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Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel to seek a ceasefire and hostage agreement after the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. It adds that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had indicated he was not ready to end the war.
Unverified development · updated through
Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel to seek a ceasefire and hostage agreement after the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. It adds that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had indicated he was not ready to end the war.
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Yahya Sinwar dossier
5 mapped developments across 4 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Israel and Gaza
The ICC chief prosecutor requested arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and Yahya Sinwar for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
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Chronology
Off Leash update 22 October Venezuela •Venezuelan police arrested former oil minister Pedro Tellechea and accused him of sharing key internal documents from state oil company PDVSA with "a company controlled by the US Intelligence Services." •Tellechea had just resigned from his post as Minister of Industry and National Production on Friday, citing health reasons. •He's the fourth Venezuelan oil minister since 2017 - out of five who have served in that time - to be arrested on similar allegations. Russia •Former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan spoke for the first time about his experience in the Russian prison system before his release in a swap this summer. •In an interview with CBS (https://t.co/ao8FzNaObF), Whelan called prison conditions "monotonous and filthy," and said he passed information from fellow prisoners who fought on the front lines in Ukraine along to Western officials using burner phones. •In other news about ex-Russian prisoners, murdered dissident Alexey Navalny's memoirs (titled "Patriot") come out today. The Economist called the book "a passionate and moving testimony to Russia’s extreme violence." Argentina •Argentina's Pres. Milei - who campaigned with a chainsaw symbolizing his pledge to slash the size of the bureaucracy - took another bold step towards that promise by dissolving the country's bloated revenue service, Administración Federal de Ingresos Públicos (AFIP). •Milei announced the creation of a new entity - Agencia de Recaudación y Control Aduanero (ARCA) - to replace AFIP. ARCA's directors will get paid 90% less than AFIP's, while salaries at lower levels of ARCA will see smaller reductions of 30%. Hezbollah and Hamas •SecState Blinken landed in Israel today to try to convince PM Netanyahu's government to agree to a ceasefire and hostage deal now that Israel's Enemy No. 1 - Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar - is dead. That won't be easy: Netanyahu has indicated that he isn't ready to end the war yet. •Israel's army declassified intelligence about one of the targets of its airstrikes aimed at cutting off Hezbollah's funding: a vault with tens of millions of dollars in gold and cash. •It's unclear whether the Israeli airstrikes destroyed that money, but the IDF also said it had not yet targeted a separate vault hidden under a hospital in Beirut that contains much more: "at least half a billion dollars in dollar bills and gold." A spokesman added: "This money could and still can be used to rebuild the state of Lebanon." Iran •Over the weekend, two documents purporting to show Five Eyes-only U.S. intelligence analysis of Israel's possible plans to retaliate on Iran for its ballistic missile barrage were posted on Telegram and then shared widely - especially within Iran. •The fact that the White House said Pres. Biden was "deeply concerned" about the unauthorized release of the files - plus the fact that they were first publicized by a pro-Iran account, Middle East Spectator - suggests the U.S. didn't deliberately leak them and they may have been stolen by hackers instead. •Most foreign airlines have paused flights to Iran in anticipation of Israel's retaliation. DRC •Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured the North Kivu town of Kalembe, ending a ceasefire signed in August after years of Angolan mediation. Few believed the truce would last as long as it took DRC and the M23 to agree to it. Other News •Moldova confirmed that its referendum on (eventually) joining the EU was approved - though the vote was too close to call yesterday, thanks in part to Russia's meddling to buy 300,000 votes against the measure. Pres. Sandu called the Russian intervention "fraud of an unprecedented scale."
