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5 direct mentions across 5 briefings, with 5 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Hakan Fidan said the SDF does not intend to fulfill its commitment to integrate into the Syrian army by the end of 2025. Turkey considers the SDF a terrorist organization and wants Damascus to contain it more forcefully.
Unverified development · updated through
Hakan Fidan said the SDF does not intend to fulfill its commitment to integrate into the Syrian army by the end of 2025. Turkey considers the SDF a terrorist organization and wants Damascus to contain it more forcefully.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Syrian Democratic Forces dossier
5 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Northern Syria
An assessment that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may have encouraged the uprising to gain leverage against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces while Russia and Iran were preoccupied elsewhere.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 23 December SYRIA •Turkey's Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, sparked controversy during his visit to Syria yesterday when he commented that the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has no intention of complying with its Spring 2025 commitment to integrate into the Syrian army by the end of the year. •Turkey considers the SDF a terrorist group and wants Pres. Ahmed al Sharaa's government in Damascus to do more to contain it and other Kurdish elements in Syria. •Al Sharaa's government seems reluctant to risk antagonizing either the SDF or Turkey, and thus finds itself in an awkward position between the two. •Syrian government forces briefly launched a half-hearted effort to take over some checkpoints in SDF-controlled parts of Aleppo, but quickly retreated after skirmishes that left two civilians dead. •Al Sharaa and the SDF would probably be content to maintain the status quo, and Damascus reportedly recently sent the SDF a proposal that would essentially formalize the separate arrangement they currently enjoy. •But that's unlikely to satisfy Turkey, which will probably continue to pressure al Sharaa to take a harder line against the SDF. CHINA •A new Pentagon report found that China likely loaded over 100 solid-fuelled DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missiles into silos near Mongolia recently, and concluded that the move suggests Beijing isn't taking Pres. Trump's efforts to engage in denuclearization talks seriously. •Beijing continues to deny that it's aggressively modernizing its military and arms arsenal. Chinese officials have repeatedly accused reports suggesting otherwise - like the Pentagon's latest - of trying to "smear and defame China and deliberately mislead the international community." •Separately, China slapped provisional anti-subsidy duties of 21.9% to 42.7% on European dairy products to - in Beijing's view - level the playing field between the domestic dairy industry and subsidized European imports. The European Commission called the new duties unjustified. SUDAN •Sudan's Prime Minister, Kamil Idris, pitched a peace plan that he called "homemade - not imposed on us" to the UN Security Council (UNSC). •Idris's plan is unlikely to gain traction: it calls for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to agree to give up their arms and retreat to supervised camps. •The RSF - which recently captured El Fasher and has the upper hand in Darfur - certainly won't entertain the idea of surrendering its gains so easily. •Idris's proposal isn't going to win U.S. backing, either. Pres. Trump has instead pushed for a humanitarian truce that the U.S. and its allies on the UNSC will support over Idris's stillborn idea. LIBYA •Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) has reportedly agreed to buy over $4 billion in arms and military equipment from Pakistan. •Details on the finalized agreement are hazy, but an earlier draft included 16 JF-17 fighter jets and 12 Super Mushak trainer aircraft on the LNA's shopping list. •If the deal goes through - which is a big if, since it appears to contravene the UN's arms embargo on Libya - it would be one of Pakistan's largest arms sales ever.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Feb Ukraine •The new U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal is taking shape quickly: it was only announced Tuesday (though speculation was swirling before that), and Pres. Zelensky will fly to Washington tomorrow to sign the final agreement. •Negotiators leaked a draft of the agreement dated Tuesday to the media, and several outlets published the full text (https://t.co/WCfpbsvV3e). Some takeaways: oUkraine will put half of its revenues from future mineral and energy sales into a new, U.S.