Pakistan-Afghanistan strikes, stalled Iran talks and political uncertainty in Cuba

Off Leash update 27 Feb

AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Pakistani jets bombed Kabul and Kandahar today in retaliation for Afghan attacks on Pakistani border positions hours earlier. •Pakistan's defense minister warned Afghanistan's Taliban government in a social media post that "our cup of patience has overflowed" and declared an "open war." However, its strikes today were quite limited in scale and scope, and didn't seem like the opening salvo of a full-scale war. •While Islamabad would love to see the end of the Taliban government and its support for Pakistani Taliban militants, it can't afford a war with Afghanistan that would divert its military resources from fighting internal insurgencies or maintaining readiness for a potential future showdown with India.

IRAN •American and Iranian officials met for six hours of nuclear talks in Geneva yesterday, but failed to break through their impasse - largely because Iran still refuses to cave to U.S. demands to stop all nuclear work. •Iranian officials and Omani mediators said the two sides agreed to continue negotiations with another round of talks next week, but U.S. officials pointedly declined to confirm, driving speculation that Pres. Trump may be losing patience with diplomacy.

VENEZUELA •Interim president Delcy Rodriguez's government suspended 19 oil and gas production sharing agreements signed under Rodriguez's predecessor, Nicolas Maduro, while Venezuela and the U.S. jointly review the contracts and counterparties. •The suspended contracts were signed while Venezuela was under sanctions, which scared oil majors away from bidding. As a result, most of the deals went to shady and little-known companies with less operating experience. Caracas likely hopes to reassign them to more capable operators. •First, Rodriguez need to restore oil majors' confidence in Venezuela. To that end, she called on Pres. Trump to end sanctions and a naval blockade of sanctioned tankers in a speech on state television yesterday.

CHINA •China removed nine military officers and 10 other officials from its National People's Congress, which convenes for annual meetings next week. •No reason was given for the removals, but they appear to be part of Xi Jinping's ever-widening crackdown on corruption. •Xi's critics say his purges are less about rooting out corruption and more about consolidating power by sidelining rivals and dissenters.

CUBA •Details of yesterday's shootout between Cuban border guards and alleged seaborne "infiltrators" are still murky. •Most of what we know comes from the Cuban government's account of the incident, but that's now being called into question after one of the men Havana identified as a dead attacker popped up alive and well in Miami. He told reporters he would love to bring down the Cuban regime, though he clearly wasn't part of this attempt to do so. •The men who were actually killed and captured in the incident seem to have been Cuban dissidents, too.