Gaza diplomacy, El Fasher threat, and overseas covert action

Off Leash April 30 Gaza •Ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel may resume in Cairo shortly - if Hamas agrees to send negotiators. •Israeli officials confirmed that they've made concessions in the interest of closing a ceasefire deal: they're now open to a ceasefire in exchange for the release of 20 to 33 hostages - down from the previous demand of 40 hostages. •Hamas had trouble locating 40 hostages fitting the previous offer's criteria for release (elderly, ill, or female) but should have an easier time finding 20 to 33 hostages to free. And it's in Hamas's interest to close a deal before Israeli ground troops enter Rafah, so we may see some progress towards a deal this week. •It sounds like the biggest negotiating gap now is how long a ceasefire would last: Hamas prefers a longer one that lets it stay in power, while Israel wants a shorter-term deal so it can secure the release of hostages but eventually return to routing Hamas's leadership. •Separately, the International Court of Justice will issue a provisional ruling today in Nicaragua's flimsy case against Germany for aiding genocide in Gaza by sending weapons to Israel. A finding against Germany could make other countries think twice before sending weapons to Israel. Middle East •The EU's top diplomat said that several EU nations - including Spain, Ireland, Belgium, Slovenia, and Malta - plan to recognize Palestinian statehood within the next month. Israel criticized the idea and said it offered Palestinian leaders a "prize for terrorism." •Separately, the NYT printed an excellent piece on the delicate tightrope Arab leaders in Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Kuwait, etc. are walking between sympathizing with fellow Muslims in Gaza and suppressing public demonstrations supporting Gaza, which could churn up anger against their strict regimes. Sudan •Sudan's Rapid Support Forces are eyeing an assault on El Fasher, which is the last major city in Darfur still controlled by the government. •The fight for El Fasher would be a bloody one, with echoes of the genocide that began there around 20 years ago and killed up to 300,000 people. Iraq •A motorcycle assassin shot dead one of Iraq's most famous TikTok personalities - a woman stage-named Um Fahad - on Friday. •It's not clear who ordered Um Fahad's killing or why she was targeted, but her flamboyant posts made her conservative enemies - as well as 460,000 followers. •She was the third young Iraqi social media personality killed in the past year. Iran •The BBC published a leaked document from Iran's security forces indicating that its guards were responsible for the 2022 death of 16-year-old protester Nika Shakarami - and that they sexually assaulted her before killing her and dumping her body to be found nine days later. The government initially claimed she died by suicide. •The BBC investigated carefully (its article states: "There are numerous fake Iranian official documents in circulation, so the BBC spent months checking every detail with multiple sources"), and these new revelations seem legit. Afghanistan •A gunman attacked a Shia mosque in Herat, western Afghanistan, killing six civilians. No group has claimed the attack yet, but Islamic State is known to target Shias in the region. Other News •The Washington Post published the clearest evidence yet linking India's spy agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), to the attempted assassination of a vocal critic of PM Modi on U.S. soil in 2023, and even identified the RAW official leading the operation by name. •India rejected the report, calling its claims "unwarranted, unsubstantiated imputations."