-controlled investment fund that will reinvest some of the funds into rebuilding Ukraine. oThe fund will only draw on revenues from new projects; proceeds from existing mines, oil wells, etc. are not part of this arrangement. oThe only reference to U.S. security guarantees is highly noncommittal - paragraph 10 says the U.S. "supports Ukraine’s effort to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace" - but Zelensky said he's content with that wording. Trump told his cabinet the onus for security guarantees should be on Europe - not the U.S. oTrump's initial demands for a $500 billion contribution target and Ukraine's commitment to repay twice the amount of any future U.S. aid were both omitted from the draft. •Ukraine has large untapped reserves of several critical minerals whose development could contribute to this fund, including uranium (Europe's largest reserves!), graphite, lithium, titanium, natural gas, and rare earths. However, around 40% of its mineral resources are in regions Russia controls - and would likely keep in a peace deal. Gaza •Hamas and Israel both fulfilled their part of a delicate hostage-prisoner swap yesterday: Hamas returned the remains of four deceased hostages - and crucially, did so without any of the macabre theatrics that marred prior handovers - and Israel began releasing the 600-plus Palestinian prisoners it agreed to free in return. •This swap went smoothly, but the Gaza ceasefire remains fragile, and Israel and Hamas still haven't agreed on terms for the second phase that begins on Sunday. •Israel estimates that Hamas now holds about 25 living and 30 deceased hostages. Syria •Prominent Syrians who attended Pres. al Sharaa's two-day nation-building conference this week left underwhelmed. Several said the summit was poorly organized, left out key stakeholders (like the Syrian Democratic Forces), and failed to make meaningful progress towards planning Syria's future. Venezuela •Pres. Trump announced that he was cancelling Biden-era concessions that allowed Chevron to continue producing and exporting Venezuelan oil because Pres. Maduro failed to implement promised electoral and immigration reforms. •Chevron's license to continue production and export despite sanctions brought an estimated $4 billion into Maduro's state coffers and represented around a quarter of Venezuelan oil production while it was in force. Sahel •The Alliance of Sahel States - Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger - unveiled a new flag for the triad their juntas formed in opposition to ECOWAS. •In keeping with their modus operandi of doing the opposite of whatever their former colonizer - France - would do, the flag they designed is an affront to modern vexillology that breaks all the important rules of flag design (no lettering, simple design a child could draw from memory, 2-3 basic colors that contrast well, etc.)
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 Feb Syria •Syria's interim president, Ahmed al Sharaa, opened a two-day conference in Damascus yesterday. •Al Sharaa hopes to use the event to win support from the diverse factions in attendance for his unity government, but one key faction is missing: the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led militia that controls northeast Syria. •Al Sharaa would prefer to include the SDF, but didn't invite it to this summit because the SDF refused to agree to his condition to disarm. The SDF doesn't want to disarm because - as its commander, Gen. Mazloum Abdi, told BBC recently - "we are still at war with Turkey and its proxies." •Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu called for the "complete demilitarization" of southern Syria on Sunday, and Pres. al Sharaa responded yesterday by demanding that Israel withdraw from the Syrian positions it grabbed as Assad's government fell. Israel then showed it has no plans to withdraw by launching airstrikes on what the army described as "military targets in southern Syria, including headquarters and sites containing weapons." Ukraine •U.S. and Ukrainian officials announced that they'd reached a deal that would grant the U.S. a share of Ukrainian mineral revenues. •The specific terms of their agreement aren't yet clear because the final translated draft hasn't been released, but early reports suggest the U.S. would give Ukraine security guarantees in return for up to half of the revenues from Ukraine's future mineral sales. Russia •The EU revealed the targets of its 16th round of sanctions that was announced last week to mark the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Among the 48 individuals sanctioned was chess grandmaster Sergey Karjakin, who vocally endorsed the invasion and became a Russian senator representing Crimea. DRC •The UN's World Food Program estimated that around one million people have been displaced by fighting in eastern DRC in the first two months of 2025. That's roughly equivalent to