Political transitions and conflict developments across Bangladesh, China, Venezuela, Gaza, Russia and the Sahel

Off Leash Update 7 Aug

Bangladesh •Student protesters in Bangladesh demanded that Pres. Shahabuddin ask Nobel peace prize winner Muhammad Yunus to lead the interim government after PM Hasina fled the country. •Yunus - who founded Grameen Bank, the world's first major microfinance lender, and was persecuted under Hasina's government - immediately agreed. •China finally bowed to U.S. pressure and enacted restrictions on three chemicals used to make fentanyl. •An estimated 100,000+ people (perhaps far more) Americans died from synthetic opioid overdoses in 2023, and China is one of the main sources of the chemicals used to make synthetic opioids. That's why the Biden administration has sought China's cooperation against fentanyl trafficking for almost three years. •These new chemical restrictions aren't a perfect solution, but they're a start. However, analysts believe China will point to this minor concession to demand larger U.S. concessions on issues it cares more about, like reducing tariffs or relaxing rules on exporting sensitive tech to China. •Separately, China used a Long March 6A carrier rocket to launch the first 18 of the "Thousand Sails" internet satellites that will eventually form a 15,000-satellite constellation to rival SpaceX's Starlink. Venezuela •Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico are urging Pres. Maduro and the opposition to respect Venezuelan law and lodge their appeals over the election Maduro stole through the appropriate channels (which include courts Maduro has stacked). •While that's not as forceful of a statement against the stolen election as other world powers have made, it's still significant that the three leftist-led countries have declined to recognize Maduro's re-election. It would be bolder of them to reject it - as the U.S. and EU have done. •The NYT reported that Maduro thought he had the election locked up, but was then surprised when supporters turned against him and voted for the opposition instead. •Maduro bizarrely blamed "international Zionism" for what he called a "coup d'etat" in the media's coverage of the election, which consistently shows him losing the vote. He still shows no inclination to admit his official stats are wrong. Gaza •Hamas appointed Yahya Sinwar - a bellicose senior figure thought to be the architect of the Oct. 7 attacks - to succeed Ismail Haniyeh as the group's political leader. •That collapses the chances of a near-term peace deal to near zero. •Roughly 300 Ukrainian (and pro-Ukrainian Russian) fighters in U.S.-made Stryker vehicles launched an incursion into Kursk, Russia yesterday morning, marking the largest Ukrainian attack on Russia since the war began. A Forbes staff op-ed called the operation "pointless" and "a shameful waste of precious military resources." •Russia says it repelled the incursion, but it reported three "civilian" deaths and at least 18 injuries. Ukraine says its fighters took out two T-62 tanks and a Kamov Ka-52 helicopter (with its crew), and took a few prisoners. Some reports say it's not over yet. •Separately, The Economist estimated that Russia's summer onslaught is forcing Ukraine to retreat by up to one kilometer per day. Sahel •Niger joined its fellow junta state, Mali, in cutting off diplomatic ties with Ukraine after Ukraine's alleged support for Tuareg rebels that embarrassed the Wagner mercenaries fighting alongside Malian soldiers in the north late last month. •Ukraine tacitly acknowledged supporting the Tuaregs, saying the rebels "received all the necessary information they needed" to locate and fight the Wagner-backed soldiers. •Russia didn't refer to the Tuaregs by name, but as "armed terrorist groups." That's misleading, because they're mostly ethnic Berber nomads and not Al Qaeda or Islamic State-aligned jihadists. But calling them "terrorists" helps Russia portray the Mali battle as part of the "Africa front" it accuses Ukraine of opening in their war.