Open source reportOff leash update 17 October ***The IDF successfully eliminated Hama's leader Yahya Sinwar Venezuela •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado denied Pres. Maduro's claim that she's fled the country for Spain: "Venezuelans know that I am here in Venezuela, the people know it and Nicolas Maduro also knows it." •Machado remains - wisely - in hiding and out of reach of police seeking to arrest her on bogus, politically-motivated charges. She told an independent TV channel that Maduro and his cronies "are desperate to know where I am and I'm not going to give them that pleasure." Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky was deprived of an opportunity to do a grand reveal of his "victory plan" during last week's multilateral meeting on Ukraine, but he instead pitched the plan bilaterally during a whirlwind tour meeting leaders of the UK, U.S., France, Italy, and Germany. •Yesterday, Zelensky shared the high-level plan with Ukraine's parliament and the media. •Its centerpiece is a request for NATO to extend an unconditional invitation to Ukraine to join its alliance - which has not been forthcoming - and it also calls on partners to expand their military support for Ukraine. •None of the plan's five public points contained any major new proposals - yet Zelensky insisted that "if we start implementing this Victory Plan now, we may be able to end the war no later than next year." (The plan also proposed three "secret" points that were selectively shared with partners). •So far, it's received a muted response. NATO's SecGen, Mark Rutte, said the alliance would "take note" of Zelensky's proposal, and several partners announced minor new aid packages (the U.S. offered $425 million in fresh military support - including for air defenses - and Australia said it would send Ukraine 50 old M1 Abrams tanks worth $164 million). Hezbollah •Israel brushed off a U.S. warning that it "had concerns with and [is] opposed to" Israel's strikes on Beirut and carried out more airstrikes on Hezbollah targets near the Lebanese capital yesterday, killing at least 16. •Israel didn't officially comment on the other U.S. critique conveyed yesterday - an ultimatum to improve aid flows to Gaza within 30 days or risk losing access to new U.S. weapons - but there was a slight uptick in humanitarian aid flows to Gaza. Yesterday, 50 aid trucks entered the strip - more than the recent rate of 30 per day but still far short of the 350 per day that aid officials say Gazans need. Iran •U.S. B-2 Spirit bombers targeted five underground Houthi weapons facilities yesterday. •The airstrikes were ostensibly carried out to "further degrade the Houthis' capability" to threaten Red Sea shipping, but the choice to use B-2s to strike underground targets was also intended to send a message to Iran that its underground nuclear sites could be next. •(The B-2 is the only U.S. plane that can carry the largest "bunker buster" bombs capable of destroying Iran's underground nuclear sites, and it has never before been used in Yemen - where F/A-18s can do the same job cheaper and with less fleet risk). •SecDef Austin alluded to the Yemen operation being a broader signal to Iran by calling it: "a unique demonstration of the United States’ ability to target facilities that our adversaries seek to keep out of reach, no matter how deeply buried underground, hardened or fortified." •Separately, there are unconfirmed reports that Iranian border guards massacred dozens - or perhaps scores - of Afghans trying to illegally enter Iran from Pakistan on Sunday. •Beijing's latest war games succeeded in scaring Taiwan. A senior Taiwanese security official told Reuters that the unprecedented drills showed that the People's Liberation Army is "increasing the building up of their capacity to turn military exercises into a conflict" and assessed that "this drill presented more of a threat than ever before to Taiwan."
