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3 direct mentions across 3 briefings, with 2 linked developments.
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South Africa’s top court rejected the MK party’s attempt to block government formation and that preliminary indications showed the Democratic Alliance and Inkatha Freedom Party joining an ANC-led coalition with a legislative majority.
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South Africa’s top court rejected the MK party’s attempt to block government formation and that preliminary indications showed the Democratic Alliance and Inkatha Freedom Party joining an ANC-led coalition with a legislative majority.
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Democratic Alliance dossier
2 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
South Africa
The African National Congress is holding coalition talks with the Democratic Alliance; South African stocks, bonds, and currency rose amid expectations of a more business-friendly governing arrangement.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash Update 13 June Ukraine •G7 leaders are reportedly close to agreeing on a compromise that would lend Ukraine around $50 billion now to rebuild destroyed infrastructure - and repay the loan over time using interest from frozen Russian funds. Ukraine will need much more than $50 billion to rebuild. •As part of its fundraising efforts, Ukraine announced a new plan to auction off around 20 state-owned companies - including the landmark Hotel Ukraine in Kyiv, as well as some mining and chemical companies. The proceeds would plug some of the gaping hole in Ukraine's budget. Russia •Russia responded to new U.S. sanctions by announcing an immediate ban on trading in dollars or euros on its main bourse, the Moscow Exchange (MOEX). •The ban won't really matter because most MOEX traders have already switched from dollars or euros to Chinese yuan. As one Russian commodities trader told Reuters: "We don't care [about the ban], we have yuan. Getting dollars and euros in Russia is practically impossible." •Meanwhile, four Russian navy vessels arrived in Havana harbour, in what the BBC called "a show of force amid tensions with the West over the war in Ukraine." Cuban officials were quick to clarify that none of the boats have any weapons aboard. The U.S. is monitoring them anyway. China •After an EU investigation concluded that government subsidies give Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers an unfair competitive advantage over European manufacturers, the EU proposed a plan to level the playing field by imposing new tariffs of up to 38% on cheap Chinese EV imports. •China decried the EU's decision and urged the bloc to reverse its "wrong direction" on tariffs, but the reality is that Chinese EVs are so much cheaper than EU competitors that even a 38% tariff won't make up the difference: in 1H 2023, the average retail price of a Chinese EV was $33,000 vs. $70,700 in Europe. •[U.S. 1H 2023 EV prices were roughly in line with the EU's at $72,000, and the U.S. has since slapped a stiffer, 100% tariff on imported Chinese EVs.] Yemen •Yemen's Houthis used a "drone boat" - along with aerial drones and ballistic missiles - to attack a Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier, the Tutor. The Tutor's captain later reported that "the vessel is taking on water, and not under command of the crew" after a second impact. DRC •DRC's new government - including its first-ever female prime minister - was sworn in yesterday after months of delays due to disagreements over appointments. South Africa •South Africa's top court rejected an appeal by ex-Pres. Zuma's new MK party that sought to stop Zuma's former African National Congress (ANC) party - and his political rival, Pres. Ramaphosa - from forming a government. •According to preliminary indications, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) have already agreed to join the ANC's national unity government, bringing it over the majority it needed. •That government is expected to re-elect Pres. Ramaphosa tomorrow. Other News •The NYT reported that Saudi Arabia is on the verge of approving a plan to invest up to $2 billion in a hostile takeover of the disorganized array of global professional men's boxing promoters and sanctioning bodies. •The consultant-advised plan would see today's confused tangle of boxing organizations brought together under a single entity representing around 200 top male boxers in a model similar to that of the UFC, which has steadily stolen fightsport fans away from boxing.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 4 June Gaza •Two far-right members of PM Netanyahu's fragile coalition - his national security minister and finance minister - threatened to bring down his government if he accepts the ceasefire deal Pres. Biden proposed. The opposing ministers say they'll refuse any deal that lets Hamas survive as a political entity. Ukraine •On Friday, the Biden administration said it would allow Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia. Later that day, Ukraine did just that: it used HIMARS launchers to target Belgorod Friday night, and may have also used U.S. weapons to destroy a Russian S-300 yesterday. A Ukrainian official observed that the S-300 "burns beautifully." Russia •Russian bots are flooding EU voters' news feeds with disinformation ahead of this weekend's election for the regional parliament. Aside from the usual fake news about Ukraine, Russian e-trolls are churning out false stories to create skepticism about liberal EU climate policies to nudge voters to support candidates who are more open to relaxing sanctions on Russia and buying more Russian gas. Iran •Iran's acting Foreign Minister, Ali Bagheri, acknowledged that the U.S. and Iran continue to engage in indirect talks via Omani mediators: "We have always continued our negotiations…and they have never stopped." Bagheri would know: