Energy disruption, election unrest and shifting security ties span six regions

Off Leash update 12Nov Venezuela

•A gas pipeline exploded at the Muscar Operations Center in Venezuela's Eastern Monagas state yesterday, injuring at least five. •The blast also forced state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) to shut down the 63% of the country's fuel supply that comes from the facility. •Though Pres. Maduro may blame his usual bogeymen - the U.S. and its allies - early indications suggest the explosion happened because of poor maintenance and outdated equipment rather than sabotage. •It's not yet clear how long PDVSA's supply will be constrained. Mozambique •Opposition figure Venancio Mondlane called for new protests in Mozambique's cities, ports, and border posts tomorrow. •Authorities quickly - and apparently violently - quelled the first three rounds of demonstrations Mondlane incited against the election that he claims was stolen from him. •Countrywide internet restrictions make it hard to gauge the scale of the unrest, but a prominent Catholic leader said it's "already chaos." Gaza •Israel expanded one of Gaza's humanitarian zones in a token gesture towards meeting the Biden administration's demand to deliver more aid to Gaza or risk losing U.S. military funding. •Biden's national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, seemed to indicate that Biden's ultimatum on Gaza aid was a hollow one and Israel's progress on expanding aid won't be measured against any specific metrics: he told Face the Nation that the White House would evaluate "what sort of progress" Israel has made by tomorrow's deadline and then "make judgments about what we do in response." Iran •Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince MBS condemned Israel for committing "genocide" in Gaza and warned Israel against possible future direct strikes on Iran. •It was the harshest public criticism any Saudi official has made about the war, and perhaps a sign of Saudi's warming consideration for Iran, which sponsors the militants Israel is fighting in Gaza (and Yemen and Lebanon). •Separately, analysts are whispering that Pres. Trump could seek a new deal with Iran once he enters office. Under Pres. Pezeshkian - who is more moderate than his predecessor - Iran could welcome an accord. China •China's military showed off the new, Blackhawk-like Z-20 helicopter at the Zhuhai air show. •Pentagon analysts studied the model while it was being developed, and noted in a recent public report that it "will provide significant improvements in ASW (anti-submarine warfare) capabilities over the smaller... helicopters the PLAN [People's Liberation Army Navy] currently operates." North Korea •Kim Jong Un formally ratified North Korea's Comprehensive Strategic Partnership treaty with Russia last night, per state media. [Russia already ratified it last week, so with Kim's decree and the exchange of signed documents it will take effect.] •The pact formalizes the mutual defense support that North Korea and Russia are already lending each other, but it doesn't bind them to any specific commitments to come to each other's aid if certain red lines are crossed.