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 Sept Venezuela •In a bid to distract Venezuelans while he tries to steal the presidency, Pres. Maduro announced that Christmas in Venezuela will take place almost three months early this year, on October 1. •Maduro has pre-poned Christmas twice before - in 2021 and 2023 - both to boost the economy by injecting bonuses for public employees and holiday handouts for supporters. This year's early holiday will bring the added benefit of rewarding loyal supporters for turning a blind eye to his election theft. •Cynical Venezuelans complain that holding Christmas early won't make it any merrier: either way, they can't afford gifts or holiday feasts because of runaway inflation under Maduro's bad economic policies. •The Venezuelan Episcopal Conference also wasn't joyous about the date change: it issued a statement reiterating that "Christmas commences on December 25" and chiding that Jesus's birthday "is not to be used for political or propaganda goals." Ukraine •Russia targeted a Ukrainian military academy and nearby hospital in Poltava, killing at least 51 people - including many cadets. •Poltava is around 100 miles (160 km) from the Russian border, and the supersonic missiles flew so fast that air raid sirens sounded only minutes before the attack, giving cadets and residents insufficient time to reach shelter. Many of those killed were on their way to a shelter when they were struck down. •More Russian missiles struck the city of Lviv on the Polish border overnight, killing at least seven. •Separately, Foreign Minister Kuleba resigned as part of Pres. Zelensky's reshuffle to "strengthen some areas in the government" ahead of "an extremely important autumn." Rumors suggest Kuleba will be replaced by Andriy Sybiha, a career diplomat who's currently the deputy head of Zelensky's office. Gaza •The U.S. Justice Department unsealed indictments charging Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and five other senior Hamas members for a wide range of crimes against American citizens, including - but also predating - the Oct. 7 attacks. •The charges are mostly symbolic - and three of those indicted are already dead anyway - but the indictments would allow the U.S. to put Sinwar and the other two on trial if they survive the war and are apprehended. China •China retaliated against Canada's new tariffs on cheap Chinese electric vehicle (EV) exports by launching a dumping inquiry into Canadian rapeseed (canola), which is a far more important export market for Canada than EVs. Over half of Canada's exported canola goes to China, earning Canada C$5 billion ($3.7 billion) in sales. Ottawa called the probe "deeply concerning." •Separately, New York accused an ex-gubernatorial aide of acting as a foreign agent for China by accepting Chinese money for political favors like denying Taiwanese officials meetings with the governor and other officials. Iraq •U.S. and Iraqi commandos carried out an unusual joint raid on Islamic State militants hiding out in Anbar, killing at least 15 jihadists - including some senior leaders. At least six U.S. soldiers suffered injuries. Libya •Libya's rival legislatures agreed to appoint a mutually agreeable candidate to lead the central bank within 30 days, raising hope for an end to the bank's leadership crisis. •Oil markets are optimistic that they'll resolve their dispute and Libya will start pumping oil again: oil prices fell 4% on weak demand and the prospect of Libyan oil reentering an already-oversupplied market. Other News •Romania, Hungary, Georgia, and Azerbaijan kicked off an ambitious project to lay a power line under the Black Sea to bring energy from Azerbaijan's Caspian wind farms to the EU. •The project was approved in 2022 and became urgent quickly after Russia invaded Ukraine, forcing the EU to seek alternate energy supplies.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 7 Aug Bangladesh •Student protesters in Bangladesh demanded that Pres. Shahabuddin ask Nobel peace prize winner Muhammad Yunus to lead the interim government after PM Hasina fled the country. •Yunus - who founded Grameen Bank, the world's first major microfinance lender, and was persecuted under Hasina's government - immediately agreed. •China finally bowed to U.S. pressure and enacted restrictions on three chemicals used to make fentanyl. •An estimated 100,000+ people (perhaps far more) Americans died from synthetic opioid overdoses in 2023, and China is one of the main sources of the chemicals used to make synthetic opioids. That's why the Biden administration has sought China's cooperation against fentanyl trafficking for almost three years. •These new chemical restrictions aren't a perfect solution, but they're a start. However, analysts believe China will point to this minor concession to demand larger U.S. concessions on issues it cares more about, like reducing tariffs or relaxing rules on exporting sensitive tech to China. •Separately, China used a Long March 6A carrier rocket to launch the first 18 of the "Thousand Sails" internet satellites that will eventually form a 15,000-satellite constellation to rival SpaceX's Starlink. Venezuela •Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico are urging Pres. Maduro and the opposition to respect Venezuelan law and lodge their appeals over the election Maduro stole through the appropriate channels (which include courts Maduro has stacked). •While that's not as forceful of a statement against the stolen election as other world powers have made, it's still significant that the three leftist-led