's diplomatic outreach suggests that moderates like him are seeking an off ramp even as hardliners escalate their aggressive rhetoric.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi communicated with counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Oman and called Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Munir. The outreach indicates Iranian moderates are seeking de-escalation.
Open source reportIran does not appear to be restricting transits through the Strait... Rather, shipping traffic seems constrained by the fact that vessels are avoiding the main central route through the Strait because of mines Iran laid in it.
Iran is not directly restricting transit and instead attributes reduced traffic to vessels avoiding a mined central route. Iran ordered ships onto a permission-based northern route, while some vessels use a southern route near Oman under U.S. Navy observation. The underlying routing and mine claims remain.
Open source reportKpler, a data firm, reported that 109 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz between Saturday and Monday. That's the most in a three-day period since the war began, but still far below the average daily pre-war rate of ~130 per day.
According to Kpler, a count of 109 ship transits between Saturday and Monday, described as the highest three-day total since the cited war began but still below a claimed prewar average of about 130 ships per day.
Open source reportExperts suggest around two million barrels of oil are leaking through the Strait per day, which is around one-seventh the pre-war volume that passed through daily but still a decent rate. That's perhaps why oil prices have remained lower than analysts thought they'd be after a prolonged blockade.
Unnamed experts estimating daily oil transit at about two million barrels, roughly one-seventh of the stated prewar volume; continued flows may help explain lower-than-expected prices.
Open source reportIran says the Strait of Hormuz is "completely closed" and claims it is actively targeting ships that try to defy its blockade. U.S. officials don't consider the Strait closed: Pres. Trump says U.S. vessels have helped tankers carrying a cumulative total of 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait.
Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed and that vessels attempting passage are being targeted. It contrasts this with a claim from President Trump that U.S. vessels helped tankers carrying a cumulative 100 million barrels of oil transit the strait.
Open source reportU.S. ships have quietly escorted around 70 commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz in the past three weeks. That's an approximate figure, since the U.S.-guided passages have been "dark," with transponders turned off, and probably hugging the Omani coast to stay as far as possible from Iranian fire.
U.S. ships quietly escorted roughly 70 commercial vessels through the strait over three weeks, with transponders disabled and routes near Oman. It compares the implied rate of about three vessels daily with a claimed prewar rate of 100.
Open source reportRubio drew a red line with a warning that a tolling system "would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible."
Iran and Oman were discussing a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz and attributes to Rubio a warning that such an arrangement would make a diplomatic agreement unfeasible.
Open source reportIn a second incident, an Indian-flagged (and Indian-crewed) vessel, the Haji Ali, sank off the coast of Oman after a suspected drone or missile attack.
The Indian-flagged and Indian-crewed Haji Ali sank after a suspected drone or missile strike. The crew evacuated safely but livestock being transported from Berbera to Sharjah did not survive.
Open source reportIranian troops seized a vessel operating as a "floating armory" - a storage ship for weapons that private security firms use to protect client vessels from piracy or other attacks - in the Gulf of Oman.
Hui Chuan is a vessel operating as a floating armory but says its cargo and client at the time of the seizure were unclear.
Open source reportIranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Oman yesterday to seek Muscat's help in setting up a new tolling system for the Strait.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Oman to seek Muscat’s assistance establishing a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz. Oman will probably decline.
Open source reportThe WSJ suggested that Trump may try to prove his claim that U.S. forces alone can reopen the strait by deploying around 2,200 Marines to seize several islands in the area
Trump may deploy approximately 2,200 Marines from Japan to seize several islands and establish bases for countering attacks on commercial shipping.
Open source reportThe European Union and Japan issued a joint statement expressing their "readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait [of Hormuz]"
The European Union and Japan expressed readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the strait, while officials indicated that this did not include military support sought by President Trump.
Open source reportIran's navy is carrying out the IRGC's threat to choke off shipping in the vital waterway... Some analysts expect this to rise to $85-90 when markets open today because of Iran's naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s navy is attempting to choke off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz; the disruption is causing flight cancellations and could drive WTI crude to $85–90 per barrel.
Open source reportThe U.S. and Iran confirmed they'll start talks tomorrow - though the White House says they'll take place in Oman... Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will represent the U.S., and Iran is sending its Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi.
The United States and Iran confirmed talks for February 6, 2026, in Oman. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner is U.S. representatives and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as Iran’s representative.
Open source reportOman, which is mediating between the U.S. and Iran, said the fourth round of meetings will be postponed from tomorrow to an unspecified later date "for logistical reasons."
Oman postponed the fourth round of U.S.-Iran talks to an unspecified date for logistical reasons. Iran responded cautiously to U.S. pressure and that the parties remained broadly interested in advancing negotiations.
Open source reportInstead, the U.S. goal for this first session seems to have been to shift from the indirect format Iran wanted to a direct exchange. The U.S. achieved that goal: U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi met directly for 45 minutes at the end of a day of indirect talks.
Washington's immediate objective was to move beyond Iran's preferred indirect format; U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met directly for 45 minutes.
Open source reportThe U.S. and Iran held their first bilateral talks since 2018 on Saturday in Oman. Both sides seemed pleased with how it went, so they'll continue with a second round of talks starting Saturday in Rome.
Oman meeting is the first bilateral U.S.-Iran talks since 2018 and says a second round was scheduled to begin in Rome the following Saturday. Some Israeli officials considered the U.S. approach too soft.
Open source reportThey could well fail if U.S. negotiators make heavy-handed demands that a weakened and insecure Iran would feel compelled to reject - such as ordering Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear programs.
Negotiations could fail if U.S. demands, including complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear programs, leave Tehran feeling compelled to reject an agreement.
Open source reportPres. Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran will engage in direct* nuclear talks starting Saturday in Oman. *Iran confirmed that it will participate in talks with the U.S. starting Saturday, but said the first round will be conducted indirectly via mediators
Talks are scheduled for 12 April. President Trump characterized them as direct, while Iran said the first round would occur indirectly through mediators and that direct engagement could follow if it succeeds.
Open source reportIran privately asked its Houthi proxies to dial back their attacks and nudged Oman to convey the same message to Houthi leaders.
Iran privately asked the Houthis to reduce attacks on Red Sea shipping and encouraged Oman to deliver a similar message after Trump threatened to hold Tehran responsible for future attacks.
Open source reportThe U.S. transferred 11 Yemeni detainees from Guantanamo Bay to Oman, where they'll be resettled. That leaves 15 prisoners remaining at Guantanamo.
11 Yemeni detainees were transferred from Guantanamo Bay to Oman for resettlement, leaving 15 prisoners at the facility.
Open source reportIran's acting Foreign Minister, Ali Bagheri, acknowledged that the U.S. and Iran continue to engage in indirect talks via Omani mediators: "We have always continued our negotiations…and they have never stopped."
Iran’s acting foreign minister, Ali Bagheri, is quoted as saying indirect negotiations with the United States through Omani mediators have continued and never stopped.
Open source report