Ukraine talks, Iran diplomacy and mounting pressure over Gaza

Off Leash update 22 July UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky announced that Ukraine and Russia will meet for peace talks in Istanbul tomorrow. •Zelensky seems more open to an immediate ceasefire than Pres. Putin does. The Kremlin is already managing expectations for the summit: a spokesman told reporters not "to expect any breakthroughs in the category of miracles - it is hardly possible in the current situation." •Separately, the NYT reported that Russia's Iranian-designed Shahed drones have become better at hitting their targets - despite parallel improvements in Ukraine's air defenses. Last year, 7% of Shahed fire breached air defenses to reach its target. This year to date, that rate has reached 11%.

IRAN •Iran responded to the EU's threat to reimpose UN nuclear sanctions in the absence of a new nuclear deal by convening talks with the UK, France, and Germany starting this Friday. •If those go well, they could open the door to new nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran - although Iranian officials note that there are currently "no plans to hold talks with the United States," suggesting that Iran is still smarting from U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities last month.

CHINA •Chinese Premier Li Qiang inaugurated the construction of a massive dam on Tibet's Yarlung Zangbo River that will become the world's largest green energy plant. The 1.2 trillion yuan ($167 billion) project will take 10 years or more to complete. •Unlike DRC's Grand Inga Dam - which, at ~40-70 gigawatts, would have a capacity somewhere between Three Gorges (23 gigawatts) and the new dam in Tibet (70 gigawatts) *IF* it's ever completed - investors have high confidence in the ambitious new stimulus-supported project. Chinese stock and bond prices rose after Premier Li's announcement yesterday. •Separately, Chinese authorities accused local governments and hospitals in western Gansu Province of tampering with blood tests to cover up evidence of lead poisoning affecting over 250 kindergartners. •The cover-up might have worked if the initial offense had been less egregious: school staff jazzed up kids' lunches with powdered pigments - which were clearly marked as inedible and contained 20% lead - to make the food look better in marketing photos. •The resulting symptoms of lead poisoning were so obvious that parents doubted local blood test results showing their kids were fine, and took their kids to other provinces for untampered testing that confirmed dangerously elevated blood lead levels.

VENEZUELA •Venezuela's sanctioned Attorney General, Tarek Saab, opened an investigation into allegations that 252 Venezuelan migrants - purportedly gang members - who were deported from the U.S. were tortured in El Salvador's CECOT detention center before their repatriation to Venezuela as part of a trilateral prisoner swap last week. •Saab didn't mention how the nearly 1,000 political prisoners still languishing in Venezuelan jails are being treated.

ISRAEL •Yesterday, foreign ministers from 25 countries - including the UK and a majority of EU member states - signed a statement declaring that Israel's "denial of essential humanitarian assistance to the civilian population [of Gaza] is unacceptable," and concluding that "the war in Gaza must end now." •Pope Leo joined in the criticism, expressing his "deep sorrow" and calling for an end to the "barbarity of war" after Israeli shelling damaged Gaza's only Catholic church, killing three and wounding nine (including a priest). •White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt acknowledged that Pres. Trump was also "caught off guard" by Israel's go-it-alone airstrikes on Syria and shelling of Gaza's Holy Family Church, and "quickly called the [Israeli] prime minister to rectify these situations." 1/2