he was a lead participant in the discussions earlier this year. Sahel •Bloomberg reported that Russia's state nuclear company, Rosatom, is negotiating with Niger's junta to acquire French mining assets in the Sahel. Niger is the world's seventh-largest uranium producer - with about 4% of global production last year - and the junta would be happy to sever more ties with the country's former colonial power (France) in favor of Russia, which has been sending Niger military support with few overt strings attached. North Korea •I should clarify yesterday's news about South Korea pulling out of its 2018 non-escalation pact with North Korea: the North already suspended its side of the deal and the South partially suspended it last year, so Seoul's latest move would only sever the thin remaining symbolic threads of the original pact. •The North is probably more upset about the threat of K-pop and real news blasting over the border than the South is about the trash-filled balloons floating over to its side. One analyst summarized Kim Jong Un's dilemma nicely: "Kim doesn't want his people to know about their relative deprivation and the quality of life in the free world. He is more afraid of [K-pop band] BTS than U.S. nukes." South Africa •South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) is reportedly in talks with the Democratic Alliance (DA) about a coalition government. South Africa's stocks, bonds, and currency rose on the news that the ANC plans to work with the pro-business DA instead of a less business-friendly party like Jacob Zuma's MK. Other News •Nigerians are striking en masse to demand higher wages amidst the highest inflation levels in 28 years - caused in part by Pres. Tinubu's efforts at economic reform, which included ending disastrous fuel subsidies. Workers protesting the economically painful adjustments Tinubu's reforms have shut down the national security grid and suspended operations at major airports.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 3 June Coming Up This Week •Results from India's six-week election are due tomorrow. Exit polls show a comfortable lead for PM Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party, despite challenges from a newly-united opposition calling for a fairer distribution of power and economic opportunities. •Russia has invited friendly countries - including China and India, but also North Korea and Taliban Afghanistan - for the St. Petersburg International Forum Wednesday through Saturday. •Thursday (June 6) is the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings. •EU countries vote for the bloc's parliament Thursday through Sunday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,653/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $21,250/ton •Cobalt: $27,150/ton •Copper: $10,040/ton •Gold: $2,330/toz •Lead: $2,273/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.71/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $76.72/barrel •Zinc: $2,970/ton South Africa •South Africa released official election results on Saturday, confirming that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela led it to victory in 1994. •The ANC, which won 40.2% of the vote, now has two weeks to form a coalition, but its factions disagree on which opposition party to bring into a coalition. •Pragmatic voices favor the business-friendly Democratic Alliance (DA), which won 21.8% of the vote and would easily bring the ANC over the 50% mark for a majority. •Former ANC president Zuma's upstart uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party won - some would say spoiled - 14.6% of the vote, and thus could also bring the ANC over the 50% mark; however, Zuma has a bitter history with many in the ANC, including Pres. Ramaphosa. •The Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which won 9.5% of the vote, wouldn't bring enough votes to get the ANC's coalition to 50% by itself: the ANC would need to bring a third minor party in, too. Mexico •Climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum won enough votes in yesterday's Mexican presidential election that poll officials are already calling the poll in her favor. •Sheinbaum is part of Pres. AMLO's Morena party - which may have won a two-thirds super-majority yesterday - and a mentee of AMLO, but she hasn't been vocal about whether she plans to continue his populist policies or change course to try to fix the economic woes that worsened under his rule. Gaza •Pres. Biden shared a new ceasefire proposal with Israel, forcing PM Netanyahu to make a tough decision: if he accepts a deal for peace in Gaza, he'll secure the release of Hamas's hostages - but risk losing the hard-right support that his government needs to stay in power. •Nonetheless, the White House said it has "every expectation" that Netanyahu will accept the proposal if Hamas does (Hamas hasn't officially responded yet). •The three phases of the tabled proposal are: oFirst phase: A six-week ceasefire would see Israel withdraw from major Gazan cities and let displaced Gazans return to the north; Israel would release hundreds of jailed Palestinians and allow aid flows to resume. In return, Hamas would also observe the ceasefire and would release some (elderly, female, and wounded) hostages. oSecond phase: Israel would completely withdraw from Gaza to honor a permanent ceasefire (the proposal doesn't answer the hard question of who would run Gaza after Israel withdraws). Hamas would release all living prisoners, including male soldiers, and Israel would release more prisoners. oThird phase: Hamas would return the remains of dead hostages and kick off a three- to five-year reconstruction period. North Korea •South Korea was displeased at the trash- and excrement-filled balloons North Korea floated over their shared border last week, and said it would scrap a 2018 agreement it signed with its northern neighbor to ease tensions. 1/2
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