Syria tensions, Ukraine minerals and eastern DRC pressures dominate 26 February update

Off Leash update 26 Feb

Syria •Syria's interim president, Ahmed al Sharaa, opened a two-day conference in Damascus yesterday. •Al Sharaa hopes to use the event to win support from the diverse factions in attendance for his unity government, but one key faction is missing: the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led militia that controls northeast Syria. •Al Sharaa would prefer to include the SDF, but didn't invite it to this summit because the SDF refused to agree to his condition to disarm. The SDF doesn't want to disarm because - as its commander, Gen. Mazloum Abdi, told BBC recently - "we are still at war with Turkey and its proxies." •Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu called for the "complete demilitarization" of southern Syria on Sunday, and Pres. al Sharaa responded yesterday by demanding that Israel withdraw from the Syrian positions it grabbed as Assad's government fell. Israel then showed it has no plans to withdraw by launching airstrikes on what the army described as "military targets in southern Syria, including headquarters and sites containing weapons." Ukraine •U.S. and Ukrainian officials announced that they'd reached a deal that would grant the U.S. a share of Ukrainian mineral revenues. •The specific terms of their agreement aren't yet clear because the final translated draft hasn't been released, but early reports suggest the U.S. would give Ukraine security guarantees in return for up to half of the revenues from Ukraine's future mineral sales. Russia •The EU revealed the targets of its 16th round of sanctions that was announced last week to mark the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Among the 48 individuals sanctioned was chess grandmaster Sergey Karjakin, who vocally endorsed the invasion and became a Russian senator representing Crimea. DRC •The UN's World Food Program estimated that around one million people have been displaced by fighting in eastern DRC in the first two months of 2025. That's roughly equivalent to the full-time population of Goma. It also seems debatable: other reports suggest that life in Goma and Bukavu is returning to semi-normal under Rwandan and rebel control. •The UK suspended its aid to Rwanda over Kigali's invasion of eastern DRC. Rwanda grumbled about the "punitive" suspension and accused the UK of having "clearly chosen a side." •Burundi chose Kinshasa's side too, and local reports noted Burundian soldiers heading to Uvira alongside pro-Kinshasa militias. •As if DRC needed more to worry about, health authorities reported the outbreak of what seems to be a new, deadly, and still unidentified illness in the northwest. The mystery disease started with three children who got sick after eating a bat; it has now infected over 430 people and killed at least 53 of them. Tests have ruled out Ebola and Marburg viruses. •Separately, Reuters reported that Kinshasa is considering imposing quotas on cobalt exports, and will evaluate the idea during the four-month export ban it announced Monday. Gaza •Hamas and Israel said they'd reached a deal to trade 600+ Palestinian prisoners for the remains of four slain hostages. Israel was supposed to free these prisoners last weekend, but postponed their release over anger at Hamas's darkly theatrical hostage release ceremonies. •The Times of Israel reported that Hamas has agreed not to dramatize today's swap - but it also noted that it broke a similar promise last time. China •Taiwan's coast guard detained a Chinese-linked cargo ship that it suspects of severing a subsea cable yesterday. China said the incident was just a "common maritime accident" and warned Taiwan against casting blame "while the basic facts and the people responsible for the accident have not yet been clarified." 1/2