Hormuz bargaining, Aung San Suu Kyi appearance, Russian opposition exile, and renewed Tigray fighting

Off Leash update 4 August 2026

IRAN •There are no new talks between the U.S. and Iran this week, despite Pres. Trump's announcement of a new round of negotiations that would've started yesterday. •Trump remains open to dialogue, though, and sought to threaten the regime back to the negotiating table by warning that this was its "last chance before decapitation" to make a deal, starting with an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and leading to an eventual pact on Iran's nuclear program. •Iran is much closer to a deal with Oman than it is with the U.S. The reported Iran-Oman deal would give Iran control of an entry lane into the Persian Gulf and Oman control of the exit lane leaving the Gulf, with both countries allowed to charge "service fees" - not tolls - for their stewardship of the chokepoint. •The U.S. would certainly object to a deal that gives Iran more control over the Strait than it had before the war - or that lets Iran profit from its newfound chokehold on the waterway. U.S. officials privy to the Iran-Oman talks suggest the final version could be watered down to something that weakens Iran's ability to profit from its belligerence but still meets Pres. Trump's most urgent goal of reopening the Strait.

MYANMAR •Myanmar's ousted civilian leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, hadn't been photographed or allowed outside contact in months, leading to rising calls for the junta keeping the 81-year-old under strict house arrest to offer proof that she's still alive. •The junta finally did so yesterday, when it allowed the head of the local Red Cross to meet with her - both in front of guards and in private - and published a photo of her standing and smiling to greet her visitor. The smile must've been at least partly genuine: this was her first visitor outside the regime that jailed her since her 2022 show trial; even her lawyers have been refused access. •The junta's tolerance of the visit suggests it views Aung San Suu Kyi as less of a political threat now that the regime has crushed all of its organized opposition and cemented its claim to power with manipulated elections in April.

RUSSIA •Boris Nadezhdin, one of Russia's last remaining unjailed opposition politicians, announced that he had given up hope (which, incidentally, is the meaning of his surname in Russian) and fled to France. •Nadezhdin had planned to contest September's Duma elections - the first since the Ukraine war began - on an anti-war platform, but was barred from running and later designated a "foreign agent," which means he can't teach or hold office. He also probably can't return to Russia: his foreign agent designation also came with an exit ban that he violated when he fled. •The "extremist" content authorities accused Nadezhdin of propagating was a video that briefly flashed an image of late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who was poisoned in a penal colony in Siberia after being sent there on spurious charges.

SOUTH AFRICA •South Africa's Western Cape High Court opened a case challenging the controversial Expropriation Act that Pres. Ramaphosa signed last year allowing the government to seize private land - and, in some cases where negotiations have failed, to do so without compensating its owners. •The challenge was brought by the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA), which objects to the Act's violations of property rights and potential for expropriation without compensation. But the Act has many other critics, including U.S. President Trump, who has worried the law could be used to target white farmers and punished South Africa with aid cuts and high tariffs over it. ETHIOPIA •A new round of fighting erupted in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region over the weekend, sending hundreds of civilians and fighters fleeing into Sudan. •Both the government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front accused the other of trying to reopen the war they fought between 2020 and 2022, which the African Union estimates killed at least 600,000.

NAOERO •The tiny (8 sq. mi. / 20 sq. km.) Pacific island nation of Nauru is reverting to its traditional name of Naoero ("Now-ero"), which was simplified to Nauru to be easier for foreigners mining the island's phosphate to pronounce. The republic's 19-member parliament was going to hold a referendum on the name change, but decided it could speak for the 11,000 citizens it represents.

Correction: This week is, of course, the 81st anniversary of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings - not the 80th. Sorry for the error.