Ukraine operations, Bagram proposal and Iran sanctions risk lead 19 September update

Off Leash update 19 Sept

UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky said his armed forces had reclaimed 160 sq km (62 sq mi) of territory in Donetsk from Russian forces in a counteroffensive that Zelensky called an "important success." •Ukraine has also recently been targeting oil infrastructure far from the front lines, including Russia's largest refinery in Ufa - which is about 1,400 km (870 mi) from Ukraine - and its largest Baltic Sea oil terminal at Primorsk. Some analysts suggest the latest strikes are beginning to hinder Russian oil production - and thus constrict the Kremlin's top source of war funding. •Kyiv's recent successes are particularly impressive given new Ukrainian military intelligence that Russia has thousands of foreign mercenaries fighting on its side. The new intelligence report noted that Cuba is "at the very top" of countries sending hired guns to fight for Moscow, with at least 20,000 Cuban citizens recruited so far.

AFGHANISTAN •Pres. Trump floated the idea of reestablishing a U.S. military base at Bagram in Afghanistan as part of an effort to counter China's growing influence in the region. Trump has mentioned a return to Bagram before, but it's not clear whether the Pentagon is actively planning for it yet. •Afghanistan's Taliban government was quick to reject the idea hours after Trump mentioned it yesterday. A foreign ministry spokesman said it was against the U.S. having "any military presence" in Afghanistan, but was open to "political and economic relations based on mutual respect and shared interests."

IRAN •It sounds like Iran and the European signatories of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal have made little progress on negotiations to avoid the imminent "snapback" of sanctions over Iran's noncompliance with the deal's terms. •That means the UN Security Council could vote to reinstate sanctions on Iran as early as next week. •Iran has threatened to walk away from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if sanctions are reimposed, but most analysts believe Tehran still hopes to negotiate a better outcome and won't blow up talks by withdrawing from the NPT.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) •China's DeepSeek - which stunned the AI world in January by introducing a stellar open-source reasoning model that it developed faster and cheaper than proprietary Western rival models - published a new, peer-reviewed study proving its claims that its groundbreaking R1 model didn't rely on rivals for training and cost just $294k to create. By comparison, OpenAI's GPT-4 cost over $63 million just to train. •Separately, AI chipmaking giant Nvidia announced plans to invest $5 billion in its older rival, Intel, which has struggled to keep up with advancements in chipmaking. The news sent share prices higher across the chipmaking sector.

RANDOM •Ig Nobel winners were announced yesterday. •This year's mock awards - which recognize "achievements that first make people laugh and then make them think" - celebrated research showing that painting cows like zebras deterred insects from biting them, giving Germans vodka shots slightly improved their ability to speak Dutch, and rainbow lizards at a resort in Togo preferred four-cheese pizza over other topping choices.