the full-time population of Goma. It also seems debatable: other reports suggest that life in Goma and Bukavu is returning to semi-normal under Rwandan and rebel control. •The UK suspended its aid to Rwanda over Kigali's invasion of eastern DRC. Rwanda grumbled about the "punitive" suspension and accused the UK of having "clearly chosen a side." •Burundi chose Kinshasa's side too, and local reports noted Burundian soldiers heading to Uvira alongside pro-Kinshasa militias. •As if DRC needed more to worry about, health authorities reported the outbreak of what seems to be a new, deadly, and still unidentified illness in the northwest. The mystery disease started with three children who got sick after eating a bat; it has now infected over 430 people and killed at least 53 of them. Tests have ruled out Ebola and Marburg viruses. •Separately, Reuters reported that Kinshasa is considering imposing quotas on cobalt exports, and will evaluate the idea during the four-month export ban it announced Monday. Gaza •Hamas and Israel said they'd reached a deal to trade 600+ Palestinian prisoners for the remains of four slain hostages. Israel was supposed to free these prisoners last weekend, but postponed their release over anger at Hamas's darkly theatrical hostage release ceremonies. •The Times of Israel reported that Hamas has agreed not to dramatize today's swap - but it also noted that it broke a similar promise last time. China •Taiwan's coast guard detained a Chinese-linked cargo ship that it suspects of severing a subsea cable yesterday. China said the incident was just a "common maritime accident" and warned Taiwan against casting blame "while the basic facts and the people responsible for the accident have not yet been clarified." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 Dec Russia •Ukraine claimed responsibility for yesterday's assassination of Russian general Igor Kirillov in Moscow, justifying the hit as retribution for orchestrating the "massive use of banned chemical weapons" against Ukraine as chief of Russia's nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons protection forces. •The U.S. was no fan of Kirillov, who frequently promoted unproven propaganda campaigns against the West. Nonetheless, U.S. officials reportedly tried to dissuade Ukraine from targeting the general on Russian soil out of concern that such a high-profile assassination could provoke Pres. Putin to lash out in revenge. Syria •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu paid an unannounced visit to Mount Hermon in Syria and declared that Israeli forces would remain there on a temporary but indefinite basis, "until another arrangement is found that guarantees Israel’s security." •Syria's new leadership saw Netanyahu's declaration as an affront to the sovereignty they hope to establish in Syria. •As part of that quest for legitimacy, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) chief - and self-proclaimed "president" of Syria - Ahmed al Shara announced the dissolution of all independent armed groups in the country and the integration of all fighters under a unified Defense Ministry. That seems ambitious, given that these factions have little in common except a former mutual enemy - ex-Pres. Assad - who's now out of the picture. •Some rebel factions are busy waging their own wars. In the northeast, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) agreed to extend their temporary ceasefire "to the end of the week." After that, the Institute for the Study of War expects the SNA - perhaps alongside Turkish troops - to try to capture Kobani and other SDF-held territory. Gaza •Hamas said it is involved in "serious and positive talks" about a ceasefire in Gaza, and U.S. CIA Director Burns is in Qatar for meetings to try to finalize a truce and hostage release deal. Optimism is higher than usual, but hopes for a deal have been dashed before. Iran •A new Reuters report estimated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) now controls up to half Iran's oil exports - a marked rise from the 20% of oil exports it controlled three years ago. •One reason for bringing a greater share of oil exports under the IRGC is that it gives the IRGC direct control of the estimated $25 billion per year in revenues its share generates. That represents a huge part - nearly half - of the government's $53 billion annual budget, and presumably the vast majority of the funds the IRGC spends supporting its proxies and allies abroad. •It's also easier for the IRGC than it is for private oil traders to flout Western sanctions: the IRGC is already a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, so the threat of more sanctions certainly won't encourage cooperation with a geopolitical rival. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition president-elect, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, accepted the European Union's Sakharov Prize for human rights at the European Parliament yesterday. •In a speech after accepting the prize, Gonzalez vowed to go "back to Venezuela by land, air or sea" in time to be inaugurated as Venezuela's rightful president on Jan. 10. [Pres. Maduro - who all independent evidence suggests lost the July election to Gonzalez - is also planning to be inaugurated on Jan. 10.] •Meanwhile, even friendly Canada has slapped sanctions on some senior Venezuelan officials who helped Maduro steal the election. New sanctions target the head of the supreme court, two judges, a prosecutor, and a member of the electoral body. Mozambique •After battering Mayotte - where authorities are still assessing the extent of the damage - Cyclone Chido hit Mozambique, killing at least 34 and destroying over 23,000 homes. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 DEC Coming Up This Week •The UN Convention to Combat Desertification meets in Riyadh today through Dec. 13. •Pres. Biden is in Angola today through Wednesday for what will likely be his last presidential trip abroad. His visit will celebrate the Lobito Corridor - a $1 billion railway built with U.S. support to expand American access to Chinese-dominated critical minerals like Congolese cobalt. •Ghana goes to the polls on Saturday. Former president John Dramani Mahama is favored to win a fresh (non-consecutive) term. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,594/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,011/ton •Gold: $2,637/toz •Lead: $2,071/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.16/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.60/barrel •Zinc: $3,103/ton Syria •Syrian rebels continued to gain ground in Aleppo, capturing its airport and military academy. They now control an estimated half of the city and are encroaching on the outskirts of nearby Hama. •The attacks caught Syrian forces off-guard and they quickly pulled out of Aleppo. Syrian and Russian warplanes are retaliating with an assault on rebel positions in and around the opposition stronghold of Idlib. •Some analysts think Turkey's Pres. Erdogan incited the ongoing uprising to take advantage of an opportunity to gain ground against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) while Pres. Assad's backers are distracted abroad (Russia in Ukraine and Iran and its proxies by wars with Israel). •I wrote last week that one of the main rebel groups in the coalition fighting over Aleppo and Hama - Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) - is aligned with Al Qaeda, but that's inaccurate. Rather, one of HTS's precursors - Nusrah Front - was aligned with Al Qaeda, but severed ties over strategic disagreements in 2016 - one year before it merged with other anti-Assad groups to form HTS. •HTS retains Al Qaeda's Salafi-jihadist ideology, however, and several countries - including the U.S., EU, and Russia - designate HTS a terrorist group. (Turkey does, too, but still backs HTS's coalition partners when they fight the SDF and other Kurds). China •Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te left Saturday for his first international trip as president. He'll visit three of the 12 countries that still officially recognize Taiwan: Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau. •En route - at least geopolitically, though certainly not geographically - Lai will stop over in Hawaii to "make some visits" and "meet with old friends" - i.e., hold closed-door meetings with think tanks, pro-Taiwan expats, and perhaps even current U.S. officials. •It's become customary for Taiwanese presidents to jab at China by paying semi-official visits to the U.S., but Lai's visit to Hawaii isn't quite as provocative as his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen's visits to Los Angeles and New York. Nonetheless, it will irritate China, which analysts expect will retaliate with new military drills around Taiwan while Lai is away. Ukraine •In an interview with Sky News, Pres. Zelensky proposed an unlikely solution to end the war: he said Ukraine could agree to a truce if areas now under Ukrainian control were placed "under the NATO umbrella" with negotiations over areas now under Russian control to follow later. •That's not going to happen: Pres. Putin would reject the idea, and NATO isn't unanimously excited about welcoming any part of Ukraine under its umbrella. Mexico •The NYT profiled an unusual tactic Mexico's cartels are using to build their fentanyl empires: they're recruiting talented university chemistry students to add scientific know-how that improves synthetic drug production, Breaking Bad-style. One professor suspects some students are only enrolling in his chemistry classes to learn how to synthesize drugs - and not for the joy of studying chemistry. Sahel 1/2
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