countries have declined to recognize Maduro's re-election. It would be bolder of them to reject it - as the U.S. and EU have done. •The NYT reported that Maduro thought he had the election locked up, but was then surprised when supporters turned against him and voted for the opposition instead. •Maduro bizarrely blamed "international Zionism" for what he called a "coup d'etat" in the media's coverage of the election, which consistently shows him losing the vote. He still shows no inclination to admit his official stats are wrong. Gaza •Hamas appointed Yahya Sinwar - a bellicose senior figure thought to be the architect of the Oct. 7 attacks - to succeed Ismail Haniyeh as the group's political leader. •That collapses the chances of a near-term peace deal to near zero. •Roughly 300 Ukrainian (and pro-Ukrainian Russian) fighters in U.S.-made Stryker vehicles launched an incursion into Kursk, Russia yesterday morning, marking the largest Ukrainian attack on Russia since the war began. A Forbes staff op-ed called the operation "pointless" and "a shameful waste of precious military resources." •Russia says it repelled the incursion, but it reported three "civilian" deaths and at least 18 injuries. Ukraine says its fighters took out two T-62 tanks and a Kamov Ka-52 helicopter (with its crew), and took a few prisoners. Some reports say it's not over yet. •Separately, The Economist estimated that Russia's summer onslaught is forcing Ukraine to retreat by up to one kilometer per day. Sahel •Niger joined its fellow junta state, Mali, in cutting off diplomatic ties with Ukraine after Ukraine's alleged support for Tuareg rebels that embarrassed the Wagner mercenaries fighting alongside Malian soldiers in the north late last month. •Ukraine tacitly acknowledged supporting the Tuaregs, saying the rebels "received all the necessary information they needed" to locate and fight the Wagner-backed soldiers. •Russia didn't refer to the Tuaregs by name, but as "armed terrorist groups." That's misleading, because they're mostly ethnic Berber nomads and not Al Qaeda or Islamic State-aligned jihadists. But calling them "terrorists" helps Russia portray the Mali battle as part of the "Africa front" it accuses Ukraine of opening in their war.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 May Iran •Iranian state media blamed the helicopter crash that killed Pres. Raisi on "technical failure," and that seems like a reasonable explanation for it: the Bell 212 helicopter Raisi was flying in was over 40 years old and weather conditions were poor. •Ayatollah Khamenei lamented the loss of his protégé Raisi, but vowed that there would be "no disruption" to the government. That's true: Iran's president is a figurehead beholden to the clerics, who will ensure that Raisi's successor is another conservative hardliner. Gaza •The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor requested arrest warrants for both Israeli PM Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar for war crimes and crimes against humanity, emphasizing that "international law and the laws of armed conflict apply to all." •In this case, those laws probably won't be applied to either Netanyahu or Sinwar in court: even if judges decide to issue the requested warrants, the process would take months, and neither Israel nor Gaza recognizes the court's authority, so Netanyahu and Sinwar would be safe from arrest as long as they don't travel to any of the court's 124 member countries. •Separately, U.S National Security Advisor Sullivan traveled to Israel to nudge PM Netanyahu toward a ceasefire agreement linked to a "political strategy" for Gaza's future. China •China added three U.S. defense contractors that sell to Taiwan - General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, General Dynamics Land Systems and Boeing Defense, Space & Security - to its list of "unreliable entities" that are banned from exporting to or importing from China. •A U.S. Senate inquiry found that BMW, Jaguar Land Rover, and Volkswagen imported parts purchased (indirectly) from a Chinese supplier known to use forced labor in Xinjiang province. Sen. Wyden (D-OR) blamed the manufacturers for not doing enough to vet their suppliers: "automakers are sticking their heads in the sand and then swearing they can’t find any forced labor in their supply chains." Ukraine •Ukraine implemented nationwide rolling blackouts for the first time this year to conserve precious power supplies, which have been constrained by Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. •Russia's offensive in northern Ukraine has slowed down, and Ukrainian forces are holding the Russians back between Kharkiv and the border. Afghanistan •An explosion in the Taliban's political heartland of Kandahar killed at least one person yesterday. •The Taliban's official statements depicted the blast as a minor incident that randomly targeted civilians, but local reports claimed it was a much more serious attack that targeted Taliban security forces, killing far more than one person. Saudi Arabia •Saudi's King Salman is suffering from a lung infection and it's severe enough that his son, Crown Prince MBS, postponed a planned trip to Japan to be with his ailing father. Other News •The UK's High Court ruled that WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange can appeal his pending extradition to the U.S. to face charges under the Espionage Act. He will try to appeal on the basis that - as a foreign national (he's Australian) - he wouldn't get a fair trial in the U.S.
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