Tensions across the Middle East, East Asia, Russia and Venezuela

Off Leash update. 15 October

Iran •According to a Washington Post report, Israeli PM Netanyahu gave Pres. Biden his word that Israel would not strike Iranian nuclear facilities or oil assets in retaliation for Iran's ballistic missile barrage earlier this month. Per WaPo, Netanyahu said Israel's retaliation would instead focus on Iranian military targets. •Oil markets believe Netanyahu - oil prices dropped as fears of a supply disruption eased - but that doesn't mean Israel has truly ruled out targeting nuclear or oil assets. U.S. officials don't always take Netanyahu at his word - Bob Woodward's new book recounts Biden privately calling Netanyahu a "fucking liar" in the past - and Netanyahu's own office even walked back his commitment to avoid striking nuclear or oil targets. A new statement from Netanyahu's office said the PM will consider U.S. input but make final decisions in its national interest. Gaza •Israeli strikes targeted a Hamas command center stationed near the Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Gaza. The resulting fire killed or injured dozens of Gazans who'd taken shelter at the hospital. •Hamas often hides its command centers amidst civilians in the hope that their presence will dissuade Israeli strikes. But according to a new NYT report, Israel has also been using human shields. The NYT says Israeli troops have "regularly forced captured Gazans to carry out life-threatening tasks" like scoping out Hamas tunnels or abandoned buildings for booby-traps. North Korea •North Korea accused South Korea of flying leaflet-dropping drones over Pyongyang for a third time this month, and lashed out in a symbolic response by dramatically demolishing unused roads that once connected the two neighbors. •Kim Jong Un and his sister, Kim Yo Jong, had threatened "immediate military action" in retaliation to the alleged drone incursions, but they're unlikely to instigate anything more provocative than blowing up some cracked asphalt: Pyongyang knows better than to goad a better-armed adversary into open conflict. China •Taiwan counted a record 153 Chinese warplanes participating in the one-day "Joint Sword-2024B" military drills that Beijing launched in reaction to a provocative speech by Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te. •Taiwanese officials complained that "Any drills without prior warning will cause great disturbance to peace and stability in the entire region." Russia •A new report by the Ukraine-based Kyiv School of Economics Institute estimated that almost 70% of Russia's oil is being transported by its fleet of unregistered "shadow tankers." •According to the Kyiv institute, Russia uses its shadow fleet to evade sanctions and sell oil above the $60 per barrel price cap set for it, earning it $15-60 per barrel more. Multiplied by its estimated shadow fleet volumes of up to 120 million barrels per month, that's a lucrative workaround. •The Kyiv institute also warned that the shadow tankers are usually uninsured or underinsured, and have an average age of 18 years. Several have already run aground or collided with other ships. If one were to cause a major oil spill, it's unlikely Russia - which denies any official links to the shadow fleet - would pay for cleanup. Venezuela •Venezuela's sanctioned Attorney General, Tarek Saab, bizarrely accused Brazil's Pres. Lula and Chile's Pres. Boric of being CIA agents - because why else would they join the U.S. (and dozens of other countries) in questioning the legitimacy of Pres. Maduro's bogus claim to have won re-election? •Separately, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado made a moving audio appeal to Venezuelan soldiers to stop supporting a "regime that's on its way out" and join the opposition in forming a "new republic." •It's widely known that many Venezuelan soldiers - spanning all ranks and across all military branches - already quietly support the opposition and would defect as soon as they feel safe doing so. Appeals like Machado's may help turn the tide.